disk observation
On Wednesday, the three major A-share indexes staged a roller coaster market, which surged back in early trading and rebounded in a V-shape in the afternoon. The total turnover of the two cities was 794.2 billion yuan; The net purchase amount of northbound funds is 1.139 billion yuan. Disk observation: UHV, superconducting concept, electrical equipment and other sectors were among the top gainers; Tourism, hotel catering, medical care and other sectors were among the top losers. As of the close: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.66% to 3,455.67 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.71% to 13781.31 points; Growth enterprise market index rose 1.99% to 3114.41 points.
Outlook for the market outlook
Today, the wind power sector performed strongly, and the securities sector led the index counterattack in the afternoon; The three major stock indexes of A shares finally stopped the decline and collectively closed up, and the Chuangzhi also recovered the 3111 mark; I'm afraid this has something to do with several consecutive articles in several official media today to cheer up the big A shares. In fact, despite some emotional over-interpretation in the market, many of the contents mentioned in the article are consistent with our two closing comments this week; For example, at present, the economic cycle between China and the United States has begun to show a high degree of asynchronization, and China and the United States have also experienced completely opposite differentiation in phased monetary policy. Therefore, investors need not worry too much about the downward pressure on the (domestic) economy this year and the tightening of liquidity by monetary policy.
Yesterday, I mentioned several "unfavorable factors" in the last week of last year: First, the geopolitical tensions abroad actually had little direct impact on China; Second, the holiday hedging effect before the domestic Spring Festival holiday will also fade with time; Third, we expect that the "steady growth" policy mentioned many times before is expected to see substantial progress after the year; Fourth, the shadow of the "interest rate hike" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting tonight will also land in the boots tomorrow morning. In the short term, the market may enter a "negative window period"; From the post-holiday to the policy window of the two sessions, the medium and long-term policies are expected to increase.
As I said yesterday, the "policy bottom" is clear and the "emotional bottom" is unpredictable, but the "market bottom" is indeed getting closer and closer. The negative factors that disturbed the capital market in the short term will gradually fade away, and the emotional venting will eventually pass. Yes, we often fall into deep anxiety and even fear because of the sharp withdrawal of the market; However, historical experience tells us that excessive panic means emotional clearing, and whenever investors gradually despair of the market, it is often the time when market value is highlighted; After every panic, we witnessed the fact that excellent companies quickly recovered and hit new heights again and again.
Operation strategy
Behind the emotions, we always need the support of fundamentals. When we are so anxious that we only pay attention to the graphics and forget the company behind the graphics, we might as well re-examine whether the reasons and logic we chose at the beginning have changed. If it changes, it is natural to stop loss in time; And if not, you might as well stick to your faith and wait for your due return. It is suggested that before the festival, we should watch more and do less, and maintain a balanced allocation in three directions: steady growth (good for big finance, big infrastructure and big consumption), energy revolution (good for carbon neutrality and new energy) and rejuvenating the country through science and technology (good for big technology and big military industry).
Zhao yurui, senior investment consultant of gf securities, with the practice certificate number of S1261614161114.