What are the highlights of these top ten technological trends?
Trend 1 AI for Science
Artificial intelligence has become a new production tool for scientists, giving birth to a new paradigm of scientific research.
Experimental science and theoretical science are two basic paradigms in the scientific community for hundreds of years, and artificial intelligence is giving birth to a new scientific research paradigm. Machine learning can handle multi-dimensional and multi-modal massive data, solve scientific problems in complex scenes, and lead scientific exploration to new areas that could not be touched in the past. Artificial intelligence will not only accelerate the scientific research process, but also help to discover new scientific laws. It is predicted that in the next three years, artificial intelligence will be widely used in applied science and become a production tool for scientists in some basic sciences.
Co-evolution of trend two-size model
The large-scale model parameter competition enters the cooling-off period, and the large and small models will co-evolve at the edge of the cloud.
Summary Ultra-large-scale pre-training model is a breakthrough exploration from weak artificial intelligence to general artificial intelligence, which solves the application fragmentation problem of traditional deep learning, but the efficiency problem that performance is disproportionate to energy consumption limits the continuous expansion of parameter scale. The research of artificial intelligence will move from the parameter competition of large model to the co-evolution of large and small models. The large model will export the model ability to the small models at the edge and end, and the small model will be responsible for the actual reasoning and execution. At the same time, the small model will feed back the algorithm and execution effect to the large model, so that the ability of the large model will be continuously strengthened and an intelligent system with organic circulation will be formed.
Trend 3 silicon optical chip
Optoelectronic fusion has the advantages of photons and electrons, breaking through Moore's Law.
The development of electronic chips approaches the limit of Moore's Law, and it is difficult to meet the increasing data throughput requirements of high-performance computing. Silicon optical chip uses photons instead of electrons to transmit information, which can carry more information and transmit longer distances, and has the advantages of high computational density and low energy consumption. With the explosion of cloud computing and artificial intelligence, silicon optical chips have ushered in rapid iteration of technology and rapid development of industrial chain. It is predicted that in the next three years, silicon optical chips will carry high-speed information transmission in most large data centers.
Trend 4 green energy AI
Artificial intelligence helps large-scale green energy consumption and realizes a multi-energy complementary power system.
Summary The rapid development of green energy such as wind power and photovoltaic in recent years has also brought about problems such as difficulty in grid connection and low absorption rate, and even the phenomenon of "abandoning wind" and "abandoning light". The core reason is that green energy has the characteristics of volatility, randomness and peak reversal, and large-scale grid connection may affect the safe and stable operation of the power grid. The application of artificial intelligence technology will effectively improve the ability of energy systems such as power grid to absorb diversified power sources and coordinate multiple energy sources, become technical support to improve energy utilization and stability, and promote the process of carbon neutrality. It is predicted that in the next three years, artificial intelligence technology will help the power system to realize large-scale green energy consumption and realize the safe, efficient and stable operation of the power system.
Trend five flexible sensing robot
The robot will have both flexibility and humanoid perception, and can accomplish a variety of tasks adaptively.
Traditional robots rely on pre-programming and are limited to structured scenes such as large production lines. In recent years, flexible robots have acquired the sensing abilities of force, vision and sound by combining flexible electronics, force sensing and control, and artificial intelligence technologies, and their versatility in coping with multi-tasks and adaptability in coping with environmental changes have been greatly improved. Robots will move from large-scale and standardized production lines to small-scale and non-standardized scenes. It is expected that in the next five years, flexible sensing robots will gradually replace traditional industrial robots, become the main equipment on the production line, and begin to be applied on a large scale in the field of service robots.
Trend 6 High-precision medical navigation
The deep integration of artificial intelligence and precision medical care helps improve the accuracy and efficiency of diagnosis and treatment.
Traditional medical treatment depends on doctors' experience, just like manual route finding, with uneven results. The deep integration of artificial intelligence and precision medicine, and the organic combination of expert experience and new auxiliary diagnosis technology will become a high-precision navigation system for clinical medicine, providing automatic guidance for doctors, helping medical decisions to be faster and more accurate, and realizing quantification, computability, predictability and prevention of major diseases. It is expected that in the next three years, people-centered precision medical care will become the main direction, and artificial intelligence will fully penetrate all aspects of disease prevention and diagnosis and treatment, and become a high-precision navigation collaboration for disease prevention and diagnosis and treatment.
