Main recommendations
In August, RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan, and broad money increased by 8.2%.
Ant Financial set up a small program business unit, investing 654.38 billion +0 billion to upgrade service scenarios.
Market review
Market comment: The market reached a new high, and many popular white horse stocks plummeted in the early stage.
Macro perspective: CPI rose by 2.3% in August.
Pork: In August and September, there were many African swine fever epidemics in China.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 267.90, up 0.45%; Copper 48300, up1.56%; Rebar 404 1, down 0.49%; Rubber 12225, up by 0.53%; The PVC index was 6745, down by 0.37%; Zheng Chun 3266, down 0.85%; Shanghai Aluminum 14575, down 0.17%; Shanghai Nickel 103530, up by 2.28%; Iron ore was 496.0, up1.43%; Coke was 2237.5, down 0.91%; Coking coal 1277.0, up1.07%; Crude oil was 533.8, up 0.55%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5864, down 0.71%; Corn 1904, down 0.78%; Palm oil 4886, down 0.41%; Cotton 16600, up 0.15%; Zhengmai 2584, down 0.19%; Sugar 4962, up1.10%; Apple 1 1898, up 0.58%;
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 1627, up 0.19%; USD/RMB 6.8327, down 0.60%; USD/HKD7.8481,down 0.0 1%.
New stock tips
Dinggu Jichuang, purchase code 300749, purchase price 12.22 yuan.
Main recommendations
In June and August, RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan, and broad money increased by 8.2%.
At the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 178.87 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively. The balance of narrow money (M 1) was 53.83 trillion yuan, up by 3.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower by 1.2 and1. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 6.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The net cash investment in the month was 24.5 billion yuan.
At the end of August, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 137.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 65,438+0,365,438+0.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+03.2%, and the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month and the same period of last year. RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan in the month, an increase of183.4 billion yuan year-on-year. By sector, household loans increased by 7 billion yuan/kloc-0.20 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 259.8 billion yuan, and medium-and long-term loans increased by 44 billion yuan/kloc-0.50 billion yuan; Loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations increased by 665.438+027 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 654.38+0748 billion yuan, medium-and long-term loans increased by 342.5 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 409.9 billion yuan. Loans from non-banking financial institutions decreased by 43.9 billion yuan. The balance of foreign currency loans at the end of the month was US$ 836 billion, up 0.4% year-on-year. Foreign currency loans decreased by $6.2 billion in the month.
From the end of August, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits was 180.47 trillion yuan, up 8% year-on-year. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of the month was 175.24 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively. RMB deposits increased by 1.09 trillion yuan in the month, a year-on-year decrease of 272.9 billion yuan. Among them, household deposits increased by 346.3 billion yuan, non-financial enterprises increased by 665.438+0.39 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 85 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions decreased by 2.21.1billion yuan. The balance of foreign currency deposits at the end of the month was US$ 766.5 billion, down 2.7% year-on-year. Foreign currency deposits decreased by more than $265,438 billion in the month.
Comments: Judging from the data released by the central bank this time, although the loan balance increased in August, it was still lower than expected. On the one hand, it may be related to banks' weak willingness to provide credit for risk control, and on the other hand, it may be related to the decline in deposit growth, thus restricting the scale of new credit. This news has a negative impact on the market and may suppress the market trend in the short term.
(Investment Consultant Jin Cai Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S02606 1 1090020)
2. Ant Financial set up a small program business unit, investing 654.38 billion +0 billion to upgrade service scenarios.
According to Sina Technology, Ant Financial announced today that it has formally established a small program business unit, and opened the portal of the payment success page to fully connect with Ali Ecology. In addition, the business division will invest 654.38 billion yuan in innovation funds in the next three years to help developers and businesses upgrade their service scenarios. The official team of Alipay also revealed that in the next six months, Alipay applets will be gradually opened to individual developers.
Comments: As Ali begins to set foot in the field of small programs, companies that mainly develop and serve small programs will get good development opportunities, and their share prices are expected to get performance opportunities in the short term.
(Investment Consultant Jin Cai Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S02606 1 1090020)
Market review
1, market comments: The market has reached a new level, and many popular white horse stocks have plummeted.
