Text/Autobots Scroll
In September 2020, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 6.5438+0.36 million, up 63% year-on-year, and reached a record high in that month. The feast of commercial vehicles in the real economy continued. At the same time, the funds in the securities market fled in the field of commercial vehicles. Recently, China National Heavy Duty Truck H-share K-line chart showed 8 consecutive negative, faw liberation 10. Why does the entity deviate from the virtual economy?
This round of commercial vehicle sales growth cycle started from 2065438+September 2006 and has lasted for four years. With the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in the first and second quarters, in order to hedge the economic downturn, various provinces have planned to launch a number of high-investment infrastructure projects, which undoubtedly further stimulated the commercial vehicle market. It is worth noting that since the third quarter, the growth rate of China's infrastructure began to decline month by month, which is farther and farther away from people's expectations at the beginning of the year.
Since April, 2020, the China heavy truck market has set a new monthly sales record for six consecutive months. In June, the cumulative sales volume from 5438+0 to September has exceeded the sales volume of last year, reaching 1.22 million vehicles. The accelerated elimination of vehicles in third countries is the main driving force for sales exceeding expectations. Some organizations predict that the sales volume of heavy trucks in China will reach a new high this year, reaching 654.38+0.5 million. Among them, the sales volume of heavy trucks in the third quarter was 405,000 vehicles, up 74% year-on-year, higher than the increase of 63% in the second quarter.
In the securities market, especially in the third quarter, the positive correlation between the infrastructure sector and the commercial vehicle sector has become more and more obvious. From September 2 1 to September 29, China National Heavy Duty Truck A shares showed 8 consecutive negative signs, and weekly K lines showed 3 consecutive negative signs. This is not a case. Faw liberation, the leader of commercial vehicles, rarely appeared 10 in recent trading days, and the weekly K-line also surprisingly reached 5 consecutive yin; Weichai Power A shares are relatively good, but there is a double-headed trend.
Their H shares in Hong Kong also encountered a similar situation. From August 7 to September 25, China Heavy Duty Truck H-share weekly K-line appeared 8 consecutive yin; Weichai Power H shares also show a similar double-headed top shape.
It can be seen that commercial vehicle stocks have already had the characteristics of stage top after several years of cumulative rise in the capital market.
In fact, in recent years, passenger car listed companies have gained gratifying results, while commercial vehicles have gone out of the opposite form. At the same time, infrastructure listed companies also showed a significant decline after peaking in mid-August. The investment promotion infrastructure plate showed 8 consecutive yin from September 2/kloc-0 to September 30.
It is undeniable that at the beginning of the outbreak, the market had great expectations for infrastructure investment. The media always attracts attention with headlines of 30 trillion to 50 trillion. From this point of view, it should be taken for granted that the infrastructure growth rate will reach double digits in the second half of the year. However, the actual situation is that the growth rate of full-caliber infrastructure only reached 10.9% in May this year, and it showed a downward trend in June and July. In particular, the growth rate of 7% in August disappointed many investors. The year-on-year growth rate of construction steel turnover decreased from 16% in August to 3% in September.
The reason is that the general public budget of local governments is gradually tightening. Affected by the epidemic, many local governments are short of money and have no excellent investment projects, which directly leads to the lower-than-expected growth rate of infrastructure.
In fact, since August, funds betting on high-growth infrastructure have been withdrawn, and commercial vehicles are of course one of their evacuation positions. In September, the situation was still not optimistic, and the return of funds was further accelerated. If the growth rate of infrastructure in June 5438+ 10 is not ideal, many investors will give up completely.
We can see that the A-share construction sector began to decline after peaking in August 19, and further accelerated its decline in late September, which is exactly the same as the trend of commercial vehicle leading stocks.
Another unusual event is the Evergrande incident. Xu Jiayin has always dared to increase leverage to take land during the period of purchase restriction and when the market is not good, and made a big profit from it a few years later. But this time, the attitude of the regulatory authorities seems different from the past. In particular, recently, regulators have asked large commercial banks to reduce the proportion of housing mortgage loans in assets, and combined with the previous "three red lines" for real estate, many investors feel that it is not what it used to be.
It took less than three months for China Evergrande, a Hong Kong stock, to drop from a high of HK$ 27.29 on July 6 to an intraday high of HK$ 13.00 on September 25. Although it has rebounded to HK$ 20, it is still difficult to be optimistic.
There are many indications that since the third quarter, the growth rate of China's infrastructure has fallen behind expectations, and there is a further downward trend. The attitude of the regulatory authorities towards real estate is still tough, which leads to the withdrawal of funds from infrastructure and commercial vehicles. The commercial vehicle market, in particular, has gone through a bull market for four years, and it is hard to say how long it can last. (Text/"Autobots" scrolling, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of Autobots, and the copyright belongs to Autobots.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.