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In recent days, the topic of retiring power batteries has become very rampant.
First of all, in mid-June, Xu Heyi, the former chairman of BAIC Group, issued a "cry" at the 20021China Blue Book Forum, focusing people's attention on the retired power batteries of new energy vehicles.
He said, "According to the battery life of about 8 years, by about 2025, China will usher in the peak of power battery scrapping, and there will be 420,000 tons of power batteries to be recycled in 2022. However, China's power battery recycling system is still not perfect, and relevant battery recycling standards and industrial chains have not yet been fully formed, and they all need to be laid out in advance. "
For a while, it was like, "Where's the retired power battery?" And "Do waste batteries pollute the environment?" It's getting hot.
Subsequently, on June 22, the National Energy Administration publicly solicited opinions on the "Management Specification for New Energy Storage Projects (Provisional)" (draft for comments), which mentioned that "in principle, large-scale power battery energy storage projects with cascade utilization shall not be built".
As we all know, retired power batteries usually have two destinations, one is cascade utilization, and the other is disassembly and recycling. The state urgently stopped the construction of large-scale cascade energy storage projects for power batteries. Does it mean that the government does not encourage and support the cascade utilization of power batteries, but tends to dispose of waste batteries by dismantling and recycling?
In addition, with the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, a large number of power batteries began to retire. Are you ready?
The processing capacity of existing waste batteries is seriously surplus.
This is an era of new energy and electricity.
In the past year, China's new energy automobile industry entered an explosive period, with new crossovers, new electric vehicle products, new batteries and intelligent technologies emerging one after another, and the sales volume increased greatly, attracting all kinds of capital and becoming the hottest investment sector at present.
20 1 1 year, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China is only 8 159 vehicles. No one knows that this number will increase by 166 times in ten years.
By the end of May 20021,the number of new energy vehicles in China had reached 5.8 million, accounting for about half of the global total. Although this is a development achievement with a great sense of accomplishment, after the rapid increase in the popularity of electric vehicles, power batteries, as a core component, have now ushered in the peak of retirement.
According to the data of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, in 2020, the cumulative decommissioning amount of power batteries in China will reach about 200,000 tons, and by 2025, this number will rise to about 780,000 tons.
As we all know, waste batteries will cause great pollution to the environment if they are not handled properly, especially the power batteries of electric vehicles, which not only contain heavy metals such as nickel, cobalt and manganese, but also the lithium hexafluorophosphate in the electrolyte is easy to hydrolyze in the air environment to produce harmful substances such as phosphorus pentafluoride and hydrogen fluoride, which poses a great threat to the environment. Electric vehicles produce 200,000 tons of retired power batteries every year. Whether it can be recycled scientifically and effectively is a major environmental problem.
What the outside world is worried about is that the increment of retired power batteries is so large, can our processing capacity keep up?
In fact, this is alarmist.
There are a large number of retired power batteries in China, and the actual processing capacity is large. Statistics show that at present, the recycling capacity of scrapped power batteries in China is 6.5438+0.2 million tons/year, but the corresponding actual recycling capacity is only about 2-3 million tons, and the production capacity is five or six times the demand. Even if the decommissioning capacity of power batteries is expected to reach 780,000 tons in 2025, it is more than enough.
"At present, there are more than 20 regular large-scale power battery recycling enterprises in China with sufficient production capacity. The problem now is not that it cannot be handled (retired power battery), but that it cannot receive batteries. " Gu told Da, deputy director of Qingdao Automobile Research Institute of Jilin University and expert of Electrical Technology Branch of China Automotive Engineering Society.
In the barbaric growth period of new energy vehicles in the past, with the encouragement of subsidy policy, many immature vehicles entered the market and failed to fulfill their mission. "Except for a few automakers such as BYD and Toyota, there is no battery that will be retired after running the vehicle life cycle in a real sense." Gu said.
In addition, due to the increasing price of retired power batteries, some small enterprises and workshops are hoarding goods, which also leads to the number of retired power batteries circulating in the market far below the industry estimate.
