All weather forecasts are similar, but they all have certain accuracy. Any forecasting model can't completely and truly simulate the evolution of the atmosphere, it can only be approximate, so there must be errors. Moreover, the error will accumulate, and the longer the prediction time, the greater the error.

The forecast of 8- 15 days is objectively revised, but it has not been subjectively revised by forecasters, so there is some uncertainty. 15-day weather forecast is a weather forecast service provided by meteorological departments to the public based on existing meteorological data and scientific computer models.

Calculation method

The calculation method of forecast accuracy is to compare the forecast results with the actual results according to the actual weather conditions, and get the percentage of accuracy. For example, there are 13 days in the forecast of 15 days, and the accuracy rate is 86.7%. According to the statistics of meteorological department, the accuracy of weather forecast on 15 days is about 70%.

In other words, the weather conditions in the forecast for three days are inconsistent with the actual situation. However, it should be noted that the accuracy will vary due to factors such as region and season. Meteorological forecast is a complicated work, and its accuracy is affected by many factors. The most important factor is the accuracy of meteorological equipment. If the meteorological equipment is not accurate enough, the collected meteorological data will have errors.

Reference to the above content: Baidu Encyclopedia One Chengdu