After the May Day holiday, it's time to forecast the product price once a month. According to the current market situation, the prices of six kinds of daily necessities will change obviously, four of which may increase in price and two are expected to decrease in price. What is the reason? Let's have a look.
1. Vegetable prices are expected to fall.
In detail, everyone has been eating high-priced dishes since the Spring Festival. According to the statistics of the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of 28 vegetables monitored nationwide is 5. 19 yuan/kg, which is close to 2.6 yuan/kg. This price is still relatively high.
However, industry insiders predict that vegetable prices will drop sharply in May.
1 and after May Day, many parts of the country entered the early summer season, the temperature rose obviously, the growth rate of vegetables accelerated, and the output increased.
2. The vegetables listed after May Day will be mainly open-air vegetables, and the planting cost will be greatly reduced.
3. An important reason for the high price of vegetables is the poor logistics and transportation. With the stability of the epidemic, traffic will resume and freight is expected to decrease.
It is understood that vegetable prices in some areas have dropped significantly, and there are more and more single and double dishes in various places. I believe that by May, the price of vegetables will be cheaper.
Second, fruit prices are expected to fall.
Like vegetables, people have been eating high-priced fruits since before the Spring Festival. According to experts' analysis, on the one hand, due to the international situation this year, the number of imported fruits in China has dropped significantly, on the other hand, domestic fruits have entered a green and yellow period, citrus has entered the end of the market, and the amount of frozen fruits is also declining, resulting in insufficient supply of fruits in the market.
In addition, poor transportation and high freight are also the main reasons for the high price of fruit.
Of course, the number of people working from home has increased recently, and the high consumption of fruit is also one of the reasons.
After entering May, some early-maturing fruit varieties will be listed one after another, such as cherry and litchi. When the fruits in the cold storage enter the final stage, the traders will speed up the shipment and make room for the follow-up fruits, which will increase the supply of fruits in the market. As the temperature rises, the demand for cold drinks increases, which seizes the fruit market to some extent and weakens the demand.
Under the influence of supply and demand, it is expected that the fruit price will be lowered in May.
Third, the price of flour will also be reduced.
In recent years, the price of flour has risen abnormally, and flour enterprises have continuously raised the purchase price of wheat. At this stage, the quotations of ordinary wheat in Shandong enterprises have risen to 1.63 and 1.64 yuan, and the quotations of ordinary wheat in Henan have risen to 1.6 1.65 yuan.
This sudden rise in wheat prices is a bit unexpected for grain farmers. Now everyone thinks that the new season of wheat will be listed soon, and the price of wheat will not rise sharply. I didn't expect it not only to rise, but also to rise sharply.
The author believes that there are several logics for wheat price increase:
1, the enthusiasm of flour dealers to get goods increased, and the orders of flour enterprises increased;
2. Many flour enterprises are still in the state of shutdown and maintenance, and the overall operating rate is low;
3. Flour enterprises have insufficient inventory and poor market access, so they can only raise prices and collect grain urgently;
4. Market hype;
International food prices soared, and some countries hoarded food to protect themselves, which affected the trend of wheat prices.
No matter what the reason for the price increase is, in May, China's new wheat season will be listed one after another, and the situation of tight domestic wheat supply will change. Moreover, with the stability of the epidemic and the recovery of transportation, the circulation of wheat in the market will increase, and the price reduction of old wheat will be consistent with that of new wheat.
Fourth, pork prices may rise.
The rise in pork prices has been reflected in these days. With the recent significant rebound in pig prices, pork prices have also increased slightly.
At present, the wholesale price of pork in China is 9.0 1 yuan, and the retail price is basically 10- 15 yuan.
Although the current pig production capacity is at a high level, I am afraid that pig prices and meat prices will rise in May.
May Day will drive people out, and there may be a wave of retaliatory consumption after the epidemic stabilizes, which will increase the demand for catering and pork.
With the price of pigs rising again, many pig farms have recently started to make up for it, and some pig farms have tried to fatten again, which means that although there is no shortage of pigs in the market, the number of pigs listed may not be ideal.
The official continuous purchasing and storage has also given a positive signal to the market, which is likely to change the mentality of pig farmers and push up the price of pigs.
I'm worried that the price of gasoline will go up.
Last week, gasoline prices just fell for the first time in 2022, but the new oil price cycle started badly. On the first day of the settlement date, the international oil price ushered in a sharp rise. The previous decline in international oil prices was mainly the result of the release of strategic oil reserves by the United States and other countries. On the surface, countries are trying to control oil prices, but in fact, they talk more and do less. The recent rebound in oil prices is the best proof.
Moreover, after the end of the epidemic, transportation has obviously recovered, and domestic demand for refined oil has risen, which may stimulate domestic gasoline prices to rise again.
6. The price of toilet paper will go up.
In fact, since last year, the prices of all kinds of paper have been rising, from toilet paper to corrugated paper to cultural paper and wrapping paper.
The main reason for the increase in paper prices is the increase in international prices of raw materials and packaging materials, which leads to the increase in production costs of enterprises and the need to raise prices after the decline in profits of enterprises.
According to statistics, the price of pulp, an important raw material for the production of household paper, rose from 4,970.4 yuan/ton to 61kloc-0/65,438+6,000 tons in the last year, and there is still no sign of price reduction, which means that the prices of toilet paper and cultural paper we use every day will further rise.