1. The epidemic situation in COVID-19 was one of the most serious infectious diseases in the last century.
This epidemic is the first truly "global epidemic", in terms of transmission and response. In three months, the epidemic spread to more than 2 10 countries and regions around the world, and nearly 7 billion people were affected. The rapid spread of the epidemic is the result of the cross-border movement of people, the long incubation period of the virus and the large number of asymptomatic infected people in the era of globalization. At the same time, globalization is also the basis for countries to jointly fight the epidemic. Epidemic information is exchanged synchronously around the world, and epidemic prevention materials are transported rapidly around the world. For the first time in human history, we actively pressed the pause button of the global economy for the prevention and control of infectious diseases, which marked the epidemic with a distinct "globalization" brand.
Second, the COVID-19 epidemic is the most serious global sudden crisis since the end of the Cold War.
The impact of COVID-19 epidemic has affected human health, economic growth, social development, national security and international relations, and it is an all-round and comprehensive challenge. Generally speaking, the world after the epidemic is unlikely to be fundamental and subversive. However, the epidemic will obviously bring many major changes to the world. It not only intensifies some negative trends, but also accelerates some positive trends. Its influence cannot be generalized, it will accelerate the world change and make the international situation more complicated. Problems that existed before the epidemic, such as intensified competition among big countries, frequent global cooperation problems, and the spread of populism, will become more obvious after the epidemic.
Third, the impact of the epidemic on the world economy exceeds that of the 2008 international financial crisis.
The epidemic has sharply reversed the expectation of moderate growth of the world economy in early 2020. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow negatively by 3% in 2020.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, the employment situation in various countries has become more severe. Since mid-March, a record 26.45 million people in the United States have applied for unemployment benefits, which completely evaporated the number of new jobs since the 2008 financial crisis. The epidemic hit the global stock market and the international crude oil market. The panic of global investors triggered the turmoil in financial and capital markets.
The epidemic has caused great losses to related industries and international trade. Tourism, catering, accommodation and other service industries and many small and medium-sized enterprises have been hit hard. Global tourism lost at least $22 billion. The global shipping industry loses about $350 million a week. In 2020, the global seaborne trade volume may decrease by more than 600 million tons, the biggest decline in 35 years. The World Trade Organization predicts that the global merchandise trade volume may drop by as much as 32% in 2020.
The epidemic has had a great impact on the production and transportation of global commodities. Under the background that the global division of labor has been very detailed, it is difficult for countries to establish a more independent and complete supply chain in a short time. Establishing regional supply chain and dispersing supply chain risks may become a development direction.
The epidemic has worsened the economic environment in developing countries. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, about $90 billion of capital has been withdrawn from emerging markets, and some countries have heavier original debt burdens and even face a debt crisis. Under the influence of the epidemic, more than 90 countries requested assistance from the International Monetary Fund.
The World Food Program warned that the epidemic may also nearly double the number of people facing serious food insecurity around the world, reaching 265 million this year. If measures are not taken as soon as possible to maintain the stability of global agricultural products and food supply, the world may face a food crisis.
Fourth, the epidemic has affected the global economic development and security situation.
The epidemic situation reminds people that non-traditional security challenges such as public health safety and biological safety are important components of national security. Countries need to re-examine and attach importance to non-traditional security challenges and build a more perfect national security system.
The epidemic situation once again shows that there is security in economy and security in economy, and the relationship between them is getting closer and closer, so relevant decisions must be made in a balanced way. When dealing with similar epidemics, if we only pay attention to preserving the economy and ignore safety, we will pay a heavy life price; If we only pay attention to safety and ignore the economy, it will lead to stagnant growth and weaken the resources to protect people's well-being.
The epidemic situation once again highlights the importance of sustainable development. Living in nature, human beings should keep the balance between man and nature and pay attention to the sustainable development of economy and society, instead of just pursuing one-sided economic growth.
This epidemic will accelerate the evolution of international relations and international order.
Never in history has the response to infectious diseases been so seriously politicized. Some politicians and media in the United States and western countries tried their best to discredit China and "throw the pot" at China. At the same time, there are conflicts between the United States and Europe because of epidemic prevention measures and competition for epidemic prevention materials.
In this epidemic, especially when Italy and other severely affected countries requested assistance, the EU was unprepared for the crisis. Facing the endless global challenges, the EU inevitably needs more collective actions, and unity will be more important but more difficult.
In the comprehensive test of the epidemic, Asian countries have performed better than Europe and America so far. China, Japan and South Korea encouraged and supported each other during the epidemic, setting an example for other countries in the world to unite and cooperate to meet challenges.
6. The epidemic has put forward new requirements for the reform of the global governance system.
The international public health system has played an important role, but there are also obvious shortcomings. Due to the lack of coercion and coordination at the leadership level, WHO's professional advice cannot be promoted in some countries. WHO's total annual budget is not even comparable to that of big hospitals in the United States, which makes it vulnerable to the constraints of major donors. There is communication and coordination among big countries, but there is a lack of substantive cooperation. So far, there is no joint anti-epidemic action led by a big country and coordinated globally.
Seven. The epidemic situation has promoted the in-depth adjustment of the globalization process.
Before this epidemic, globalization had met with great resistance. The epidemic situation has fueled the trend of protectionism, prompted some countries to re-examine the industrial layout and opening-up policies, and accelerated the localization and diversification of global supply chains. Globalization in the post-epidemic era will be further adjusted. China's position as a world factory will not be replaced in the short term, but the international division of labor system and some supply chains will be shortened. Intra-regional cooperation in Asia, Europe and America may be strengthened. In the process of promoting an open economy, the government and enterprises will pay more attention to safety factors. In the long run, how to balance efficiency and security, regional and global, competition and cooperation is an important direction of globalization adjustment in the future.
The historical trend of globalization will not end because of the epidemic, but its structure and connotation may undergo new changes. A more inclusive globalization covering economic, security and social factors will have greater resilience and potential.