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The Olympic Games is the most influential and widely participated sports event in the world, which has not only affected the development of sports cultural products and services, but also affected the economic growth of the host city in a deeper level, stimulated the development of regional economy, and then had a significant impact on a country's economy.
By analyzing the history of hosting the Olympic Games in different cities, we can draw a basic conclusion: during the Olympic Games, the economies of the host countries were at a high level, and the economic pull of the Olympic Games reached its peak two years before the Olympic Games. Beijing Olympic Games, the host city benefits greatly, but the overall economic benefits are limited. The promotion of the Olympic Games to the industry is mainly concentrated in the construction industry, transportation and communication industry and social service industry.
Beijing Olympic Games will significantly boost Beijing's GDP growth. From 2113 to 2117, it will boost Beijing's GDP by about 2.3 percentage points annually, and the pulling effect will reach its peak in 2118. We believe that eight areas, including tourism, commerce, real estate, construction, transportation, sports, scientific and technological information, will get significant development opportunities in the Beijing Olympic economy; At the same time, as a platform to show the image of China to the world, some brands in China will be upgraded in value.
According to the performance of stock markets in various countries during the Olympic Games and the high growth trend that China's macro-economy can maintain before 2118, we believe that the Beijing Olympic Games, as a distinctive theme, will still have significant room for growth and can still be used as a key investment direction in the future.
in terms of investment strategy, we suggest to focus on infrastructure, engineering construction, building materials, real estate and information technology at the beginning, and shift to consumer industries, commerce, tourism, food and beverage, and Olympic-related businesses next year. From the perspective of less overall risk, the investment portfolio under the Olympic theme should be dominated by services-oriented stocks such as information, commerce and hotel tourism. With the approaching of the Olympic Games, the theme allocation will be gradually reduced to avoid the systematic risk of Olympic theme investment.
We give three types of combinations for the Beijing Olympic Games. First, we emphasize the investment portfolio benefiting from the initial fixed investment, with emphasis on Beijing Urban Construction, Changjiang Seiko and gehuayouxian. Second, the combination of consumer goods that focus on the consumption and services benefited during the holding period, focusing on CYTS, BTG shares and Wangfujing; Third, the investment portfolio benefited from the brand promotion of the Olympic Games. It is suggested to pay attention to Vantage, Yanjing Beer and Yili, which appeared in the Olympic Games.
The Olympic Games is the most influential and widely participated sports event in the world, which has not only affected the development of sports cultural products and services, but also affected the economic growth of the host city in a deeper level, stimulated the development of regional economy, and then had a significant impact on a country's economy. Therefore, the competition among countries for the right to host the Olympic Games is fierce. Once the right to host the Olympic Games is obtained, we should make full use of this opportunity to show the world our achievements in economy, culture, scientific and technological progress, social development, etc. On the other hand, we should make use of the strong demand brought by hosting the Olympic Games to try our best to stimulate the economic growth of our region and our country and push its economy to a new level of development.
Beijing's successful bid to host the 2118 Olympic Games will promote the development of infrastructure construction, science and technology information industry, sports industry, media advertising, environmental protection, tourism industry, education industry and other industries, and promote the rapid growth of surrounding economic circles and domestic economy. In this process, industries and listed companies related to the Olympic theme will gain new development opportunities, thus bringing great investment opportunities for stock market investment. In order to better understand the Olympic economy and grasp the investment strategy under the Beijing Olympic Games, we give a special analysis of the investment strategy under the Beijing Olympic Games based on the experience of many Olympic host cities.
1 Olympic economy and its basic characteristics
1.1 What is the Olympic economy
Olympic economy is a series of economic activities carried out by the host city during the preparation and hosting of the Olympic Games, and for a period after the Olympic Games, taking advantage of the resource advantages of the Olympic Games and the business opportunities created by the Olympic Games, thus stimulating the economic development of the region and bringing the staged economic development to the host city and country.
The Olympic economy can be divided into two parts: the direct Olympic economy and the indirect Olympic economy. The direct Olympic economy is an economic activity for hosting the Olympic Games and an economic activity around the development of Olympic resources. Indirect Olympic economy refers to the activities that can change the economic and social indicators of the host city and country in the whole process of hosting the Olympic Games, except the direct Olympic economy. Specifically, it includes: direct Olympic economy: 1. Economic activities directly generated for hosting the Olympic Games, such as investment in competition venues and related facilities and investment promotion; 2. Economic activities around the development of Olympic resources, such as the contents of Olympic market development, are mainly composed of sponsorship plans and franchise plans, including the sales income of TV broadcasting rights, sponsorship and ticket income of sponsors, sponsorship of exclusive sponsors in various industries, etc. Indirect Olympic economy: the host city takes the opportunity of the Olympic Games to develop regional economy and accelerate various economic activities of urban construction, such as infrastructure construction, industrial structure adjustment, national quality improvement, ecological environment improvement, new growth points and the cultivation of new industries.
