BT Finance
The impact of the epidemic on the restaurant industry is still being felt, even if it's as strong as the hot pot giant Haikou, which is not immune.
Haidilao released 2020 results preview shows that the expected 2020 annual net profit compared to 2019 fell about 90%. The announcement shows that the net profit of Haidilao in 2019 is 2.347 billion yuan, which calculates the net profit of Haidilao in 2020 is only 235 million yuan.
What's puzzling is that Haidilao's net profit is plummeting on the one hand, and its stock price is soaring against the trend on the other.
March 2, Haidilao total market value exceeded 363.8 billion Hong Kong dollars. 2020 so far, Haidilao's cumulative stock price rose more than 120%, market value growth of nearly 200 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Why is Haidilao, whose performance is in serious decline, still favored and sought after by the capital market?
At the height of the epidemic, wildly open new stores
Early last year, the sudden epidemic on the catering industry is like a Tarzan. During the epidemic, Haidilao shut down for 46 days, the physical stores almost no income.
When many once well-run restaurant chain brands had no choice but to lay off employees, close stores, and save costs to cope with the difficult times, Haidilao did not stop expanding and opening stores. Just in the first half of 2020, 173 new Haidilao stores were grandly opened during the toughest of times.
Industry insiders analyze the impact of the epidemic, belonging to the non-market factors, all catering enterprises can not be alone. As the leading hot pot field, Haidilao take the opportunity to bottom out and step up store, with lower costs to seize market share, so that its head advantage to further amplify, is conducive to the easing of the epidemic to achieve a reversal of the market turnaround.
At the same time, the capital market's assessment of companies will not be based on just one year's operating profit. For such industry leaders, the capital market will be more objective view of the impact of the epidemic on the performance of the sea salvage, the sea salvage in recent years, the growth of the eye **** witnessed, naturally become the market capital of the pursuit of objects.
Originally, Haidilao never rely on others
Haidilao is another reason why the capital market is optimistic, is to Haidilao offline brand as the core of the omni-channel value chain development model, as well as the catering industry horizontal layout.
From meat dishes to primer supply and cold chain logistics transportation, from human resources training to store decoration, Haidilao supply chain of each link, there are professional companies operating independently. These supply chain companies, not only to provide services to Haidilao, but also open to the outside world, for other catering companies to provide counterpart business.
That is to say, Haidilao now can not rely on others to do business, all the industry chain is their own , this layout is actually very horrible, like real estate directly contracted to the upstream of the building of reinforced concrete and downstream of all the needs of the households.
In addition, in 2011, Shu Hai split from Haidilao, to the whole industry to provide customized ingredients and logistics and distribution services. 2013, Yi Hai and split from Haidilao, to the whole hot pot industry frying base, and listed in 2016, and now the market value of the market value of more than one hundred billion Hong Kong dollars ......
In the food and beverage industry Upstream, midstream and downstream, Haidilao has its own company, which makes it have a stronger industry competitiveness, influence, and thus become the meat and potatoes in the eyes of investors.
Market sinking, layout of fast food track
To the second and third tier cities to open more stores, occupy more sinking market, has been one of the direction of the Haidilao efforts.
Since 2020, a number of fast-food subsidiary brands of Haidilao have been intensively exposed: Beijing's "eighteen-boil", Chengdu's "Lao Pai has a face", Zhengzhou's Bai Bran private noodles, Xi'an's "new Qin Pai Noodle House", and the stores have not yet landed. "The company's main goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, and the company's goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers, and the company's goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers.
These brands are exceedingly cheap, like Beijing's Eighteen Boil at an average price of 9.9 RMB, Zhengzhou's Bai Bran at an average price of 7 RMB, and Chengdu's Lao Pai Yau Mien's specialty cold noodles for only 2.99 RMB.
Layout of the sinking market, the layout of the fast food track, so that Haidilao more and more to the masses, this strategy in the current epidemic impact, the economic slowdown of the background, for the company to improve the food service revenue to create more space and the possibility.
Previously, hot pot takeout was constrained by the hot pot scene, hot pot characteristics, distribution costs, and consumer habits, there has not been much of a breakthrough. Before the epidemic, there were very few stores that could provide takeaway services.
And the emergence of the epidemic, so that more consumers began to eat hot pot at home through takeout, buy ingredients, a new hot pot consumption scene, hot pot takeout has become a new growth point in the industry.
In the first half of 2020, Haidilao's takeaway business generated revenue of 409.6 million yuan, an increase of 123.7% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, in order to meet consumer demand for hotpot takeout during the epidemic, Haidilao has been rapidly expanding its takeout business, and as of June 2020,*** there were 299 available for delivery service.
The hotpot takeout and home self-salivation have made the "one-stop shopping" hotpot ingredients supermarket, which is derived from the supply chain of hotpot ingredients, "hot".
In November 2020, Haijilao opened a new supermarket in Beijing. In November 2020, Haidilao opened a "Haidilao Delivery Food Ingredients Self-Pickup Station" in Beijing. The store is not only a delivery station for online takeout, but also supports consumers to store for ingredients in the store.
So it makes sense that Haidilao's stock price is stable, because many investors look forward, but looking backward at the fundamentals, Haidilao's stable roots are a bit of a stretch.
The root cause is, Haidilao performance growth, mainly from the increase in the number of stores, operational efficiency enhancement but can not keep up , you can see since the listing, Haidilao turnover rate, the same store sales growth rate has been declining. Haidilao has previously been the average turnover rate (times / day) to maintain more than 5, to 2019, but fell to 4.8, the first half of last year, special circumstances fell to 3.3.
And the same-store sales growth rate, from 2018's 6.2%, fell to 2019's 1.6%, and then Haidilao simply do not announce the same-store sales and the same-store sales growth rate.
In addition, Haidilao is currently in the "boat is difficult to turn around" situation, because the stores, employees are very much, before someone calculated that off one day, Haidilao expenditure is 20 million, so after the results of Haidilao announced, there are brokerage firms have downgraded Haidilao target price, no longer optimistic about Haidilao! The "big pot of fried everything" stock price myth.