Gold Nine and Silver Ten are powerful, and automobiles have become one of the industries that will recover best after the epidemic eases. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that as of October, production and sales have maintained growth for seven consecutive months, with growth rates exceeding 10% for six consecutive months. The cumulative decline in sales this year has narrowed to less than 5%.
Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center, said this month that the recovery of the auto market has surpassed the recovery of the economy. He predicted that passenger car sales this year will fall by 6%-7% year-on-year, and overall sales will be close to last year. As for the reasons for the market recovery, some experts commented that first, the epidemic has changed residents’ travel patterns to some extent; second, policies have promoted consumers’ enthusiasm for car purchases.
Monthly automobile sales data in the past three years (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)
Not only are consumers enthusiastic, car companies are also active. The stimulus from the capital market on the other side of the ocean may be an important reason. Although the U.S. election is in full swing in November, what “car people” are really concerned about is the sharp rise in automotive concept stocks. As of November 27, Tesla's market value reached US$555.2 billion, making it the sixth largest company in the United States by market value, surpassing Toyota and Volkswagen combined. Nio, which was on the verge of bankruptcy a year ago, has become the second-highest market value Chinese car company after BYD. The stocks of Xpeng and Ideal have also been growing rapidly. From January to October, the cumulative sales of the three major Chinese automotive concept companies in the US stock market were less than 70,000 units, accounting for about 8.3% of new energy vehicle sales. Why are they so optimistic about the capital market?
On November 23, at the "Internet Automobile Wuzhen Night Talk" hosted by Global Automotive Media, dozens of guests discussed this issue. Experts attending the meeting believed that after cars become intelligent, the profit points of car manufacturers have also changed, and software and services can be included in valuations. In other words, the logic of evaluating the stock value of new power car companies has changed. In other words, traditional car companies cannot look at future development only from the traditional "sales volume theory" perspective.
From 2015 to 2017, there was an "Internet car-making" craze in China. A large number of "new forces" were born and capital was enthusiastically pursuing them. At this stage, there are not only the feathers brought about by "PPT car manufacturing", but also the foundation for today's new energy vehicle market structure. Now, the second wave of car-making boom seems to have arrived, and the information in November is particularly concentrated. From the perspective of the decision-making cycle, this wave of car-making boom has no direct relationship with the current market recovery in the post-epidemic era. But the two things combined really heated up the overall auto market.
Compared with 5 years ago, the main body and logic of this car-making boom have changed, which also reflects the continuous expansion of the automobile industry's extension and understanding in the past few years when it has been impacted by Internet thinking. Keep deepening. At the "Internet Automobile Wuzhen Night Talk", Ding Lei, founder, chairman and CEO of Chinese Express, said that regardless of traditional forces or new forces, everyone is actually "building new cars." This so-called new car is an Internet car, and it is not just reflected at the product level. Li Wei, executive vice president of Changan Automobile, hit the nail on the head when he said: “The true definition of a car is still driven by user needs, and the biggest feature of this round of changes is that it has shifted from focusing only on the delivery of new vehicles to providing users with Cycle of service”.
Human Horizon founder, chairman and CEO Ding Lei participated in the "Internet Automobile Wuzhen Night Talk"
In the recent car-making boom, the most popular ones are undoubtedly the actions of large state-owned enterprises . BAIC's ARCFOX first product αT was launched at the end of October; Dongfeng's new brand Lantu's first mass-produced vehicle will debut in December. Also releasing big news this month is SAIC. On November 25, SAIC Motor’s “L Project” to build high-end electric vehicles was finally revealed. It was jointly built by SAIC, Pudong New Area and Alibaba Group and settled in Pudong Zhangjiang Park. It is reported that SAIC holds 54% of the project, Pudong Investment holds 18%, Alibaba holds 18%, employees and users hold 10%, and the founding round of financing is 10 billion yuan. The new car will be released early next year.
"Zhiji Automobile" project released
Why do these large state-owned enterprise groups focus on promoting high-end electric vehicles? On the one hand, these companies have realized the direction of future industry transformation and need to focus on the fields of new energy and intelligent networking, launch high-end products, and explore the road to brand improvement in new forms; at the same time, they have also realized that existing brands , has formed an inherent social cognition. For the "new species" of "new cars", consumers cannot have positive and positive associations, so they can only start from scratch. This is not only a refresh of the brand image, but also hopes to use the advantages of production and research and development to improve mechanisms and models. Start from scratch. Traditional brands and new brands develop on different paths. Take SAIC's independent route as an example. On the basis of Roewe and MG, the R brand was born. SAIC calls it the "national team of new forces". This statement vividly explains the image that traditional companies hope to create.
