Analysis of the current situation of the liquor market in China

Baijiu: water flows to the high place

In China, we have to ask which industry is the most primitive and most backward, but also the most manic and the craziest, and can not be said, that is, the liquor industry. From the shocking case of Shuozhou fake wine to the wine culture flag fluttering around the apartment, from making the deification of the king of the standard Qinchi, Kongfu family to now flying hundreds of thousands of high-priced wine, the best wine, big companies and big brands, "collectively to fly high." Small and medium-sized enterprises are not lagging behind in the slightest, the conditions are also to be on, unconditional also to be on, China's liquor industry in the experience of the "advertising wine", "blended wine" and other criticized times, seems to be turned into a "high-grade wine!

The liquor industry seems to be turning into a "high-grade wine" and "high-quality wine" boom after the criticized era of "advertising wine" and "blended wine".

Currently, the competition pattern of China's high-grade liquor can be divided into four camps: Wuliangye, Moutai, two old brands in the first camp; Shui Jingfang, liquor, wine, cellar wine 1573 and other representatives of the strong brand in the second camp; Xifeng wine, Sheridan wine, Dacheng Mingcellar high-quality products, such as the representative of the sub-strong brand in the third camp; the fourth camp is the small and medium-sized enterprises as the representative of regional brands or miscellaneous brand army. The fourth camp is represented by small and medium-sized enterprises as the regional brand or miscellaneous army, the brand distribution of high-grade wine is the largest number of manufacturers have a considerable part of the launch of their own high-grade brand, the number of rough estimates of two to three hundred, the difference is into the gas is not gas, the life expectancy is long or short.

High-grade wine refers to liquor priced at 150 yuan or more. At present, China's liquor important place of origin for Sichuan, Guizhou, Shandong and Anhui, high-grade wine is mainly concentrated in the first two places, it is reported that, including the "six golden flowers of Sichuan wine", including Sichuan wine, Anhui wine, Su wine, etc. will be in the high-end wine market in the whole line of attack, and even including Luzhou Laojiao, Tuopai, Yanghe, Jinsheng edge of such a veteran of low-grade wine.

Why a few years ago is still high and low, the high-grade liquor market, is now smoke and mirrors? In a nutshell, high-grade liquor's rich profits and intangible image of respectability, or in short, "to the amount of more price" and "price more to phase" business ideas tend to make. Furthermore, from the macro-policy, 2001 tax changes, in the amount of taxation and exemption from deductions under the pressure of the two-way weight, liquor enterprises suffered a hundred years of frost immersion, faced with a very difficult choice: if you seek profits, you must break the arm of the survival of the low-end wine cut; if you seek the market, low and medium-grade potential to become the main force; and high school and low bloom, it is difficult to Suiyi. National liquor production of the largest factory Tuopai distillery, a responsible person said: "Now Tuopai do not want to produce too much quantity of liquor, in the case of really no way, we will increase production." In the past, the pursuit of scale is the heart of the liquor factory to love, but at this time even Tuopai such as the production of low-grade wine-based enterprises also come to a "brainstorming", which really makes people sigh "the way of the world is not ancient."

High-grade wine, liquor companies, is the wire spinning dance, such as walking on thin ice, or step by step, straight through the sunshine? For the time being. But one thing must be clear is that liquor companies both with the past so-called "three high and one low" (high price, high packaging, high promotions, low quality) of short-term behavior to draw a line, abandon that "high-priced wine is a high-grade wine," the hype of the wind; but also pay attention to improve the quality of products, enrich the product image as the connotation of the product. Product quality, rich product image as the connotation of the brand marketing, and constantly in the innovation breakthrough, breakthrough in the leap, sustained, stable and healthy to promote China's liquor to the green, high-quality goods, brand-name development.

Wine: winery is a hurdle

Following the Yantai Zhangyu Winemaking Co., Ltd. and the French Castel company to create a full range of cooperation in China's first real sense of the wine estate, our country has Yung Chen Winemaker, Liaoning Asia Red Winemaker, Red Leaf Winemaker, Nanshan Winemaker and so on swarming. Geng Zhaolin, chairman of China's winemaking industry association, said: "on the winery, push the real estate wine, which is China's wine enterprises across the critical step with international standards, but also domestic wine in the WTO accession, fighting high-end market, the force to shape the brand image of another magic weapon."

The current market ordinary dry red, dry white a bottle of 25-40 yuan, this price is basically similar to the international market. But in terms of our national average income, this price seems high. More than a decade, China's wine production has been hovering around 300,000 tons, 300,000 tons seems to be an insurmountable hurdle.

