In this year-end period, the "low peak season" of terminal consumption has broken the hearts of the majority of pig farmers.
In the short term, although consumption is slowly recovering, it has limited boosting effect on pig prices.
Why is the price of live pigs depressed recently?
Among many festivals in China, the Spring Festival is the most important one. At this time, travelers from other places go home with their luggage for the New Year. The whole family has a happy New Year's Eve dinner, and pork is indispensable at the dinner table. Therefore, it is also the peak of pork consumption before the Spring Festival every year, but this year is the opposite.
At present, the Spring Festival is less than two weeks away, but the consumption is still "bleak", and there is no pork hoarding boom in previous years, which is mainly related to three factors:
First, inner weakness.
Since the "mask problem" was opened, the infection peak of "Little Sheep Man" has been ushered in all parts of the country. Many ordinary people are so miserable that they can't get up in bed, and it is quite difficult to think of a door, let alone go shopping and eat in the business circle, which makes the already "depressed" catering industry and hotel lobby worse, and only the food delivery staff are busy all day.
Second, the pockets are empty.
In the past three years, the epidemic has had a great impact on enterprises all over the country, with layoffs and pay cuts. The annual income of many families has fallen sharply, the price of pork remains high, and the purchase of pork has plummeted.
Third, market sentiment fluctuates.
As we all know, pig prices rose and fell in 2022, and remained at a low point in the first quarter. However, due to the tight supply of live pigs in the market, the pig price rebounded in June and soared to 10, setting a new high in the year. But this increase is not due to consumption, but to market sentiment, so in the expectation of pig farmers, pig prices began to plummet, not only in the peak season, but even in the south.
Moreover, there is no shortage of standard pigs. At present, the number of pigs available for slaughter is the number of sows that can be bred from June to July, but it is normal 105%. In addition, the living environment and temperature are good, and the survival rate of piglets is high. It is worth mentioning that the harm of flying this year is weaker than in previous years, the standard pigs are saturated, and imported meat and reserve meat are superimposed. At present, the supply pressure in the live pig market has doubled, and the demand for supply is strong.
In June 5438+February, the income of pig enterprises generally shrank!
According to the monitoring data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of live pigs in late June of 65438+February was 16.8 yuan/kg, which was 7.7% lower than that in mid-February of 65438+.
The "bleak" trend of pig prices can also be reflected in the sales data of major listed pig enterprises. According to the sales briefing of Mu Yuan in June 5438+February, the average selling price of commercial pigs in this month was 18.6 1 yuan/kg, which was 20.23% lower than that in June 1 1.
The sharp drop in the average selling price affected the sales revenue. In June, 2022, the sales volume of live pigs in Mu Yuan reached 6.027 million, a record high in the year, with a month-on-month increase of over 65.438+065.438+05%, while the sales revenue still decreased by 65.438+065.438+0.23% year-on-year.
In addition, the income of many leading pig enterprises such as Wen's and New Hope generally declined, while Zhengbang was just the opposite, up 29.86% from the previous month!
Listed pig enterprises sell pig farms in bulk.
The low price of pigs not only makes retail investors cry, but also makes large-scale farm enterprises worry. In order to cope with the market in 2023, major listed pig enterprises have accelerated their layout.
Recently, New Hope announced that the company intends to transfer the 1 1 pig farm under construction held by Liuhe Bio, a wholly-owned subsidiary, to Xingxin Agriculture and Animal Husbandry! It is worth mentioning that Xingxin Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is a joint venture company jointly funded by New Hope and Tianfu Rural Development Group. This means of buying and selling will directly make its profits exceed 100 million!
At the same time, several other leading pig enterprises are not idle. For example, Tianbang divested its vaccine and feed business in 202 1 and sold some breeding pig business in June 2022; Wen transferred five aquaculture projects in Qujing, Yunnan and Chongzuo, Guangxi to Shennong Group.
Not to mention Zhengbang Technology, which sells pig farms to save itself. Since last year, the company has transferred its dozens of pig farms and feed mills to two groups located in the same province.
In fact, when the group pig farms that are not short of money start to sell pig farms, it is enough to show that the current pig raising mode has changed, and the era of making huge profits by blind expansion has become a thing of the past, and Zhengbang is a typical example.
In the future, raising pigs will focus on cost and management methods. With the large-scale development of pig farms, the pig industry will surely enter the era of small profits but quick turnover.
Whether large-scale farms and small and medium-sized retail investors can survive in the pig industry in the future depends on whose cost is lower!