Looking at the price trend of live pigs in the latest quarter, we can find that the price of live pigs has indeed shown an overall upward trend since June and July, and has been running at a high level for more than a month. Although it has fallen in a narrow range this month, it will pick up again soon. We discuss two issues. What prompted the pig price to rise again in June and July? What prompted the high operation in August and September?
In March, April and May of the first half of the year, the prices of live pigs and pork dropped continuously 14 weeks, and the price of pork also dropped from 30 yuan to the lowest in 24 yuan. One of the reasons for the decline in pork prices is that pork consumption itself is in the off-season after the Spring Festival. Another main reason is that pork consumption has fallen sharply due to the influence of COVID-19, such as students not starting school, construction sites not starting, and catering industry not opening.
Pork prices also fell to a minimum before and after the two sessions. However, the convening of the two sessions indicates a turning point in the national epidemic. Subsequent construction sites began to resume work, and the catering industry began to recover. Pork consumption began to pick up, prompting the price of live pigs to pick up. With the pork consumption basically returning to the level at the end of 20 19, the prices of live pigs and pork also continue to rise. In addition, many areas suffered from floods in July and August, which affected pig breeding to a certain extent, and pig transportation was also difficult, which led to an increase in pig prices, while the prices of pigs and pork also lived up to expectations and returned to the level at the end of last year.
Recently, pork prices have remained at a high level, and the narrow fluctuation is the result of the game between supply and demand of pigs. As soon as the pig price falls, it will go to property hoarding. Large-scale pig farms need to rely on profits to complete their own replenishment and expansion, and seize the plans of various markets. Free-range pig farms need to use this wave of market to accumulate more funds for themselves, so it is difficult for pig prices to fall, and slaughtering enterprises can only dig down a dime.
Slaughterhouse enterprises and consumers hope that pork prices will come down soon. Slaughterhouse enterprises can increase pork sales, and consumers can eat cheap pork. Therefore, if pork continues to be high, consumers will resist high-priced pork, while slaughterhouses will suppress the price of pork to control the price of pork, which is the main reason why the price of pork has not continued to rise, although China is still very short of pigs.
However, there are still some news about pork prices recently, the most explosive of which is President Tang Renshen's statement that pork prices will reach an inflection point in 2022, and may fall to the price of 4 or 5 yuan. As soon as this statement came out, pig stocks plummeted, and even some stocks directly fell. Whether this statement is true or not, at least it shows that the price of live pigs and pork will indeed enter the downward channel in the later period.