Many experts predict that the pig price in 10 is risky.
First of all, for live pigs in September, the state adopted frequent control policies to stabilize the price of live pigs, especially in the central and local governments, and the monthly turnover of 200,000 tons was also a new high.
Secondly, interview a number of pig enterprises and a number of media to reduce the heat of the pig market.
Moreover, the current market consumption is still insufficient, and there is still a gap from expectations.
This year, under the influence of macro-economy, the market consumption is obviously lower than in previous years, which has played a restraining role in pig prices.
In many areas, the price of live pigs has exceeded per catty 12 yuan. With the gradual recovery of farmers' profits, the increase in pig prices is obviously insufficient.
After the National Day holiday, the price of pigs is still rising, constantly breaking new highs. In many areas, the price of foreign three yuan has reached a high price per catty 12.5 yuan.
10 what is the support for the continuous increase in pig prices?
On the one hand, the hot flashes in the market are not decreasing, and then the weather is getting colder and colder. With the increasing rainfall, many farmers are reluctant to sell, which leads to increased efforts.
After the pig price rebounded in late June and early July, the market has been in a bullish state. In the case that the market has been regulated and the rising sentiment has not been suppressed, especially in the fourth quarter, 10 is the traditional peak season for pork consumption, and the enthusiasm for rising sentiment in the market has not diminished.
On the other hand, during the National Day, the pork market consumption increased compared with the first half of the year. In addition, when the pig price is at a low level and the slaughter quantity increases, the supply of fertilizer in the market decreases, which has played a certain role in promoting the pig price.
How will the trend of 10 live pigs develop after the National Day holiday? Industry insiders predict that there may be certain risks in the follow-up pig price.
One is to increase the cost of breeding, and the other is to increase the risk of breeding.
As the price of pigs rises, so does the price of feed. Because the cost of breeding accounts for 60%, the price of soybean meal is stable for a short time, but it has been at a high price. In addition, the price of corn as the main raw material of feed is also higher than in previous years, and the price of corn is not stable. In the follow-up, the probability of corn falling is small, and the bottom price still exists. Therefore, on the whole, the increase in feed prices drives the increase in breeding costs, which has certain risks for subsequent breeding.
Second, pork consumption has not reached its peak in June 5438+ 10.
1 October1day national day holiday has driven a wave of market consumption, and the price of live pigs has rebounded to a certain extent. However, from this year's point of view, the continuous rise of pig prices during the National Day compared with last year is caused by multiple factors, but the mainstream factor is not market consumption. After all, only by reaching the peak of market consumption can the price rise play a certain supporting role.
For the peak of market consumption, it will appear during the Spring Festival of 165438+ 10, 65438+February, 65438+ 10. After the National Day holiday, the price of live pigs in 65438+ 10 still has a certain correction.
Third, the state regulates irrational price increases.
In the past September, the national temporary storage of meat reached 200,000 tons, which was also the highest in a single month. The market regulation has gradually increased, which has played a certain role in restraining the increase in pig prices driven by pork.
The increase in the price of live pigs has led to the increase in secondary fattening in the market, which has played a certain role in alleviating the subsequent shortage of live pigs.
For the follow-up market, the state will continue to increase regulation and control, which will play a certain role in restraining the rise of pig prices.
After the National Day holiday, the price of pigs at 5438+00 in June was good, and farmers still need to be cautious about the subsequent market. But overall, the price of pigs will not change in the fourth quarter, and it will reach a new high from June 1 1 to February 12.