(1) international production situation

Soybean meal is essentially a by-product of processing, and its output is mainly affected by raw materials and main products. Because its raw material _ soybean output has always been the highest among all kinds of oil crops in the world, the soybean output of 1994, 95, 96 and 97 accounts for 54%, 48%, 52% and 54% of the total oil crop output in the world respectively, and has always occupied half of the total supply of oil crops in the world. Therefore, the output and consumption of soybean meal has always been the first of all kinds of protein powder.

Since 1990s, soybean production has increased year by year. Compared with 1998, the output of 199 1 increased by 52.46 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.25%. Among the four major soybean producing countries, China's output has stagnated, while Brazil, Argentina and the United States have reached record highs, among which Brazil's output ratio has more than doubled to 199 1. Other second-tier producers, such as India and Paraguay, have also made great progress in soybean production.

The output of soybean meal basically maintained the same growth rate as that of soybean, and the output ratio of 1998 199 1 increased by 27.65 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 5.72%. It can be said that in recent years, it is precisely because of the increase in soybean meal output that the global demand for protein powder has been sustained. In terms of output distribution, the major soybean producers are also major soybean meal producers, and the output of the United States, Brazil, Argentina and China accounts for more than 70% of the world's total output. In recent years, the output of soybean meal in India is also increasing year by year, becoming a new force that cannot be ignored.

(2) World consumption situation

In recent years, the consumption of soybean meal in the world has increased by leaps and bounds. 197 The world soybean meal consumption was 98.8 million tons, an increase of 7.5 million tons over the previous year, accounting for 63% of the world soybean meal consumption. The increase of soybean meal consumption in 1995, 1996 and 1997 reached 42%, 109% and 90% of the total increase of world protein powder consumption respectively.

The demand for soybean meal is very extensive. The European Union and the United States are the two largest soybean meal consumption markets in the world. The consumption of soybean meal in the EU is relatively stable, ranging from 22 million to 26 million tons. The United States is the largest producer and consumer of soybean meal in the world, with an annual consumption of 24-27 million tons. During the period of 1993- 1997, the consumption of soybean meal in East Asian countries, such as South Korea, China and Southeast Asian countries, increased rapidly, which stimulated global consumption. However, after the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, the consumption of soybean meal in East Asia immediately weakened and the demand was sluggish. Therefore, it can be said that the decisive factor leading the global soybean meal consumption is the demand of East Asian countries.

(iii) Overview of world trade

1. The world soybean meal trade volume is growing rapidly.

After 1980s, the world soybean meal trade developed rapidly. From 65438 to 0982, the global soybean meal import and export both exceeded the 20 million tons mark, becoming one of the bulk products in international agricultural trade. At present, the annual trade volume of soybean meal in the world remains above 30 million tons.

2. The world soybean meal trade is characterized by concentrated export.

Brazil and Argentina produce soybean meal mostly for export because of their small domestic consumption. Since Brazil replaced the United States as the world's largest exporter of soybean meal in the early 1970s, its annual export volume has increased steadily. Since 1994, its annual export volume has exceeded10,000,000 tons, accounting for13 of the world's total soybean meal exports. Since 1990s, the export volume of Argentine soybean meal has sprung up suddenly. The export volume of 1997 has exceeded 8 million tons, a record high, and now it ranks second in the world after Brazil. Although the annual output of soybean meal in the United States ranks first in the world, due to the large domestic consumption of soybean meal, the export volume only accounts for about 1/5 of its total output. In recent years, India has come from behind in the international soybean meal trade and become a new force in soybean meal export.

3. The world soybean meal trade is characterized by scattered imports.

Different from the relative concentration of exporting countries, soybean meal importing countries are scattered. The EU is the largest buyer of soybean meal in the international market. For a long time, the import volume has been around140,000 tons, and 1994 reached the record of170,000 tons, accounting for 59% of the total world imports in that year. In recent years, the import power of soybean meal has weakened, but it still remains above130,000 tons. Before the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, it was also a big importer of soybean meal in the world. After 1992, the import volume decreased year by year. 1997 Before the outbreak of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the soybean meal imports of Japan, South Korea and ASEAN countries maintained a strong growth momentum. After 1997, the soybean meal imports shrank, but the total amount was still large. China is traditionally an exporter of soybean meal. The situation changed on 1996. Due to the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market, the import volume has risen sharply, ranking second in the world with 1997.

Second, the domestic soybean meal market supply and demand situation

(1) Overview of domestic production

China is a big producer of soybean meal, ranking fourth in the world after the United States, Brazil and Argentina. The three northeastern provinces are the main soybean producing areas in China and the production base of soybean meal in China. Together with Shandong, Hebei and Henan, soybean meal production accounts for more than 90% of the country. Before 1993/ 1994, China's soybean meal output remained below 5 million tons. 1993/ 1994 domestic soybean meal output exceeded 5 million tons for the first time, reaching 6.385 million tons. After that, the domestic soybean meal output was impacted by imported soybean meal, but the output still increased steadily.

(b) Domestic soybean meal consumption

China soybean meal market is characterized by northern production and southern consumption. The three northeastern provinces are the main producers of soybean meal in China, and the Pearl River Delta and the southeast coastal areas are the main consumers of soybean meal. Soybean meal consumption is mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Chongqing, Beijing and Shanghai.