1.2 Stage characteristics of the Olympic economy
From the successful bid to the official hosting and the extension of economic, political, cultural and other effects after the Olympic Games, a complete Olympic economic cycle is formed, which is usually designated as 11~12 internationally.
Olympic economy is generally divided into three stages: pre-Olympic stage, Olympic stage and post-Olympic stage, and each stage presents different characteristics of economic development:
An Olympic economy is divided into three stages: Olympic preparation and construction period (2111-2117), Olympic hosting period (2118) and late Olympic period (2119-2111). The main features of the Olympic economy in each stage are as follows:
(1) In the preparation period of the Olympic Games, the Olympic economy has an impact on China's economy mainly through Olympic investment. Olympic investment can be divided into direct investment and indirect investment. Direct investment refers to the investment directly used in the construction of Olympic competition venues and related facilities, mainly including competition venues, athletes' villages, journalists' villages and media communication facilities. Indirect investment mainly refers to the investment that is needed even if the Olympic Games are not held, but is made in advance or intensified because of the Olympic Games. These investments include investment in improving transportation projects such as roads, airports and subways, municipal construction projects such as water, electricity, heat and gas, and environmental protection expenses such as pollution control, pollution control and greening. Olympic investment will mainly promote the development of Beijing's construction, building materials industry, communication industry, environmental protection industry, scientific research and comprehensive technical service industry, and spread to upstream and downstream related industries and other parts of China through conduction effect and radiation effect.
(2) During the Olympic Games, the increase of external effective demand will drive the economy. These external effective demands include: domestic and foreign tourists travel to China and Beijing for the purpose of the Olympic Games before and during the Olympic Games, and various economic and consumption activities caused by this. These will increase the extra consumption demand for China and Beijing, which will be concentrated in the fields of transportation, post and telecommunications, health and sports, social services, commerce, catering, education, culture, art, radio, film and television. It can be considered that Olympic investment is, to a great extent, the first investment to meet this external effective demand, so as to increase its effective supply.
(3) In the later period of the Olympic Games, the Olympic Games promoted the popularity of the host city and country, and made the economic scale and basic software and hardware facilities of the host city leap to a new level, which injected new vitality into the foreign economic exchanges and the sustainable development of the follow-up tourism of the host city and country. For different regions, the intensity of the Olympic economy is different. For Beijing, because most of the Olympic investment and major Olympic events are concentrated here, the economic promotion of the Olympic Games in Beijing will be direct and obvious, while for other parts of China, the economic growth brought by the Olympic Games will be indirectly shared through the expanded market demand of Olympic investment.
Historical experience of more than 2 Olympic Games
The concept of Olympic economy originated from the Los Angeles Olympic Games in 1984. Uber Ross, an American business genius, creatively combined the Olympic Games with business, making the Los Angeles Olympic Games the "first money-making Olympic Games". Prior to this, all the Olympic Games ended in losing money, especially the Montreal Olympic Games in 1976. The Olympic Games in 2115 left the city in debt for 21 years, which was called the "Montreal trap". After the Los Angeles Olympic Games, the concept of Olympic economy began to appear, and the Olympic Games also brought great benefits to the host city.
2.1 Tokyo Olympic Games in Japan (1964)
As a defeated country in the Second World War, Japan's national strength was in distress in the 1951s, and its people were in dire straits. It is precisely because of the hosting of the Tokyo Olympic Games in 1964 that the Japanese government took hosting the Olympic Games as a national cause and included it in the National Income Multiplication Plan. The government has invested huge sums of money to carry out large-scale public undertakings. These large-scale infrastructure constructions have promoted the rapid development of manufacturing, construction, service, transportation, communication and other industries, and created an economic prosperity known as the "Tokyo Olympic boom". After the Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan's gross national product surpassed Britain and France in 1967 and West Germany in 1968, becoming the second largest economy in the world after the United States.
2.1.1 Impact of Tokyo Olympics on Japan's economy
Japan's investment in preparing for the Tokyo Olympic Games was the highest in the Olympic history at that time. If all investments in related undertakings were counted, it was as high as 1 trillion yen, which was about 3 billion US dollars at the exchange rate of 361 yen from 1 US dollars at that time. Among them, the investment in the competition facilities and the Olympic Village is 16 billion yen, the operating expenses are 6 billion yen, and the roads and other expenses are 82.5 billion yen, totaling about 111 billion yen. The rest are invested for the sudden completion of the preparation of the Tokaido Shinkansen, the capital expressway and Tokyo elevated monorail, the Tokyo subway and the transportation network.