According to Shenzhen Business Daily, Shenzhen Gantai Energy Recycling Technology Co., Ltd., the only enterprise in Shenzhen listed in the "white list" of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, is currently in a dilemma of "batteries cannot be recycled".
Gantai is not a case. In fact, many battery recycling companies are also trying to find sources. "Including listed companies GEM and Shenzhen Gantai, many factories of these regular power battery recycling enterprises are empty and their equipment is idle." Gu said.
Why did the Energy Bureau "stop" the cascade utilization of batteries?
Since the processing capacity is completely abundant, the next question is, how to deal with the retired power battery, whether to use it gradually to maximize the effectiveness of the retired battery, or to directly disassemble the battery and recover metals such as nickel, cobalt and manganese from the raw materials?
As the "last mile" of the new energy automobile industry, the step-by-step utilization of retired power batteries was once recognized as a blue ocean in the industry.
According to national standards, 80% of the power battery capacity of new energy vehicles can be retired, but the retired power battery still has great use value. Even if the capacity is only about 60%, the service life can still reach several months to several years according to different usage scenarios, forming a huge market.
Wei Honglian, chief engineer of the Solid Waste and Chemicals Management Technology Center of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, once predicted that by 2025, the decommissioning amount of power lithium batteries in China will exceed 730,000 tons, 70% of which can be used in stages, and the market scale will exceed 20 billion yuan.
After retiring, the power battery of new energy vehicles can be disassembled into modules or batteries to form small batteries, which can be used in low-speed electric vehicles, electric bicycles, solar street lamps and other products. It is also possible to combine multiple complete battery packs to store energy for wind energy, photovoltaic and other scenes, of which the latter was once considered as the best solution to solve the problem of battery retirement in new energy vehicles.
According to an experimental data of contemporary Apricot Technology Co., Ltd., a ton of lithium ferrous phosphate can be used step by step to get about 30 thousand yuan, while the direct recovery of raw materials can only get about 1 10 thousand yuan. A ton of ternary lithium battery can get a profit of 80,000 yuan through step-by-step utilization, and only about 40,000 yuan can be obtained through direct disassembly. Power battery recycling enterprises are also more willing to choose step-by-step utilization.
In April this year, the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage (Draft for Comment)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau also put forward the energy storage goal: by 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30 million kilowatts.
In this case, why did the Energy Bureau stop building large-scale power battery cascade energy storage projects?
"At present, some safety problems of new power batteries (including lithium ferrous phosphate) have not been completely solved, and new batteries are not used well, let alone large-capacity energy storage power stations." Gu hit the nail on the head and told the reason.
This is not based on empty analysis, but the fact that iron blood exists. In April this year, a serious accident occurred at the largest commercial user-side energy storage power station in the center of Beijing. A fire broke out in the 25 MW-hour DC optical storage and charging integrated power station in Dahongmen, Jimei, Fengtai District, Beijing. The north area of the power station suddenly exploded without warning, and two firefighters died.
In the accident analysis report, China Electric Power Research Institute pointed out two major reasons for the explosion of energy storage power stations: on the one hand, the fundamental reason for the combustion and explosion of lithium-ion batteries lies in the thermal runaway of the batteries, such as the failure to guarantee the safety and quality of energy storage batteries, which is prone to thermal runaway under general abuse conditions; On the other hand, the BMS, PC, transformer, related relay protection equipment and communication equipment contained in the battery energy storage system may have quality defects, irregular installation and debugging process, unreasonable setting and insufficient insulation, which directly or indirectly cause the safety problems of the energy storage system.
At present, there is no key breakthrough in the consistency management technology of power batteries in China, and the performance monitoring and evaluation system of power batteries is not perfect, which is also the reason why the Energy Bureau poured cold water on the cascade utilization of power battery energy storage projects.
In fact, with the decline of raw material cost, the price of power battery has dropped by nearly 90% in the past decade, and the cost advantage of cascade utilization is gradually disappearing.
