Before studying and analyzing a variety, we need to understand the analysis framework of the variety, so as to clarify which factors need to be analyzed emphatically. Regarding the research on sugar, we start from the following aspects:
I. General situation of sugar industry
The ancient people's pursuit of sweetness was exclusive to the upper class. At the earliest time, there was no such thing as "sugar making". Humans can only collect natural sweeteners, such as honey. China began to make sugar from sugarcane more than 2,000 years ago, while sugar beet was only used in recent decades.
From a global perspective, the sugar yield of sugarcane is much higher than that of sugar beet. The ratio is close to 8: 2. Although the raw materials are different, there is no difference in quality between cane sugar and beet sugar, and national standards are also applicable to them.
In 20/2 1 year, the global sugar output was 65.438+0.8 billion tons (raw sugar value), of which sugarcane sugar output was 65.438+0.43 billion tons (raw sugar value) and beet sugar output was 37 million tons (raw sugar value). Sugarcane sugar production accounts for about 79%, and beet sugar accounts for about 2 1%. In the past 10 years, the share of sugarcane sugar and beet sugar did not change much, the proportion of sugarcane sugar fluctuated between 76%-8 1%, and beet sugar fluctuated between 19%-24%.
Sugar production is scattered all over the world, and there is no obvious regional concentration. Judging from the yield of 20/2 1 cropping season, the top sugar-producing regions in the world are Brazil, India, the European Union, China, the United States, Thailand, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and Australia. The output of the top ten regions accounts for about 75%-80% of the global sugar output, of which Brazil and India both account for about 16%- 19%, the European Union accounts for about 10%, and Thailand accounts for about 7%-8%. Although the production pattern is scattered all over the world, the main producing countries (regions) are relatively concentrated. Moreover, due to the great difference in squeezing time among major producing countries, there is no obvious seasonal law in global sugar production.
In 20/2 1 year, the global sugar consumption was 654.38+72 million tons (raw sugar value), with a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Looking back at history, the overall consumption shows an increasing trend.
By region and country, the top ten consuming countries and regions are: India, EU, China, Brazil, USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, Mexico and Egypt, accounting for about 60% of the total. In the absence of other factors, the consumption does not change much, and generally increases slowly with the growth rate of 1%-2%, which has little effect on the trend of raw sugar.
Judging from the global sugar trade flow, the sugar trade volume accounts for about 30% of the total output. The top three countries in terms of imports are Indonesia, China and the United States, and the top three countries in terms of exports are Brazil, Thailand and India.
Second, the characteristics of sugar price trend
As a strong cyclical futures product, sugar is known as "three bears in three years and one cycle in six years", in which the yield plays a vital role in the cyclical law. Because of the perennial nature of sugarcane, sugarcane seeds can grow for three years at a time. Sugarcane itself has low requirements for planting conditions and is easy to survive. Generally speaking, the investment in the first year is large, and the investment in the next two years is reduced. Therefore, even if the sugar price drops sharply in the short term, sugarcane farmers are less likely to cut sugarcane and plant other crops. Therefore, for sugarcane, once sugarcane farmers reduce or increase sugarcane planting area, it will have a great impact on the yield in the next three years, usually showing the regularity of increasing production for three years and decreasing production for three years. As an agricultural product, sugar, like most agricultural products, has the characteristics of relatively stable demand and great changes in supply year by year, which determines that the factors affecting sugar prices are mainly concentrated in supply-side factors such as planting area, weather and national policies, and are less related to demand-side factors such as economic prosperity. "Output decrease-price increase-planting area increase-price decrease-output decrease", and the operation of white sugar market strictly follows the "cobweb model". The increase of planting area leads to the increase of output, which will depress the price of sugar, thus reducing the enthusiasm of farmers and eventually reducing the planting area. With the change of output, the price of sugar is also a three-year cycle, with bulls and bears alternating.
From the above picture, we can clearly see the cyclical characteristics of white sugar "three cows and three bears", and the positive correlation between domestic white sugar and Meiyuan sugar price trend is also very obvious. However, with the increasing proportion of domestic sugar imports, the price cycle of sugar has become smoother in recent years.
Third, the international sugar price research framework
The concentration of sugar exporting countries in the world is very high, with Brazil, Thailand and India accounting for about 70% of the total. So from the supply side, we focus on the output, inventory and related export policies of these three countries.
Among them, Brazil's sugar production needs to be focused on. In the field of agriculture, Brazil has a unique advantage and is the largest sugarcane grower in the world. The annual output of sugarcane is relatively stable, around 630 million tons, mainly concentrated in the south-central region of Brazil. In recent years, the annual output of raw sugar in Brazil is 30-40 million tons. Brazil's sugar production is very elastic, and the fluctuation range can reach as much as 6.5438+million tons (in contrast, China's total sugar output is about 6.5438+million tons a year).