If China takes the winery road in the future, the price of a bottle of red wine is bound to climb to between 50-90 yuan, wine will be high, further away from the Chinese people, red wine to expand the road may be more narrow. But do not take the winery road, China's wine into Europe and the United States as the first international market will be everywhere encountered green barriers, but also difficult to resist the foreign red wine to take advantage of the accession to the WTO tariffs significantly lowered the opportunity to encroach. Therefore, the results of China's high-grade wine road will be full of suspense.

Beer: high but not low

In China's wine upscale road, beer can be said to be one of the most difficult to walk.

Currently, China's beer brands up to more than 1,500, but in addition to Qingdao, Yanjing, Pearl River, Jinxing, Harbin, Huiquan and other famous brands, most of the brands are 2-2.8 yuan low-grade regional brands.

According to the China Brewing Industry Association statistics show that 45% of China's beer industry is in the margins of the loss or slight loss, 32% of the enterprise capital preservation, only less than 20% of the enterprise development is good, profitability space is larger, the enterprise growth has the advantage of lucrative resources. "Raise prices to find death, do not raise prices and so on." This is a very embarrassing reality of China's beer enterprises. Raise prices, a bottle of mention it one or two cents, may also be a drop in the bucket, and will offend the very sensitive nerves of consumers; do not mention, the enterprise's limited resources and unlimited expansion of operating costs of the contradiction will become increasingly acute, the enterprise may be faced with a broken arm of the figure to survive or even change the status quo. Since the "fine-tuning" is difficult to become a climate, a possibility is "big adjustment". Therefore, take the road to high-grade, high-quality products, excellent development, to high-grade to profit, to the brand to benefit from the implementation of high-grade wine as a leader (the ideal proportion should not be less than 25% of the proportion of the entire enterprise production and marketing), mid-range wine as the main business strategy, is the majority of China's beer companies seek to survive and stand in the world of beer is a fundamental initiative.

However, "the high place is not cold", China's beer upscale road, is not an easy thing. At present, most of China's high-end beer space is divided by foreign beer, high-grade market foreign beer accounted for more than 70%, so that the high-end space crowded, very narrow. High-grade foreign beers are mainly Budweiser, Heineken, Corona, Le Cordon Bleu, San Miguel, Carlsberg, Suntory, Asahi, etc., of which Budweiser, Heineken and Carlsberg accounted for the bulk of the Budweiser's annual sales now have 100,000 tons, the performance is quite good.

There are two kinds of high-grade beer, one is bottled and the other is bottled. Bottled with 325ml, 355ml, 410ml, 620ml, 640ml and other packaging, bottled beer appeared increasingly fashionable, fresh, unique, trend-setting small bottle consumption tendency and the smaller the capacity of the higher the price of the market trend. The price of high-grade bottled beer is generally above 3.5 yuan, for example, Budweiser "Silver Bullet" is 6.5 yuan per bottle, Corona is 7.5 yuan, and the highest is Heineken, which is as high as 12 yuan per bottle, which is worth pondering over in the industry. High-grade listening to the retail price of beer is generally 3.5 yuan, a good single can is between 5, 6 yuan. Listening to the beer used to be synonymous with high-grade, but in recent years it seems to have sunk, gradually faded out in the market. Therefore, in the new round of national beer upscale long march road, listen to the beer can rise again to pick up the burden, become a new point of corporate profits is a new focus of attention.

2.

Analysis of China's alcohol consumption structure

The main types of alcohol consumed by China's residents are liquor, beer and wine. With the change of consumption environment and consumption concept, the proportion of each type of alcohol will keep changing. In the total consumption of liquor, beer and wine, from 2003 to 2008, the proportion of liquor showed a "U"-shaped trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with the lowest proportion of only 9.6% in 2004; and the proportion of beer consumption showed an inverse trend of first increasing and then decreasing in the copyrighted China Wine News. The proportion of beer consumption, on the other hand, showed an inverted "U"-shaped trend, with the highest proportion of 89.3% in 2004; the proportion of wine consumption showed random fluctuations between years, but the fluctuation range was not large, basically between 1% and 2%. Overall, in China's consumption of alcoholic beverages, beer accounts for the vast majority of goods, close to 90%, liquor consumption is stable at about 10%, and the proportion of wine consumption is relatively small, between 1-2%.

3.