On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2656. 1 1, down 0.33%, with a turnover of 93.5 billion, the lowest since July 2065438. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 811.16, down 0.70%, with a turnover of124.3 billion. Growth enterprise market closed at 1385.80 points, down 0.67%, with a turnover of 4 1 1 billion. Although the intraday brokerage, military and media sectors rose collectively, the three major stock indexes rebounded and turned red one after another, but they suffered from weakness. Before midday, they rose again and turned green, and the market continued its weak pattern. In terms of sector index, aviation, diversified finance, paper making, media and entertainment were among the top gainers, while white horse stocks and technology stocks collectively fell, while white horse stocks such as Dahua, Hikvision and Hengrui Pharma plummeted.
Recently, institutions such as blue-chip white horse and cyclical stocks in the holding group have experienced obvious market speculation, and high-level powerful stocks have made up for the decline. In the short term, this trend is expected to continue. At present, there is no obvious bad news in the market, but the market confidence is insufficient. At the same time, the volume and energy are also greatly reduced. Today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange hit a new low. At present, although the recent rebound of heavyweights is one of the signals that the market has bottomed out, the market sentiment is weak and the market is likely to fall below the bottom of the 2638-point stock market crash. If the market shows a downward trend again, it may be the real bottom of market sentiment. Short-term market shrinkage negative line, it is not recommended to rush to the bottom, select stocks to wait and see.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)
2. Macro perspective: CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in August.
Recently, the Bureau of Statistics announced that CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in August, with an expected 2.2% and a previous value of 2. 1%. In August, PPI rose by 4. 1% year-on-year, with an expected 4.0% and a previous value of 4.6%.
Investment Comments: CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in August, rising for two consecutive months, mainly due to the sharp increase in food prices year-on-year. The changeable weather in August affected the supply and transportation of vegetables, and the price of vegetables increased by 4.3% year on year. At the same time, swine fever broke out in various places in August, the supply side was tight, and the price of pigs also rose sharply. It is expected that inflationary pressure will further increase in the fourth quarter, but it is generally controllable. With the weakening of policy margins such as environmental protection and limited production, the prices of raw materials and industrial products may fall back, and the downward trend of PPI may continue.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)
3. Pork: In August and September, there were many African swine fever epidemics in China.
In August, five consecutive African swine fever outbreaks occurred in China, which were in Shenyang, Liaoning, Zhengzhou, Henan, Lianyungang, Jiangsu, Yueqing, Zhejiang, Wenzhou and Wuhu, Anhui. On August 30th, the State Council issued a document: Strictly control pig transportation and kitchen waste. Just in September, the sixth African swine fever epidemic occurred again in Xuancheng, Anhui Province. African swine fever occurred continuously in many places far apart, and pork prices showed obvious regional differentiation.
Investment Comments: After May 2065438+2006, the price of pigs entered a downward cycle, and it was not until April this year that the price of pork showed signs of stopping falling. African swine fever will gradually spread recently. With the increase of epidemic density, farmers' psychology will be constantly impacted. The pig industry is expected to usher in a large-scale de-capacity, and the cycle of pig price increase is expected to come ahead of schedule. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the development of the epidemic and pay attention to pork price-related enterprises on dips.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)
Statement: Company announcements, stock information, investment suggestions, research reports, strategy reports and other information provided by the Company are for reference only and do not constitute a bid or inquiry for securities trading. Investors should check them before using them at their own risk. The above information provided by our company strives to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the data, and does not guarantee that the latest changes have been made. Please refer to the information published by listed companies. Investors should make their own investment decisions, and the company will not bear legal responsibility for property losses caused by investors relying on the above information for investment decisions. Without our consent, no organization or individual may reprint, publish, abridge or modify the above information provided by our company in any form.
In August, social financing increased by 2.43 trillion yuan and RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan. How to interpret it?
First of all, we need to understand the meaning of social financing increment: social financing scale stock (referred to as social financing increment) refers to the balance of funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system in a certain period (at the end of the month, at the end of the season or at the end of the year). In August, social financing increased by 2.43 trillion yuan, which was actually 55765438+ billion yuan less than the same period of last year, largely due to the decrease in local government bond financing. Combined with the accumulated social financing scale from June 5438 to August 2022, it was 24.10.7 trillion yuan, 2.3 1 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year, which meant that the financing environment was relatively improved.
According to statistics, RMB loans in the real economy increased by 1.33 trillion yuan in August, accounting for 54.7% of the total increase, which played a great role in the recovery of the real economy. However, at present, repeated domestic epidemics will also increase the pressure on lenders.