Trend 7 Global Privacy Computing
Solve the dilemma between data protection and circulation, and privacy computing will move towards global data protection.
Summary Data security protection and data circulation is a dilemma in the digital age, and the solution is privacy computing. In the past, due to performance bottlenecks, insufficient technical trust, and inconsistent standards, privacy computing can only be applied in scenarios with a small amount of data. With the integration and development of special chip, encryption algorithm, white-box and data trust technology, privacy computing is expected to leapfrog to mass data protection, and data sources will expand to the whole world, stimulating new productivity in the digital age. It is expected that in the next three years, global privacy computing technology will make a new breakthrough in performance and interpretability, or data trust institutions will provide data sharing services based on privacy computing.
Trend eight-star calculation
The communication and calculation of satellite and ground integration promote the comprehensive digitalization of air, land and sea.
Digital services based on ground network and computing are limited to densely populated areas, and no man's land such as deep space, ocean and desert is still a blank area for services. High-low orbit satellite communication and ground mobile communication will be seamlessly connected to form an integrated three-dimensional network of air, land and sea. Because computing moves with the network, satellite-to-earth computing will integrate satellite system, air network, ground communication and cloud computing, and become a new computing architecture, expanding the space of digital services. It is predicted that the number of LEO satellites will increase explosively in the next three years, and satellites and their ground systems will become new computing nodes.
Trend Nine Cloud Network Convergence
Cloud-end convergence forms a new computing system, giving birth to new species on the cloud.
Summary The development of new network technology will promote cloud computing to a new computing system with cloud network integration, and realize the professional division of labor at the cloud network: the cloud will be the brain, responsible for centralized computing and global data processing; As a connection, the network integrates various network forms through the cloud to form a network with low delay and wide coverage; As an interactive interface, the terminal presents multiple forms, which can provide a thin, long-lasting and immersive experience. Cloud-network convergence will promote the birth of new applications such as high-precision industrial simulation, real-time industrial quality inspection and virtual-real integration space. It is expected that in the next two years, a large number of new applications will run in the new computing system of cloud network convergence.
Trend X XR Internet
XR glasses will become an important interactive interface and drive the development of the next generation Internet.
Summary With the development of end-cloud collaborative computing, network communication, digital twinning and other technologies, XR (Future Virtual and Real Integration) Internet with immersive experience as the core will usher in an explosive period. Glasses are expected to become a new human-computer interaction interface, promote the formation of XR Internet which is different from the flat Internet, and give birth to a new industrial ecology from components, equipment, operating systems to applications. XR Internet will reshape the form of digital applications and change the interactive ways of entertainment, social interaction, work, shopping, education, medical care and other scenes. It is expected that in the next three years, a new generation of XR glasses with a shape and weight close to ordinary glasses will be produced, which will become the key entrance of the next generation Internet.
In addition to AI for Science and silicon optical chips, this 10 frontier technology also includes the rapid development of technologies such as flexible sensing robots and XR Internet.
Many people were deeply impressed by the robot Atlas of Boston Dynamics.
The field of robotics is changing. Traditional robots rely on pre-programming and can only be used for specific tasks in structured scenes such as large production lines. However, in recent years, combined with flexible electronics, force sensing and control, and artificial intelligence technology, robots are gaining the sensing abilities of force, vision, sound, etc., and their versatility and adaptability are greatly improved.
In other words, the robot is expected to become a generalist in the future, able to handle a variety of tasks, and can improvise. This will increase the popularity of robots.
It is predicted that in the next five years, the flexible sensing robot will gradually replace the traditional industrial robot and become the main equipment on the production line, and it will be applied on a large scale in the field of service robots.
Dharma Institute also predicts that new network technologies will promote the convergence of cloud networks into a new computing architecture. The cloud will serve as the brain and the terminal as the interactive interface, focusing on the user experience.
Future terminals will not be limited to PCs and mobile phones. Any ordinary device, even a screen, can have a super brain, and computing basically happens in the cloud.
This trend will accelerate the arrival of XR Internet with immersive experience as the core.
Dharma Institute believes that it is expected that in the next three years, a new generation of XR glasses whose shape and weight are close to ordinary glasses will be produced and become the key entrance of the next generation Internet.