The year 2010 is not yet over, and there is no complete data yet.

Definition:Alcohol consumption, Liters per capita (15+)Countries196019701980 19902000200320062007Australia9.411.612.910.59.89. 8Austria10.913.913.812.611.111.1Belgium8.911.713.512.110.310.7Canada7.08.810.77.47.67.8Czech Republic11.711.311.812.111.9 Denmark5.58.611.711.713.113.012.212.1Finland2.75.87.99.58.69.310.1France20.419.515.914.013.4Germany7.513.413.810.510.210. 1Greece13.210.69.59.0Hungary8.211.514.913.912.013.2Iceland3.84.35.26.16.57.2Ireland4.97.09.611.214.213.513.4Italy16.617.816.311. 09.08.1Japan6.17.19.28.68.47.9Korea9.18.98.6Luxembourg13.112.813.414.815.415.5Mexico3.34.94.84.6Netherlands3.77.811.59.910.19.7New Zealand5.39.811. Zealand5.39.811.810.18.98.99.49.2Norway3.44.75.35.05.76.06.5Poland8.38.38.1Portugal14.816.112.911.4Slovak Republic6.912.814.513. 48.97.48.6Spain16.118.413.511.511.7Sweden4.87.26.76.46.27.06.8Switzerland12.114.213.512.911.210.810.2Turkey0.91.11.81.41.51.51.2 United Kingdom7.19.49.810.411.210.9United States7.89.59.510.58.38.18.1

4.

For a long time, yellow wine has been isolated and popular mainly in the south of the Yangtze River. Jiang, Zhejiang and Shanghai account for about 80% of the country's sales. The vast majority of Chinese people outside of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai don't know about yellow wine, don't recognize it, and rarely drink it.

If the annual per capita consumption of 10.5 kilograms of yellow wine in Shanghai is used as the basis for calculation, the optimistic forecast of China's yellow wine market capacity can reach 13 million tons; if the per capita consumption of 8.8 kilograms of yellow wine per year is forecasted for the three regions of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, the capacity of the yellow wine market can reach 11 million tons. Let's assume that by 2015, per capita consumption of yellow wine in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai will be 15 liters, and per capita consumption in other regions will be 3 liters, with the yellow wine consuming population accounting for 60% of the total population (during which time China's population will grow at a natural rate of 0.5% per annum). By 2015, then, China's yellow wine market will reach 3.6 million kiloliters, with per capita consumption of 2.66 liters, equivalent to the current level of per capita consumption of white wine.

Yellow wine producers are concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, which together account for as much as 83% of the market. Seventy percent of yellow wine consumption is concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai, which account for 10.6 percent of the country's population. In recent years, benefiting from the sustained economic growth, the brewing industry also reflects the structural changes brought about by the consumption upgrade: the demand for wine has changed from "simple hobby" to "nutritional health care", and the bad drinking concept of high degree and strength has been increasingly abandoned by the people, and the low degree of yellow wine has gradually gained recognition for its nutritional and health care advantages, Since 2001, yellow wine has gradually stepped out of the geographical limitations of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai to develop into a national market.

Yellow wine has experienced a restorative growth from 03 to 05, and accumulated energy in 06 and 07, which will usher in the second peak moment of yellow wine in the next 10 years. The position of an industry in the market is determined by the scale of the industry, and the scale effect is a prerequisite for winning the right to speak in the market. The scale effect of the yellow wine industry has begun to manifest itself, and the concentration of the industry has begun to improve. The industrial integration and asset reorganization of listed companies has also contributed to the development of the yellow wine industry, and the concentration of the market has increased year by year.

In 2008, affected by the financial crisis, the domestic market for high-end yellow wine gradually shrunk. In the face of the market crisis, many enterprises began to think of change and seek opportunities in danger. Many enterprises are guided by the market's advantages and disadvantages to adjust their product structure and gradually increase their efforts to research and develop fashionable yellow wines for young people to drink according to the market demand.

The active product adjustment by yellow wine enterprises has had a good effect on the industry as a whole, especially in the uncertain economic environment, the sales volume of yellow wine in 2009 not only did not decrease, but was better than that in 2008, although the consumption of high-grade yellow wine has had an impact on the frequency of consumption of yellow wine.

From the overall development trend of the yellow wine industry in recent years, it can be expected that the overall development of China's yellow wine industry in 2010 will be upward, especially the development of the regional yellow wine industry will be further developed in the next few years, and the comprehensive competitiveness will be further strengthened.