However, at the end of August 2022, China's social financing stock was about 337.2 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Structurally, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy at the end of August accounted for 6 1.3% of the social financing stock in the same period. This figure is 6.6 points higher than 54.7%, which can indirectly reflect that the economic growth rate of China in August was not very good, which was lower than the historical average.
Secondly, at present, enterprises prefer medium-and long-term loans, with medium-and long-term loans increasing by 755.3 billion yuan and short-term loans decreasing by1210 million yuan to reduce short-term risks, which shows that most enterprises are cautious about short-term development and still optimistic about medium-and long-term development. Then, based on the medium and long-term information, enterprises must pay more attention to all aspects of their own production in order to adjust and better spend the current opportunities, so there will be cost reduction and personnel control.
On the other hand, RMB loans increased by 654.38+0.28 billion yuan. Residents' deposits increased by 828.6 billion yuan, and loans increased by 458 billion yuan, with deposits nearly twice as much as loans. Advance consumption is basically restrained, which may have a greater impact on houses, cars and other commodities, because people put more money in the bank, indicating that they will try their best to avoid large-scale consumption and reduce expenses in the short term. Therefore, the future impact on the real estate industry is still relatively unfavorable. Therefore, the number of people considering buying a house will drop sharply step by step, which is a normal economic phenomenon.
Central Bank: In August, RMB loans in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 38 1 100 million yuan. What other noteworthy information is there?
Central Bank: In August, RMB loans in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 38 1 100 million yuan. What other noteworthy information is there? First, it increased by 38.5 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that business activities in the Yangtze River Delta region are becoming more and more frequent. Secondly, loans in the housing sector accounted for a large part, but decreased year-on-year. Moreover, enterprises and institutions increased loans by 40.4 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the infrastructure at the social level is constantly improving. In addition, foreign currency loans in the Yangtze River Delta region decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating that foreign-funded enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region are shifting their development focus to improving corporate profitability. We need to elaborate and analyze the central bank from the following four aspects: RMB loans in the Yangtze River Delta region increased by 386,543.8 billion yuan in August. What information is worth paying attention to?
First, it increased by 38.5 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that business activities in the Yangtze River Delta region are becoming more and more frequent.
First of all, the year-on-year increase of 38.5 billion yuan shows that the commercial and trade activities in the Yangtze River Delta region are becoming more and more frequent. For the Yangtze River Delta region, the more developed commercial trade is, the more it can contribute its own strength and value to the economic growth of China.
Second, loans from the housing sector accounted for the bulk, but decreased year-on-year.
Secondly, the housing sector loans accounted for a large proportion but decreased year-on-year. As far as the housing sector is concerned, they account for a correspondingly large share, but their demand for refinancing is decreasing due to overcapacity.
Third, the loans of enterprises and institutions increased by 40.4 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the infrastructure at the social level is constantly improving.
In addition, the loans of enterprises and institutions increased by 40.4 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the infrastructure at the social level is constantly improving, which is very beneficial to the people.
Fourth, foreign currency loans in the Yangtze River Delta region decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating that foreign-funded enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region are transferring key areas for development to enhance their profitability.
In addition, foreign currency loans in the Yangtze River Delta region decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, which indicates that foreign-funded enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region are shifting their development focus to improving their profitability, which can better meet the long-term development effect.
Precautions for foreign enterprises:
Investment in the Yangtze River Delta should be strengthened.
About the financial data released by the central bank
Central Bank: At the end of August, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 25.6 1 trillion yuan, up 65.438+07.02% year-on-year, with an increase of 65.438+0.95 percentage points and 0.39 percentage points higher than the end of last month.
Central Bank: At the end of August, the balance of local and foreign currency loans of financial institutions was 27. 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.96%.
Central Bank: In August this year, RMB loans of financial institutions increased by 302.9 billion yuan, an increase of1160 billion yuan year-on-year.
Central Bank: At the end of August 2007, the currency in circulation (M0) was 2.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.04%.
Central Bank: At the end of August 2007, the balance of narrow money supply (M 1) was 14. 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.77%.
Central Bank: At the end of August 2007, the balance of broad money supply (M2) was 38.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.09%.
Central Bank: In August this year, household loans increased by128.3 billion yuan, an increase of 73.9 billion yuan compared with the comparable caliber, of which short-term loans increased by 28 billion yuan; Medium and long-term loans increased by 654.38+0003 billion yuan.
Central Bank: From June 5438 to August this year, the accumulated net cash input was 75 billion yuan, 59.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
In August, RMB loans in China increased by 1.25 trillion yuan. What signal does this release?