This is because sugarcane can be used not only to squeeze sugar, but also to produce ethanol containing water. If more ethanol is produced, the yield of sugar will decrease.
In 1970s, when the second world oil crisis began, the Brazilian government vigorously developed bioethanol and hybrid fuel vehicles (FFV). Nowadays, in Brazil, hybrid vehicles account for more than 80%, and most vehicles can switch between fossil fuels and biofuels flexibly, among which the representative is the mutual substitution of hydrous ethanol and gasoline. According to the economic price comparison between gasoline and ethanol, consumers can add C-type gasoline or hydrous ethanol as fuel in any proportion in hybrid vehicles.
In this way, there is a substitution relationship between ethanol and crude oil, and the price of crude oil is an exogenous variable, which affects the price of ethanol and then the output and price of white sugar.
According to the latest data given by UNICA on February 1 day of this year, although the international crude oil price dropped sharply this year compared with last year, the sugar production ratio of sugarcane in Brazil is still only about 45%, while the alcohol production ratio is still as high as about 55%, which shows how flexible Brazil is in sugar production!
India's annual output of white sugar also exceeds 30 million tons, making it the second largest sugar producer in the world, but its own consumption is also very large, and the white sugar that can be exported every year is usually less than 6.5438+million tons. Therefore, when supplying sugar to India, we should pay special attention to its export policy.
Thailand's annual sugar output is not high, about 6.5438+million tons, but most of it is used for export, making it the second largest sugar exporter in the world.
Another thing to pay attention to is the sugar squeezing time in major producing countries. For example, February and March this year is the peak of the harvest season in India, and at this stage, the harvest season in Brazil has ended and Thailand is in the early stage of the harvest season, which has led to India's dominant pricing of international sugar in recent days. Up to now, India's 22/23 crop season output is pending, and India's biweekly output has increased year-on-year. The market has doubts about the fact that India has cut production, but government officials still insist that the second batch of export quotas may be cancelled due to the expected reduction in production. This has led to the recent fluctuations in the price of Meiyuan sugar.
Based on the above analysis, the international sugar price analysis framework can be roughly arranged as follows:
Fourth, the research framework of domestic white sugar
China is an important producer and consumer of sugar, and sugar planting plays an important role in China's agricultural economy. In 20/2 1 year, China was the fourth largest sugar producer, the third largest sugar consumer and the second largest sugar importer in the world.
In terms of production, the main sugarcane producing areas in China have rugged terrain, relatively poor natural production conditions and relatively high costs. Taking Guangxi as an example, the production cost of sugarcane in China is 360-400 yuan/ton, compared with Brazil (134- 158 yuan/ton), India (140- 168 yuan/ton) and Thailand (200-230 yuan/ton). However, sugar, as an important strategic material, belongs to agricultural products subject to strict trade protection. Since China joined the WTO, China has implemented the sugar import quota tariff system, and its evolution process is as follows:
In recent years, the domestic sugar supply and demand pattern is relatively stable, with an annual output of about100000 tons and a demand of about150000 tons. This gap is supplemented by imports and stocks carried over from the previous period. Real-time import quota policy, import tariff within quota 15%, import tariff within quota19.45 million tons, and import tariff outside quota 50%.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) abstract
1, the trend of sugar price has obvious periodicity, the cycle is 5-6 years, which is related to sugarcane planting all the year round and has leveled off periodically in recent years; There is an obvious positive correlation between the trend of sugar in the inner and outer plates.
2. The top three countries in the international sugar market are Brazil, India and Thailand. Brazil's sugar production and India's export fluctuate greatly, which are the leading factors affecting the international sugar price trend;
3. The global demand for sugar is stable, and the annual demand fluctuation is kept within 5%, which leads to the fluctuation of sugar mainly in the supply side and is restricted by the planting cycle.
4. The supply and demand pattern of white sugar in China is relatively stable, with an annual output of about100000 tons and a demand of about150000 tons. This gap is supplemented by imports and stocks carried over from the previous period. Real-time import quota policy, import tariff within quota 15%, import tariff within quota19.45 million tons, and import tariff outside quota 50%. In the case of little change in domestic output, the influence of import fluctuation on Zheng sugar is increasing, so higher weight should be allocated in the research. Correspondingly, the large period and seasonality of the inner disk will also be weakened to some extent. Specifically, the research should pay more attention to major producing countries such as Brazil, Thailand and India. For example, from April to 65438+February, we should pay more attention to Brazil's crushing and export situation; 11-April should pay attention to the crushing and export situation of India and Thailand in the northern hemisphere, which may have a greater impact on the market than the production and sales of the internal market itself and the seasonal situation.