With the gradual improvement of people's living standards, the intake of meat, eggs, poultry and fish by urban and rural residents in China has greatly increased, which has promoted the rapid development of feed processing industry. The feed used by poultry and high-quality lean pigs has increased rapidly, which has stimulated the demand for high-quality protein feed. There are many kinds of cake products in China, and the output of rapeseed cake and cottonseed cake is also very large, but these two cakes can only be used as feed after detoxification. Therefore, the high-quality cakes currently used in China are mainly soybean meal.

Since the mid-1990s, the production and demand of soybean meal in China have changed significantly, and the domestic soybean meal production can no longer meet the consumer demand. Before 1994, China was a big exporter of soybean meal, and its annual export volume generally exceeded1100,000 tons. During the period of 1995, due to the decrease of soybean output, the available oil-pressed beans decreased. The domestic output is close to 6.86 million tons and the consumption is more than 6 million tons. Market supply and demand balance. During the period of 1996, the domestic soybean for oil extraction further decreased, but the imported soybean increased. The domestic soybean meal output recovered to 6.97 million tons, and the consumption exceeded100000 tons. Only a large number of imports can meet the strong domestic demand. 197 The national soybean meal output reached 7.8 million tons, and the consumption increased to nearly 1 1 10,000 tons. During the period of 1998, the output of soybean meal in China reached 8 million tons, and the consumption was about120,000 tons. During the period of 1999, the domestic meat price dropped, and the market demand of soybean meal declined, which is expected to be slightly lower than 1998.

The development trend of soybean meal market mainly depends on the following factors: first, soybean resources, second, domestic feed demand, third, soybean meal import and export, and fourth, fish meal import. In recent years, the import proportion of soybean meal and fish meal in China has changed significantly. Among them, the trade of soybean meal increased from 34% in 1995 to 80% in 1997. With the rapid development of aquaculture in China, soybean meal has become the main raw material of feed industry, and the production and consumption of soybean meal are directly affected by the prosperity of aquaculture.

(C) China soybean meal trade characteristics

1. Great changes from soybean meal exporting countries to importing countries

Before 1996, China's soybean meal output was greater than domestic consumption, and it was one of the major exporting countries in international trade. From 65438 to 0994, 50% of domestic soybean meal production was exported. Later, with the improvement of people's living standards and the expansion of aquaculture scale, the demand for soybean meal in domestic aquaculture industry has also increased significantly. The production cost of soybean meal in China is high, and the price of soybean meal in the international market is much lower than the domestic price. A lot of cheap soybean meal was imported to China.

During 1996, China changed from a net exporter to a net importer in international trade, with an import volume of1880,000 tons. During 1997, the import volume of soybean meal reached 3.47 million tons, accounting for about half of the domestic soybean meal production. 1998, the import of soybean and soybean meal reached a record 3190,000 tons and 3.73 million tons respectively. From the second half of 1999, China resumed the collection of value-added tax on imported soybean meal. Coupled with the sluggish domestic aquaculture industry, the import of soybean meal dropped sharply, with a total import of 570,000 tons, which was 84.6% lower than that of 1998.

2. Soybean meal imports are concentrated in southern ports.

Due to historical reasons, most large and medium-sized oil plants in China are located in the north, so soybean imports are mostly at the northern port, while the main consumption area of soybean meal is in the south, and the import destination is mostly at the southern port. From 65438 to 0998, the number of soybeans imported from ports north of the Yangtze River accounted for more than 80% of the national soybean imports (see Table 4-3). Soybean meal imports mainly come from southern ports, and the main import ports are Shanghai, Guangzhou Huangpu, Shenzhen, Nanjing and Nanning. Imports from southern ports accounted for 87% of the total imports from 65438 to 0998.

3. Imported soybean meal mainly comes from America, Brazil, Argentina and India.

According to the distribution of importing countries, the source countries of soybean meal imported from China are Brazil, India, the United States and Argentina.

4. The monthly import of soybean meal is relatively balanced.

5. Quality comparison between imported soybean meal and domestic soybean meal.

Because foreign soybeans are produced on a mechanized scale, the quality is more stable and uniform than that of domestic soybeans planted by farmers. At the same time, foreign oil processing enterprises have large scale, advanced technical equipment and processing technology, and the processed soybean meal has high protein content (44%-48%) and stable quality. However, it takes about two months for imported soybean meal to be used by domestic manufacturers after transportation, arrival in Hong Kong, packaging and other links, resulting in insufficient freshness. However, there is no clear basis for distinguishing imported soybean meal from domestic soybean meal from sensory traits and chemical indexes.

(D) Analysis and forecast of comprehensive balance of domestic soybean meal

Since China imposed value-added tax on imported soybean meal, the quantity of imported soybean meal has dropped sharply, and the domestic soybean meal supply capacity is under obvious pressure. 1999/2000, China's soybean meal output is expected to reach 921.8000 tons, an increase of1.7700 tons over the previous year. During this period, the import of soybean meal is expected to be around 600,000 tons, and the annual supply of soybean meal is 9810.8 million tons. The consumption of soybean meal this year is expected to be 105 1 10,000 tons, with an annual balance of-692,000 tons. In 2000/200 1 year, the annual supply of soybean meal is expected to increase to 10723 million tons. During this period, feed and animal husbandry may turn around, which will obviously increase the consumption of soybean meal. It is estimated that the annual consumption will reach 1 15 10000 tons. In this way, the balance this year will be-787,000 tons.