The Accounting Office of the Executive Yuan of Taiwan Province recently revised the forecast of Taiwan Province's GDP growth rate, and foreign brokerage institutions immediately responded and adjusted. Among them, JP Morgan Chase believes that although Taiwan Province's economy will start to strengthen in the second half of the year, due to the unsatisfactory performance in the first quarter, the GDP growth rate this year will be revised down from the original forecast of 4.3% to 3.8%. However, Morgan Stanely is optimistic, predicting that the recovery of domestic demand in Taiwan Province will slow down the impact of the decline in exports, and reiterating that Taiwan Province's economic growth rate can be maintained at more than 4% this year.

The Accounting Office lowered the GDP growth rate of Taiwan Province from 4.21% to 3.63% this year, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points. Enoch Fung, an Asia-Pacific economic analyst of Goldman Sachs, said that "the decline rate is really surprising", especially the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year was only 2.54%, which was significantly lower than the 3.25% in the fourth quarter of last year and lower than the original estimate.

in late February this year, when the accounting office lowered the GDP growth rate for the whole year to 4.21%, Goldman Sachs held a different view and optimistically revised the estimated GDP growth rate to 4.5%.

In this regard, Enoch Fung believes that Taiwan Province's export growth rate declined in the fourth quarter of last year, which is not surprising, because the slow global growth is the main reason, but the recovery of domestic demand continues to strengthen. "Taiwan Province's consumer market can become a force for economic growth this year, which is also an important reason for revising the economic growth rate.

However, since Goldman Sachs only raised Taiwan Province's economic growth rate in February, the latest economic research and analysis report of Taiwan Province released by Enoch Fung did not adjust the estimated GDP growth rate, but only indicated that it would be further evaluated.

the next day after the accounting office revised the economic growth rate, JPMorgan Chase Securities immediately revised the forecast of Taiwan Province's GDP growth rate to 3.8%. Grace Ng, chief economist of Taiwan Province in Asia Pacific, said that according to the data released by the Taiwan Province government, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 2.5%, which was lower than the forecast of 3.1% in JPMorgan Chase, and also exceeded the market expectation.

Wu Xianghong said that although there are signs that Taiwan Province's prosperity has bottomed out in the first quarter, the sharp decline in export growth rate has made it impossible to keep the economic growth rate above 4% this year.

Looking forward to Taiwan Province's future prosperity, Wu Xianghong holds a positive attitude. She thinks that Taiwan Province's economic performance has been considered as a good achievement under the global economic slowdown. Wu Xianghong said that it will be an important factor for Taiwan Province's economic recovery, because global economic activities and electronics industry are expected to improve in the second half of this year. In particular, Taiwan Province's exports in April showed good signals, especially in the export of science and technology industries; In the Taiwan Province market, personal investment has grown steadily, and many major investment plans have continued, and public sector investment is also in progress, which has contributed to the overall growth of Taiwan Province.

She said that in the personal consumption sector, the fundamentals remain favorable, especially the stable employment rate, which will lead to an increase in income and a historically low real interest rate, which will help the real estate market in Taiwan Province.

compared with JPMorgan Chase's GDP growth rate this year, Morgan Stanley maintained its unchanged position and reiterated that it is expected to reach the 4% level. Denise Yam, Morgan Stanley's economic analyst in Asia, said that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year fell to 2.5%, which is the new low since the SARS storm in the second quarter of 2113, and even lower than the 2.7% expected by Morgan.

Ren Yongxin said that the evidence of declining international demand can be seen from the export orders in the first quarter of 2115. The growth rate of export orders dropped from 27% in 2114 to 21% in the first quarter of 2115, including the growth rate of industrial production index. In addition, due to the expected slowdown in demand, tight inventory and reduced output, all these are negative effects of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2115.

Ren Yongxin said that although the new data of the Taiwan Province government showed that the growth rate of the export sector had dropped sharply than expected, Morgan Stanley saw the strength of the recovery of domestic demand in Taiwan Province, which would cushion the decline in export growth rate.

Ren Yongxin pointed out that although the overall demand in Taiwan Province was lower than 6.4% in 2114, it was also 3.1% in the first quarter of 2115, which could make up for the impact of shrinking exports. Therefore, the GDP growth rate in 2115 was maintained at 4%.

In addition, Citigroup's forecast of Taiwan Province's GDP growth rate has been revised down from the original 4.1% to 3.6%, which, like JPMorgan Chase's, has been adjusted to below 4% because of the poor economic figures in the first quarter of this year. It is understood that Citigroup has already completed the revision ahead of schedule after the latest economic growth forecast was released in the accounting office, and the forecast figures are exactly the same as those in the accounting office.

However, Zheng Zhenmao, chief economic analyst of Citibank in Taiwan Province, revealed that because Citigroup predicted the GDP growth rate of 3.6% this year, it did not include the latest substantive data released by the Accounting Office, and it will be evaluated and adjusted again in the near future.

Zheng Zhenmao believes that compared with the global economic growth rate, Taiwan Province's GDP growth rate this year is still quite stable if it is around 3.6%.

In addition, the most optimistic forecast of Taiwan Province's economic growth rate this year by foreign investors is 5% of Lehman Brothers. However, after the accounting office revised Taiwan Province's economic growth rate, Lehman Brothers' general economics research team has not made any evaluation and adjustment. As the forecast figure of Lehman Brothers is quite different from that of other foreign securities firms, it remains to be seen whether it will be adjusted below 5%.