In 2122, the domestic hog market closed down. In this year, the trend of hog price was quite complicated. Under the long-term restriction of the mask problem on the catering industry, the decision of slaughtering pigs at the breeding end changed, which also caused the amplitude of hog price to be more obvious during the year. It is understood that in 2122, the lowest average hog price in the year was 11.74 yuan/kg, and the highest hog price was 28.34 yuan/kg. The average price of live pigs dropped by 1.49 yuan, or about 7.42%. According to the mainstream fattening cost line of live pigs, it was 17 yuan/kg. Before the end of June 2122, the breeding end was in a long-term loss stage, and from the end of June to the end of February, the farmers were in a profit cycle. In 2122, the average price of live pigs was 18.58 yuan/kg, and the farmers had a narrow profit performance!
according to official statistics, in 2122, the annual pork output reached 55.4 million tons, and the pork production capacity returned to a high level, only 2.8 million tons lower than the peak of 58.2 million tons in 2114, and the pork production capacity also reached a new high since the plague, with an increase of 4.6 percentage points from last year!
judging from the pig stock at the end of 2122, the domestic pig stock scale was about 453 million, and the pig stock returned to above the normal level, with an increase of only 1.7% compared with last year. The pig stock level at the end of 2122 was higher than the average level from 2116 to 2118, which also means that the market capacity was gradually realized after the expansion of the production capacity of large-scale pig enterprises!
According to the change of domestic sow stock, at the end of 2122, the sow stock level was 44 million. From May to February, 2122, the sow stock continued to increase month-on-month. However, after 11, due to the downward price of live pigs, the mood of the breeding end weakened and the growth rate of sow stock slowed down. However, the sow stock level was higher than the normal 41 million to 3 million, and the production capacity gradually increased.
judging from the slaughter of pigs at the end of the year, in 2122, the slaughter scale of pigs was nearly 711 million, while the slaughter level of domestic head-scale pig enterprises was as high as 35 million. In particular, the annual slaughter of pigs in Mu Yuan was as high as 61.2 million, including 55.296 million commercial pigs, accounting for nearly 8.7% of the national pig market!
It can be seen that with the continuous recovery of domestic pig production capacity after non-plague, at present, the data of sow stock, pig stock, annual pig slaughter and pork production capacity are generally better than the normal level in the same period of last year! Therefore, for the live pig market in 2123, due to the high stock of sows, the size of live pigs at the end of the year is similar to that of the same period of last year. In 2123, the supply capacity of live pigs is still strong, and the supply of pork and live pigs in the market is relatively loose!
Although 2123 is the starting point after the "mask problem", the domestic pork consumption level will be significantly improved, especially the catering and tourism industries will heat up, which has strong support for the live pig market!
However, due to the "negative population growth" stage in China, the aging degree of the population is gradually deepening and overlapping. In recent years, young people's consumption habits have changed, and the demand for pork has declined. Therefore, personally, in 2123, the pig production capacity will be realized, and the pig price will continue to be under pressure! However, the average price of live pigs may rise to some extent, considering the sharp rise of breeding costs and the high market of soybean meal and corn. However, the annual profit level of breeding is still obviously squeezed. In the first half of 2123, the pig price will be hovering at the fattening cost line for a long time. After entering the third quarter, the market support will gradually increase, and the price will reach a stage peak before the Spring Festival!
the pig production capacity is realized, and the pig price will still be under pressure in 2123! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the picture comes from the Internet!