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Large pig farmers predict that pork will probably fall to 5 yuan in two years. Netizen: Five reasons are difficult for fall in price.
Pork plays an indispensable role in the daily life of ordinary people, and it also occupies an important position in our traditional Chinese cuisine. According to the data of USDA, in 20 18, the global pork consumption was about112.58 million tons, of which the consumption of China people reached 56120,000 tons, accounting for nearly half of the global pork consumption. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that China is a veritable pork consumption country.

So that there is a paragraph like this: the landlord has raised the rent for the tenant, and the tenant is not convinced, and the house price has not risen. How can you give me a rent increase? The landlord replied, because I like pork.

Everyone must know the increase of pork. As of August 28th, the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities was 53.5 yuan per kilogram, up nearly 50% year-on-year. For the Han people who like to eat pork, the rising price of pork makes many people feel terrible. Pork is related to three meals a day, so many people hope that the price of pork will drop a little one day.

Tao Yishan, chairman of Tang Renshen, a big pig producer, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly that he is more pessimistic about the price of pigs, and it is possible that the price of meat will drop to four or five yuan by 2022, because the major pig-raising enterprises in China are expanding the scale of pigs, and the scale of pigs under construction or to be built will reach 2 1 100 million, but the scale of pork consumption in China is only 650 million. Overcapacity will cause prices to fall.

Supply and demand determine prices. There seems to be some truth in the statement of pig-raising bosses.

Don't say five yuan a catty, if people can really eat 10 yuan a catty of pork, this expert is really the gospel of the people! However, more people have different opinions.

Some netizens think that he must think about his interests. What he means by this sentence is that everyone should stop raising pigs and don't compete with big pig farmers for business. As long as pigs are in the hands of big farms, pork is hard to fall in price. Pork prices are hard to fall, and there are these five reasons.

First, under the requirements of environmental protection, the pig farm was shut down.

Pingjiang Wan Pig Farm, once a national standardized pig breeding base, witnessed the difficulty of domestic pig breeding, but it was shut down in 20 18. This pig farm, which covers an area of 7 1 mu and has an annual output of 43,000 pigs, was ordered to close down and give way to the ecological construction in the county because of its deep damage to the ecological environment.

Second, pig breeds are "stuck in the neck" by the United States.

On September 2nd, Liu Yonghao, chairman of New Hope Group, said that many original breeding pigs are imported now, and this pattern needs to be changed urgently. There is a proper term in the pig industry called feed-to-meat ratio. How much feed does a pig need to eat when it grows one kilogram of meat? At present, the feed-to-meat ratio of foreign pigs in the domestic mainstream market is about 2-3:1,while the feed-to-meat ratio of domestic pork is as high as 6: 1. Foreign pigs consume less feed and have a short feeding time. If you are a farmer, what would you choose?

Third, the impact of African swine fever.

What big farmers fear most is the plague. On August 3, 20 18, the first African swine fever epidemic occurred in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, completely announcing the opening of a new pig cycle. African swine fever exploded like an atomic bomb in Liaoning Province around Jilin Province.

As of July, 20 19, there was an African swine fever epidemic 143 in China, killing more than 60,000 pigs1/kloc-0. Faced with this situation, the three eastern provinces closed down the whole territory of pigs. Only one year later, the price of pork and the profit of raising pigs in Qi Fei, the plate of live pigs, made the stock prices of some big aquaculture companies soar.

Nature makes people, just like that sentence:

"Today is cruel, tomorrow is even more cruel, and the day after tomorrow will be beautiful, but most people will die tomorrow night."

Fourth, the breeding cost is not low.

I asked several old farmers around me, why not raise pigs to make money now that pork prices are so good? The answer is that the investment is too large, one or two thousand pigs, corn feed is so expensive that pigs can't afford it, and there is still a gap between the price of pigs collected and the price of pork in the vegetable market, while the prices of corn and soybean meal needed for pig feed have been firm. Take corn as an example, the price of corn has risen from last year's ton 1850 yuan to 2050 yuan. In terms of feed cost, our feed price is also higher than that of the United States.

In China, more than 60% of the converted protein in feed protein is provided by soybean meal, and more than 95% of soybean meal production is obtained by squeezing imported soybeans. At present, the feed price is still bullish.

Fifth, large-scale farming.

The requirements of environmental protection have caused many rural free-range farmers to withdraw from pig breeding, and the popularity of large-scale farming has also caused a large number of retail investors to withdraw, which has not changed the high proportion of retail farming in China and the shortage of pork supply.

In addition to these five reasons, the rise in pork prices has something to do with the special market in 2020. In September, major schools started school in an all-round way, canteens needed a lot of pork, government agencies and institutions also officially went to work, restaurants and restaurants also resumed work normally, requiring a lot of pork supply, and the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, Spring Festival and other holidays are coming. The shortage of pork may not change in the short term.

However, there are also some good news that makes us feel a little gratified. Because a large number of pork from modern farms are supplied to the market, coupled with the rich profits of raising pigs, some farmers have also been attracted to the market. On September 2nd, the reserve frozen pork was put into auction, with a bid transaction of 20,000 tons. This is the 30th batch of reserve frozen pork put in this year, and the cumulative amount will reach 540,000 tons.

Ali, Netease, JD.COM, Evergrande, Country Garden and Vanke have also started to engage in pig raising business, empowering the pig raising industry with science and technology, and Mu Yuan, a large domestic pig producer, is also increasing the research and development of varieties.

We have reason to expect that everything is moving in a better direction.