Here, we collect relevant information and sort it out in order to bring the most objective evaluation to the market end consumers.
First, let's look at the current wheat price.
Judging from the market trend, domestic new wheat will be listed on a large scale in 1 month. Therefore, the price of wheat has declined after the surge in recent days, and the mainstream purchase price of flour enterprises in major producing areas is concentrated between 1.6- 1.66 yuan/kg, which is still at a historical high level.
Secondly, let's take a look at the growth of winter wheat that will be listed soon.
According to the news released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the current growth of winter wheat has not reached the level of last year and the same period of the previous year, mainly because of the large-scale late sowing caused by heavy rain in the core wheat producing areas in northern China last year.
Judging from the latest meteorological conditions, Henan, as one of the main wheat producing areas in China, is expected to see a wave of heavy precipitation in some areas from south to north in the past two days. At present, the local meteorological department has been in an emergency response state.
Next, we will focus on briefly describing the overall situation of China's grain market.
In terms of output, China's total grain output has been maintained at a scale of more than 600 million tons, which is nearly 60% higher than that at the beginning of this century. The main increase is the output of wheat, corn and rice.
Among them, the output of corn is the highest, about 250 million tons per year, accounting for nearly 40% of the total grain output, followed by rice and wheat. Relatively speaking, under the background that the output of the three major grains remains high, the cultivation of other miscellaneous grains such as sorghum and barley in China has not increased so much, and some varieties have even shown a downward trend.
In other words, our grain cultivation is mainly based on three major grains, which is also an overview of China's agricultural problems in the daily work of grain and oil: diversity is suppressed.
Of course, there are historical and practical reasons why we choose the three major grain varieties as the core grain crops.
Among them, wheat and corn are the traditional staple food varieties in China, which are in line with the consumption habits of most Chinese people, while corn has the highest yield among the three major cereals. It is a good life-saving grain in the period of lack of food and a very good feed grain in the period of sufficient supply. Especially in modern industry, deep processing of corn has penetrated into all walks of life and become an important industrial and energy raw material.
Therefore, although China is the largest grain importer in the world at present, the annual grain import volume reaches more than 1 100 million tons, but more than 70% of them are feed grain, and although wheat and rice have a certain amount of imports every year, they are only a supplement to the domestic supply structure.
According to our preliminary statistics, if we don't import grain now, it may have an impact on industry and aquaculture, so that people's consumption of meat, eggs and milk can't be effectively met, but the supply of wheat and rice can be completely self-sufficient, especially rice, and there will be a lot of surplus every year.
Therefore, the problem of food supply mentioned in our consistent broadcast, exactly speaking, involves the supply and consumption of meat, eggs and milk, and has nothing to do with basic food and clothing.
Next, let's briefly talk about the sustainability of food supply in China.
Generally speaking, whether we are working or studying, the most fundamental purpose is not to eat enough, but to eat well.
In recent years, although China's grain supply is sufficient and there has never been a big problem of supply shortage, on the other hand, we are also facing a situation of insufficient stamina, that is, the sustainability of grain production is at risk.
The core problem is that under the current production mode, the space for China's grain yield to continue to increase is getting smaller and smaller.
Before the 1990s, the yield of wheat in Huanghuai area was mostly maintained at 600-800 kg. Since then, with the extensive use of breeding, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, the yield of wheat in this area has been above 1000 kg for many years, and it is facing a new bottleneck of increasing production.
Some people may say, didn't you say that our food is self-sufficient before? Why should we increase grain production? In fact, this is what we said earlier, "Whether we are working or studying, the most fundamental purpose is not to eat enough, but to eat well." Only with more food can we develop the demand for high-quality food beyond food and clothing.
Moreover, increasing the yield per unit area is not just as simple as increasing the total grain output.
According to objective data, China has the largest population in the world, but the cultivated land area accounts for only 7% of the world. This objective fact is unavoidable.
In recent years, under the background of increasing grain yield by traditional mode, the ecological environment of cultivated land in China is facing a great test. On the one hand, water resources are tight, on the other hand, some cultivated land has exceeded the standard of heavy metals, which affects the quality of grain.
Therefore, in recent years, the country has been hoping to carry out ecological restoration of cultivated land resources, including returning farmland to forests and fallow rotation in some areas.
However, as everyone has seen this year, our food supply problem still faces various uncertain risks.
In the previous content reports, we did see that many farmers' friends didn't understand imported grain. In fact, from another angle, we will be more aware of the regulatory intentions of relevant parties:
Under the economic development, our total grain demand will maintain an upward trend. If we do not import and promote domestic production by raising grain prices, then the most serious consequence will be the complete collapse of cultivated land ecology.
Therefore, from this perspective, although foreign media have been accusing China of hoarding grain and importing a large amount of grain, and using some remarks to destroy our grain import environment, from the perspective of the sustainable development of our agriculture, how to better maintain a relaxed international trade environment and purchase the grain we need from the international market in a balanced and stable way is also the top priority to maintain the sustainable development of China's grain.
Of course, as China bowls of China grain, in this process, it is more important to ensure the absolute self-sufficiency of the core staple grain, coordinate the impact of imported grain on domestic grain, and stabilize the grain production rights and interests of domestic farmers.