In August, RMB loans in China increased by 1.25 trillion, which indicates that there are more currencies circulating in the China market, which may lead to overheating of the economy.
What does the new loan mean?
Question 1: What does the new loan in the enterprise credit report mean? New loans are statistical data used to reflect the increase of RMB loans issued by financial institutions to domestic enterprises and residents, which are regularly announced to the public by the People's Bank of China.
The calculation method of new loans is: new loans = loan balance at the end of the current period-loan balance at the end of the previous period. For example, by the end of August 2009, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 38,5241.1.90 billion yuan, while by the end of July 2009, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 381.1.0.
Question 2: What do you mean by increasing new loans? Increase = new loans (i.e. ending loan balance-opening loan balance)/opening loan balance.
Question 3: What is the new loan? What do you mean? Is it a new loan? New loans are statistical data used to reflect the increase of RMB loans issued by financial institutions to domestic enterprises and residents, which are regularly announced to the public by the People's Bank of China.
Question 4: What does the new credit line mean? Banks sign agreements with enterprises to give enterprises the maximum loan limit within a certain period (usually one year). After the enterprise determines the loan, both parties can withdraw money directly without signing a loan contract. Under normal circumstances, enterprises need to pay the capital occupation fee to realize loans. Not a contractual commitment. Example: Your credit line is 3000, so your maximum loan line is 3000!
Question 5: What do you mean if there is a new loan? I don't quite understand what you mean. My understanding refers to the revolving loan of customers, that is, revolving credit. For example, an enterprise's credit line in the bank is 300,000 yuan, and it can borrow money by paying 30% of the deposit, so the enterprise can borrow 6,543,800 yuan by paying 300,000 yuan of the deposit. Then use this 1 10,000 to pay a deposit, accounting for 30% of the next loan, and you can borrow 3. ...
Question 6: Does the new loan represent the newly issued RMB? Can't draw an equal sign. Loans are decided by the central bank at the loan-to-deposit ratio, and the newly issued RMB is related to inflation.
Question 7: What are new RMB loans? In May, China added RMB loans of 55 16 billion yuan, and Xinhuanet Beijing June/KLOC-0.3 (Reporter Wang, Wang Yu). According to the data released by the People's Bank of China on June 13, Dingguo increased RMB loans by 55 16 billion yuan in May.
Question 8: Structural characteristics of new loans: New loans refer to existing loans. The main characteristics of its performance are that there are many traditional industries and few emerging industries; General loans account for a large proportion, while innovative loans account for a small proportion; There are many customers with low credit rating and few customers with high credit rating; In fact, it is used to lay the foundation, and it is used to turn around the flow. The structure of new loans mainly has the following characteristics: 1, with many traditional industries and few emerging industries. A considerable number of loans are deposited in traditional industries, sunset industries and long-term product enterprises with serious market demand, and there are few high-tech industries, basic industries and monopoly industries. By the end of 20001,loans from supply and marketing cooperatives, loans from township enterprises, real estate loans and trade loans totaled 4.52 billion yuan, accounting for 29.22% of the conventional loans. 2. General loans account for a large proportion, while innovative loans account for a small proportion. At the end of 20001,the balance of low-risk loans such as discount, small pledge, personal housing and consumer loans was 632 million yuan, accounting for 3.84% of conventional loans. 3. There are more customers with low credit rating and fewer customers with high credit rating. By the end of 20001,the number of AAA customers 169, accounting for 4.48%, and the loan balance was 7.6 billion yuan, accounting for 52.72%; There are 53,523 AA customers, accounting for 3.60%, and the loan balance is 535 million yuan, accounting for 3.71%; There were 3,468 customers with Grade A or below, accounting for 9 1.92%, and the loan balance was 6.28 billion yuan, accounting for 43.57%. 4. In fact, it is used to lay the foundation, and it is less used for turnover. A large number of working capital loans have become the basic funds of enterprises, and some working capital loans have been extended for eight years and borrowed many times.
Question 9: What does the new credit amount mean to the bank's efforts to support the local economy? Because in statistics, the accumulated amount of "accumulated amount" often includes loans recovered and re-issued, and the new amount can better reflect the bank's contribution to the local economy in that year.
Question 10: What is the new loan? What do you mean? Is it a new loan? New loans are statistical data used to reflect the increase of RMB loans issued by financial institutions to domestic enterprises and residents, which are regularly announced to the public by the People's Bank of China.