The report also mentioned that even if the growth rate of total loans is not considered, if the growth rate of bank real estate development loans and personal mortgage loans in 20 19 is not exceeded, the total amount of development loans and mortgage loans in 20021year will only shrink by about 0.4%-0.9% compared with that in mid-2020, with limited impact.
In the interview, another brokerage analyst's judgment was consistent with Huatai Securities. According to the analyst's estimate of 36 listed banks, the total amount of real estate loans that all banks that fail to meet the standards need to be reduced is about 700 billion yuan, and according to the upper limit of the proportion, all banks that meet the standards still have a surplus line of 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan to use. According to analysts' estimation, in the overall real estate development funds, the loan amount with declining pressure accounts for less than 10%, and the impact is limited.
The financing pressure of housing enterprises mainly comes from the "three red lines" policy. Over the past six months, the impact of this policy has already appeared.
Real data 2020 annual report on housing financing shows that the total scale of domestic and foreign bond financing of housing enterprises reached a record high this year, but the growth rate decreased by 10 percentage point compared with the same period of 20 19. The monthly data in 2020 more clearly reflects the power of the "three red lines". Rumors of "three red lines" appeared in August. Every month before August, the total amount of new bonds issued has been more than the total amount of debts due in that month. After August, the total amount of new bonds issued has been less.
RealData predicts that in 20021year, the financing scale of real estate enterprises will be at a low level due to the uncertain prospect of overseas epidemic prevention and control, strong economic uncertainty and new domestic financing regulations.
202 1 The financing situation of the bond market in the first month was not as optimistic as it was judged. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, 202 1 1 is one trading day more than the same period last year, but the scale of issuing bonds by real estate enterprises is not as good as that of the same period last year. The first month of the new year is the peak of traditional bond issuance, and its data has certain significance.
It never rains but it pours. 65438+ 10 month Huaxia Happiness (600340, share it) (600340. SH) A debt crisis broke out. According to its announcement, the debt of 5.255 billion yuan is overdue and is seeking the support of the governments of Hebei Province and Langfang City. The aforementioned brokers believe that the happy credit crisis in China will hit the whole industry, especially the prospect of private enterprises issuing bonds.
Corresponding to low financing is high maturity debt. According to the calculation of RealData, in 20021year, the total debt due in the whole real estate industry will exceed the trillion mark for the first time, reaching the scale of 1.2 trillion, up 36% year-on-year. However, the bond issuance cycle of housing enterprises is mostly 3-5 years, which means that it will take 3-5 years for the amount of bonds due to slow down sharply, and housing enterprises will face heavy cash flow pressure.
The differentiation of the bond market in the first month of the new year is also worthy of attention. This month, Country Garden (2007.HK) issued two bills with a total amount of US$ 654.38+0.2 billion, of which coupon rate only accounted for 2.7% and 3.3%, and the two debts had longer maturities of 5 years and 654.38+00 years respectively. COFCO (2772.HK) has also issued two US dollar bonds, with coupon rate's debt reaching 9.5% and 7.5% respectively, both of which will expire next year.
Many interviewed housing enterprises and market analysis institutions believe that in the new year, the financing cost and difficulty of housing enterprises will be polarized according to their financial and credit status. A manager of the top 20 housing enterprises believes that the "three red lines" standard will become a general reference for lending credit after it is introduced. This is one of the reasons why even if the "three red lines" are not expanded, it will still affect the whole industry.
Domestic financing costs will also have certain structural differences due to the nature of enterprises. According to the data of real data 2020, compared with central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, the domestic average coupon rate of non-central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is nearly 1.5% higher.