The supply of new corn continued to increase, and the supply pressure slowly increased.
From the supply point of view, as of the middle of 10, the new season corn in North China and Northeast China began to increase production continuously, and the new season corn in parts of Heilongjiang and Liaoning in Northeast China was listed one after another, and the new season corn in Jilin entered the harvest period. However, on the whole, the market is still dominated by digesting old grain. At present, the enthusiasm of traders for shipment is acceptable. With the listing of new season corn, the market supply pressure has begun to increase.
The corn market in North China fluctuated and adjusted, and local grass-roots farmers were busy overlapping some plots to reduce production. Farmers are reluctant to sell, vendors buy ordinary dry food, and some areas mainly buy wet food. Because of the high moisture content of wet grain, the intention of deep processing is not high, all of them are collected as they are used, and the purchase price is adjusted according to the arrival situation, but the price is mainly reduced; Feed enterprises keep a close eye on the listing of new corn in Northeast China and are cautious about the acquisition.
The market turnover in the southern region is weak, and the price center of gravity is mainly stable.
Generally speaking, due to the slow pace of corn production in the producing areas, the corn price center of gravity is stable and strong, while the downstream is generally not enthusiastic about purchasing because of the pressure from the breeding end, and most of them still mainly buy old grain, so it is difficult to improve the activity of buying and selling in the short term. By the end of June, 65438+1October, 65438+May, the national average corn price closed at 25 16 yuan/ton, up 0. 14% from last month and 6.06% from the same period last year.
The market consumption activity is not good, and it is still based on digesting old grain.
From the perspective of corn deep processing enterprises, due to the continuous rainy weather in the early stage, the moisture content of listed corn is high, and the overall willingness of enterprises to go to stock is not high. The purchase intention of raw corn is also obvious. This week, the mainstream purchase price dropped by 50~ 150 yuan/ton compared with that before the holiday. Deep processing enterprises as a whole hold a wait-and-see attitude and basically purchase on demand.
From the point of view of feed enterprises, because there is still a big price difference between substitutes and corn, the willingness of feed enterprises to use wheat and other substitutes is still strong, and because the supply of substitutes in the market is relatively sufficient at present, Zhejiang continues to limit the high price of corn, and the procurement of feed enterprises is mainly based on just need. However, there is a large demand for high-quality aged grain, which has strong resilience in the market.
Specific to the available varieties, mainly including domestic wheat, brown rice and imported corn flour, barley and other varieties. According to the investigation, corn has been completely replaced in some meat and poultry feeds at present, and the replacement ratio of corn in feed such as egg poultry, suckling pig feed and protective feed has also increased to 30%~50%. The extensive use of substitutes poses a serious threat to the demand of ordinary quality corn, but has relatively little impact on high-quality corn.
What is the market trend of corn in the future?
In the short term, because the willingness to use substitutes is still relatively strong, it will squeeze the demand for corn, which is also the main limiting factor for the price increase of corn. Judging from the supply and demand pattern, the current sales area is still loose, so the price of corn will continue to be suppressed. Before the full release of corn in the new season, the spot price of corn will continue to maintain the current weak consolidation trend, and there is still the possibility of a downward trend in the short term. After entering the end of 10, with a large number of new grains entering the market, the market activity will be significantly improved, but the driving force for corn price increase is relatively limited.
In the medium and long term, supported by the cost of planting, purchasing and disasters, after a large number of new grains are listed, the overall probability of corn prices will remain wide fluctuations, and the probability of unilateral sharp rise or fall is small.