2.1.2 Impact of Tokyo Olympic Games on Different Industries in Japan
The production and employment effects brought by Olympic-related investments in different industries are different. What we analyze below is the impact of Olympic investment in 1964 on different industries in Japan. As far as the production effect is concerned, the service industry investment brings the largest increase in GDP, accounting for 45.2% of the total increase in GDP of related industries, followed by the construction industry, which accounts for 21%, the transportation and communication industry, which accounts for 19.4%, and the manufacturing industry, which accounts for the least, which is 14.4%. From the employment effect, the manufacturing industry has the largest increase in employment population, accounting for 32.3% of the total increase in the population of related industries, while the construction industry and transportation and communication industry are flat, with an increase of 1.8 million people, accounting for 27.7%. The employment effect of service industry is 12.3%.
In-depth analysis shows that in the year of hosting the Olympic Games, domestic and foreign tourists concentrated in the host country, and the investment in the service industry in the early stage was released, so it accounted for the largest increase in GDP in that year. Similarly, due to the centralized completion of construction projects and the full service of the transportation and communication industry for the Olympic Games, the total contribution of the two also accounts for 41%. Relatively speaking, the increase of manufacturing output value is reflected in the Olympic cycle for many years, so it accounts for a relatively small proportion in the year of the Olympic Games.
2.2 Seoul Olympic Games in Korea (1988)
The Seoul Olympic Games in 1988 completed the transformation of Korea from a developing country to a newly industrialized country. According to Korean official statistics, in the seven years from 1981 to 1988, the Olympic project increased the number of Korean employees by 336,111, and the preparation for the Olympic Games brought the production-inducing effect equivalent to $7 billion and the national income-inducing effect equivalent to $2.7 billion. The annual economic growth rate reached 12.4%. From 1985 to 1991, the per capita GDP increased from $2,311 to $6,311. The pulling effect of the 1988 Seoul Olympic Games on the national economy and the resulting economic boom are called "Olympic production effect".
2.2.1 Impact of Seoul Olympic Games on Korean economy
Investment in related industries of Seoul Olympic Games started in 1982. In 1982, the Olympic Games and its related investment did not exceed 1.3% of the total domestic investment, and then gradually increased. In 1985, it reached 477.3 billion won (equivalent to 1,311 won at 1 US dollars, about 371 million US dollars), accounting for 2.1% of the total domestic investment in Korea at that time.
from 1982 to 1988, the Olympic Games invested 2,382.6 billion won, driving the GDP to increase by 4,751.4 billion won, and the investment multiplier was approximately 1.7. From 1982 to 1988, the total domestic investment in Korea was 1.55593 billion won, and the Olympic investment accounted for 1.5% of the total investment.
The direct effects of the above investments are as follows: the economic benefits from the investment in 1982-1988 are equivalent to 1.4% of the gross national product of Korea in 1982-1988; At the same time, the employment opportunities directly increased by the investment in Olympic-related industries reached 336,111 during 1982-1988. By the end of 1988, the employment increase accounted for 1.5% of the number of industrial employees in Korea.
2.2.2 Impact of Seoul Olympic Games on Different Industries in Korea
The effects of production, income and employment caused by investment in Olympic-related industries are quite different in terms of industry distribution. The following analysis is the impact of Olympic investment on different industries in Korea from 1982 to 1988. As far as the production effect is concerned, the manufacturing industry brings the largest increase in GDP, which is 1,648.3 billion won, accounting for 35%; Followed by the construction industry accounted for 33%, service industry accounted for 21%. From the perspective of employment effect, the service industry has the largest increase in the number of employed people, accounting for 45.8% of the total increase in the population of related industries, followed by the construction industry and manufacturing industry, accounting for 28% and 16% respectively. We observed that in a longer period of time, that is, from the beginning of Olympic-related investment to the end of the Olympic Games, the increase in industrial output value caused by investment was more evenly distributed, with manufacturing and construction industries contributing the most, accounting for 68% of the total output value increase, while service industry was slightly less.
2.3 Sydney Olympic Games in Australia
The Sydney Olympic Games in p>2111 was called "the best Olympic Games" by former IOC President Samaranch, which won a good reputation for Australia. More importantly, by preparing for the Olympic Games, Sydney has greatly promoted urban construction, improved the ecological environment, and promoted the development of transportation, tourism, real estate and other related industries, thus greatly enhancing the visibility of Sydney and its position in the world.
2.3.1 Impact of Sydney Olympic Games on Australia's economy
According to the statistics of Australian Tourist Committee, the total number of tourists induced by Sydney Olympic Games reached 2 million from 1997 to 2114, and Australia benefited nearly 11 billion dollars. According to the Australian Regional Economic Analysis Center, the Sydney Olympic Games brought huge economic benefits to Australia, directly bringing about 6.5 billion Australian dollars of economic activities, of which New South Wales, where Sydney is located, accounted for 5 billion Australian dollars. From 1993 to 2114, the state's economic benefits from the Olympic Games are expected to reach $3 billion. Australia from 1993 to 199