In addition to the big moves by state-owned enterprises, the customized online ride-hailing D1 jointly developed by Didi and BYD also has considerable industry significance. This model released on November 16 can be regarded as Didi’s car-making in disguise. This car not only fully considers the needs of passengers in terms of space and comfort, but also has many targeted designs in terms of driver safety and convenience in taking orders.
Judging from the future development trend of automobiles, "tool vehicles" for specific scenarios must be an important demand and have a very broad space for development. The cooperation between BYD and Didi is undoubtedly a landmark exploration in this field. But from a deeper perspective, Didi is heavily involved in the definition of new cars. Who will take the initiative when it comes to user data, which will be crucial in the future? Is this the beginning of operating companies dominating the automotive industry? As a result, Didi has further embarked on the road of no return toward heavy assets. It can be said that the product D1 is an important example of ecological changes in the automotive industry in 5-10 years.
The online ride-hailing D1 jointly developed by Didi and BYD
In addition to Didi, whether Huawei builds cars has always been a hot topic. When commenting on ARCFOX, Wu Yingqiu, chairman and CEO of Huanqiu Auto Group, once mentioned that if this car was made by Huawei, it would definitely sell well quickly. That is to say, for "new species", Huawei's image is more closely associated with it. Recently, Huawei has increasingly become a guest of car companies. In addition to ARCFOX, on November 14, Changan Automobile released a series of important strategic information on brands, technologies, and products, including that it will join hands with Huawei and CATL jointly creates a new high-end smart car brand.
Not long ago, Wang Jun, President of Huawei’s smart car solutions BU, said that the “HI” logo of smart car solutions will be put on the car. This also shows that Huawei’s previous determination not to build cars and to be an incremental supplier has undergone subtle changes. On the other hand, an internal Huawei material was circulated online, including Ren Zhengfei's instructions: "Whoever makes plans to build cars in the future and interferes with the company can be transferred from their position and find another position." It can be understood that Huawei's "not building cars" is just not building cars in the traditional sense. However, Huawei's deep penetration into the entire industry chain, its R&D and manufacturing capabilities in key intelligent network components, and its in-depth cooperation with car companies through the capital level have fully exposed Huawei's deep involvement and control of the automotive industry. Ambition. The more Huawei states that it will not build cars, the greater the pressure will be on car manufacturers.
Although business formats are constantly changing, the industry has a clear understanding of how many brands the entire market can accommodate. The new round of car-making boom, although there are new changes in business logic, will inevitably form a new bubble. Whether the final result is a "leap forward" or a "leap forward" will probably be controversial again.
In addition to the vitality of "building new cars", there are also frustrated people who bid farewell to the stage of history. On November 20, the Shenyang Intermediate People's Court ruled to accept the creditor's application for reorganization of Brilliance Group, marking the official entry of Brilliance into bankruptcy and reorganization procedures. Brilliance Group stated that the reorganization only involves the group’s own brand segment, and does not involve the group’s listed companies and joint ventures with BMW, Renault, etc. On the 30th, the media revealed that Brilliance Renault will conduct its second layoff this year, which may involve 1,200 people. Today, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced on its official website that it has taken administrative supervision measures by issuing warning letters to Brilliance Group and related intermediaries, and decided to investigate them for alleged violations of information disclosure laws and regulations. Brilliance owns four listed companies: Shenhua Holdings, Jinbei Motors, Brilliance China and Xinchen Dynamics. It owns three independent brands, Zhonghua, Jinbei and Huasong, and two joint venture brands, BMW Brilliance and Brilliance Renault. It has fallen to this point. This is a strategic mistake made by policymakers and has also sounded the alarm for other state-owned enterprises.
On November 13, Dongfeng Yulon also applied to enter bankruptcy liquidation procedures. Of course, this ending is not surprising. In addition to major environmental factors, ultra-high fuel consumption has already exposed the flaws in product strength. Survival of the fittest is inevitable, and it will become the norm in the automobile industry to see only the smiles of new people and the tears of old people.
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This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao , does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.