To solve this problem, Gu believes that power battery manufacturers should manufacture different types of batteries according to different usage scenarios, such as lithium manganate, lithium ferrous phosphate, lithium ternary, cobalt-free batteries, sodium ion batteries, solid-state semi-solid batteries and so on. Can play a role in the appropriate scene.
He mentioned that "after the battery is unqualified or retired, it can be recycled by dry or wet treatment, and then taken to the garbage incineration power plant for final treatment, thus completing a closed loop without loopholes."
Battery recycling should be unprotected and put on the market.
With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the power battery recycling industry has ushered in spring. However, the relevant battery recycling standards and industrial chain have not yet been fully formed, and the whole market is still in a disorderly state.
According to orient securities's research report, by 2025, the domestic power battery recycling market, including step-by-step utilization and recycling, is expected to reach $37 billion. Everbright Securities Research Report predicts that by 2030, the recycling market of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries will exceed 654.38+000 billion. At present, this market has at least tens of billions.
At the same time, power battery recycling enterprises have mushroomed.
According to the survey data of enterprises, as of press time, there are 145 17 related enterprises engaged in "power battery recycling" in China, and the competition is fierce. Among them, there are only 27 "regular troops" licensed by the state, that is, enterprises with the qualification of recycling used batteries, and the rest 14490 are small and medium-sized enterprises or even small workshops.
As mentioned above, these 27 formal enterprises have sufficient production capacity, but they face the embarrassment of not receiving batteries. One of the main reasons is that a large number of retired power batteries flow to informal gray channels.
Compared with unqualified small and medium-sized enterprises and small workshops, the environmental protection cost of regular large enterprises is undoubtedly much higher, and they are not competitive in bidding, which makes the "regular army" unable to compete with small workshops in the "battery grab" war. Less than half of the 20 tons of decommissioned power batteries produced in 2020 will flow into 27 formal enterprises.
The advantage of small workshop enterprises is flexible operation, but the standardization is poor, which has great hidden dangers in safety and environmental protection.
On the one hand, the recycling technology of these small workshops is immature and the equipment is not complete, which not only leads to low recycling efficiency and waste of resources, but also may lead to explosion risk when disassembling. On the other hand, in the process of disassembling and extracting metal from power battery, waste gas, waste liquid and waste residue will be produced. Small workshops that discharge pollutants privately cannot properly handle these wastes, or even discharge them at will, which will cause serious pollution to the environment.
Therefore, at the 20021China Blue Book Forum, Xu Heyi urged the layout of China's power battery recycling system as soon as possible to form relevant battery recycling standards and industrial chains.
The promotion of industrial concentration is one of the important signs of industrial maturity. The power battery recycling market needs to build a stable and orderly order, and also needs a group of leading enterprises that can become the backbone of the industry, thus promoting the healthy development of the whole industry.
Regrettably, even with the "white list" protection, 27 formal enterprises have failed to become the main force in the power battery recycling industry.
Among the 27 formal enterprises, GEM is the largest. The company landed on the SME board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange on 20 10, and its net profit in 2020 was 4130,000 yuan, down 43.9% year-on-year, the lowest in the last four years.
"The power battery recycling industry should cancel subsidies and make the industry truly market-oriented." Gu believes that only by realizing marketization can power battery recycling enterprises compete fairly, and truly capable and powerful enterprises grow up and promote the healthy development of the industry.
At present, some local governments have introduced policies to subsidize battery recycling, such as Shenzhen, which subsidizes 20 yuan for every kilowatt hour. This form of economic intervention can promote the development of the industry in the early stage, but enterprises rely too much on government subsidies, which is not conducive to the development of enterprises and the whole industry.
It is for this reason that new energy vehicles gradually withdraw from subsidies.
The same is true for the battery recycling industry. When the industry develops to a certain stage, we should consider canceling the "white list" and government subsidies to enhance the degree of marketization. At the same time, relevant departments should speed up the establishment of a management system for recycling scrapped power batteries, strengthen the supervision of power battery recycling enterprises, and improve the marketization of the industry. This is the right way.
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