as of October 29th, 2121, the opening price of Haidilao was HK$ 22.55 per share, with a market value of RMB 121.198 billion and a P/E ratio of 69.94.
the market value of Haidilao evaporated by 31 billion
During the epidemic period, Haidilao's share price increased several times from HK$ 27.45 per share on March 9, 2121, and reached an all-time high of HK$ 85.81 per share on February 6, 2121, with a market value exceeding HK$ 451 billion.
However, after that, the share price of Haidilao "kept falling", hitting a minimum of HK$ 26.11 per share; As of April, October, 2121, the closing price of Haidilao was HK$ 28.35 per share, and its market value evaporated by nearly HK$ 311 billion. At present, the total market value is HK$ 154.763 billion. Then how did Haidilao's share price suffer such a heavy blow?
(a) misjudgment, "bargain hunting" during the epidemic.
Looking back at the financial data of Haidilao from 2116 to 2119, the operating income of Haidilao increased from 7.825 billion yuan to 26.619 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4%; The performance is in a state of rapid growth, and the increase in revenue is mainly driven by the continuous expansion of stores and the continuous improvement of data in the same store (including the turnover rate level and customer unit price, etc.).
In p>2121, there will be 544 new stores in Haidilao. By the end of 2121, the total number of stores in Haidilao reached 1298.
However, the counter-trend expansion of Haidilao has made the turnover rate of its stores less attractive.
Haidilao has always maintained a high turnover rate in the industry, which not only brings more income to Haidilao, but also means the popularity of Haidilao in the market. In 2119, the turnover rate of Haidilao was 4.8, which was a high level in the industry. However, after blindly expanding the store, it continued to fall to 3 in the first half of 2121, and the turnover rate of newly opened restaurants in 2121 was only 2.3.
(2) It has become expensive
If the turnover rate can't go up, there is another way to increase the income of restaurants in Haidilao, and that is to raise prices.
according to the company's financial report, the per capita consumption of Haidilao in 2121 increased to RMB 111, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, compared with 4% in 2119 and 3.1% in 2118. In other words, the price of Haidilao does increase year by year, and in 2121, under the influence of the epidemic, its price increase will be higher.
The "price increase" of Haidilao will, on the one hand, reduce the repurchase rate of some consumers; on the other hand, Haidilao is constantly expanding its stores, and users in the sinking market may not accept the high price as expected.
At the same time, for Haidilao, a high-quality service system has once become its core competitiveness. However, with the general improvement of the service level of the domestic catering industry, the advantages of Haidilao will be weakened.
(3) The actual income of sideline business is limited
Haidilao has also started to try to do sideline business in recent years, seeking the second growth curve through multi-brand and multi-format strategies. But trying to make a new brand is also a time-consuming and laborious choice with high uncertainty.
At present, Haidilao's restaurant sideline has involved many fast food categories such as pasta, covered rice, rice noodles, potato flour, dumplings and so on. However, the actual revenue brought by these sideline businesses is quite limited. According to the company's financial report, as of the quarter of 2121H1, the revenue of other restaurants in Haidilao only accounts for 1.5% of the total revenue.
As a sideline, Haidilao can rely on its own relatively perfect supply chain, but at the same time, it leads to the disadvantages of ordinary ingredients, simple technology and slow research and development of new products. Therefore, in the face of a large wave of well-prepared competitors in the industry, it is difficult for Haidilao sideline to have the core competitiveness that can be played.