Wen, Zuo Maoxuan, Song Doudou
Recently, the new car-making forces released the monthly sales data of1/kloc-0. Weilai Automobile, Xpeng Automobile and Li continued to set new monthly sales records, and the "Three Musketeers", the new force of China Stock Exchange, continued to be in the first camp.
However, after the release of the sales data of 65438+February 1, the share prices of Weilai Automobile and Xpeng Automobile both fell by more than 10%. By the close of 65438+February 1 EDT, Weilai's share price had fallen by 10.23% to $45.36 per share, and its market value had fallen to $61/0/900,000, which failed to maintain its position as the first automobile company in China. The share price of Xpeng Motors also dropped from a high of $74 to $52.36, with a market value of $38.47 billion. On the same day, Li's share price fell by 3. 14% to $34.86. Overnight, the market value of the three car companies evaporated by more than 654.38+02 billion US dollars (about 80 billion yuan).
On February 2nd, 65438+, Weilai, Tucki and Ideality opened lower and then plunged. After only 10 minutes, the share prices of the three car companies all fell by more than 10%. But go low and go high. At the close of the day, Weilai rose 5.78% to $47.98 per share, Xpeng Motors rose 6.95% to $56, and Li Wei fell 0.32% to $34.75.
The higher-than-expected sales performance does not seem to have brought enough stimulus to the stock prices of the three new forces. In fact, after running all the way, the share price of "Three Musketeers", a new car-making army with a total market value exceeding 1 trillion, began to fall at the end of 1 1. 165438+1In the five trading days since October 24th, the share prices of Weilai, Tucki and Ideality fell by 16. 12%, 24.82% and 27. 15% respectively, and their market values evaporated by nearly 2000. The carnival is gone, but the bubble is still there.
Sales continued to rise.
65438+February, 1, according to the data released by Weilai Automobile,165438+1October, Weilai Automobile delivered 529 1 car, and continued to be the first new force in automobile manufacturing. This is also the second time that Weilaiji 10 has exceeded 5,000 vehicles. Among them, Weilai ES6 sold 2,386 vehicles, Weilai EC6 sold 15 18 vehicles and Weilai ES8 sold 1387 vehicles.
Before this year 1 1 month, the cumulative delivery volume of Weilai reached 3672 1 vehicle. Judging from the current trend, Weilai's annual sales this year will exceed 40,000 vehicles.
According to the data released by Xpeng Automobile, the delivery volume of Xpeng Automobile in June 5438+065438+ 10 was 4,224 vehicles, up 342% year-on-year; Before 1 1 month, Xpeng Motors delivered 2 134 1 set, up 87% year-on-year.
From the breakdown of vehicle types, in June, 5438+0 1, Tucki P7 delivered 2,732 vehicles, up 30% from last month. Since the delivery began at the end of June this year, Tucki P7 has delivered 1 137 1 vehicle. 165438+ 10 month, the monthly shipment of Tucki G3 was 1492, which was the best performance of Tucki G3 this year.
For Li, 4,646 Li ONE vehicles were delivered in June165438+1October, an increase of 25.8% from the previous month. The cumulative delivery volume of the previous 1 1 month was 26,498 vehicles. Since Li ONE is the only model currently on sale in Li, according to the data, Li ONE is expected to become the single model with the highest delivery of new car-making forces this year.
In terms of channels, as of165438+1October 30th, Li has 45 retail centers covering 38 cities. It has 97 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized car body painting centers, covering 72 cities across the country.
The market performance of several new forces in the second echelon 1 1 is also good. Among them, the sales volume of Weimar Automobile 1 18 in August was 30 18, up 174.6% year-on-year. Before 1 1, the cumulative sales volume of Weimar EX5 was nearly 20,000 vehicles. Nezha Auto 10 sold 2 1 122 vehicles in October, up 92% year-on-year. In the previous month 165438+ 10, the cumulative sales volume was 13424 units, a year-on-year increase of 44%. 1October 1 1 A total of 2032 new cars were sold, up 17% from the previous month. Among them, the retail sales volume of T03 is 65,438+0,927 vehicles, and the cumulative sales volume since listing is 7,285 vehicles.
On the whole, with the scale growth of China's new energy automobile market and the improvement of brand and channel layout of new energy automobile enterprises, most new energy automobile production enterprises that mass-produce and sell new cars have achieved good growth this year, especially in the second half of this year, and their market position is gradually stabilizing.
Why does the capital market prefer it?
In the magical month of 1 1, Tesla, Weilai, Ideality and Tucki staged one carnival after another.
The stock price soared and the market value ran wild, which shows that the capital market favored the concept stocks of new energy vehicles. The reason is closely related to the deepening and irreversibility of the trend of electrification and intelligence of automobiles. On the one hand, a series of new energy policies at home and abroad are favorable; On the other hand, Weilai, Tucki and the ideal third quarterly report "hold your head high" boosted investors' confidence to some extent.
At present, more than 12 countries and 25 regions around the world have announced or formulated timetables for prohibiting the sale of fuel-powered vehicles, among which Europe is the most obvious. Previously, Wan Gang, vice chairman of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, chairman of China Association for Science and Technology and chairman of the World New Energy Vehicle Conference, pointed out at the 2020 World New Energy Vehicle Conference that, first of all, strict carbon emission regulations in Europe forced enterprises to transform. If car companies failed to meet the standards, each car was fined 95 euros per gram; Secondly, many European countries took the lead in increasing the amount and scope of subsidies for new energy vehicles in the process of economic recovery.
With the approach of carbon emission requirements, the pace of electrification in Europe is further accelerated. 1 18 10 18, British prime minister Boris Johnson issued a document saying that Britain will stop selling new gasoline and diesel cars and trucks in 2030, and will allow the sale of hybrid cars and trucks. This is five years ahead of the 2035 promised in February. Earlier in February this year, Johnson announced that the current ban on the sale of new gasoline or diesel vehicles will be advanced from 2040 to 2035, when plug-in hybrid vehicles will also be banned.
In addition, Biden's election as "the biggest car fan among presidential candidates in history" has also added a fire to the pursuit of new energy car companies by US stocks. Biden's package includes infrastructure construction, additional car subsidies, government planned procurement and tax incentives.
China has also issued a number of favorable policies. 165438+1October 2, the new energy automobile industry development plan (202 1-2035) was officially released, clearly stating that the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 20% in 2025, and pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream in 2035. 165438+1October 18 the State Council executive meeting made arrangements to boost bulk consumption, focus on consumption, and promote the release of rural consumption potential, which pointed out that automobile consumption should be stabilized and expanded. In addition, local governments such as Hubei, Haikou and Hefei have also introduced policies to stimulate automobile consumption.
Policy trends have made new energy car companies once the scent of capital chasing, and they have been in the limelight for a while.
Why does the myth of market value continue?
In June 165438+ 10, the three brothers of American stocks released three quarterly reports one after another, and their sales increased greatly, their gross profit turned positive, their revenues increased greatly year-on-year, and their share prices soared.
Gross profit margin has always been regarded as an important indicator to judge whether the new forces of making cars have hematopoietic capacity. 2020? In the third quarter of 2008, Tucki's gross profit margin turned from negative to 4.6% for the first time, and all three brothers turned positive. Weilai's gross profit margin has been positive for two consecutive quarters, with14.5% in the third quarter; Li's gross profit margin reached 19.8%, second only to Tesla.
It is undeniable that the gross profit margin of the three car companies turned positive due to their delivery scale. The data shows that the deliveries of Weilai, Tucki and Ideality increased significantly in the third quarter, which were 1.22 million, 8,578 and 8,660 respectively. Among them, Weilai has achieved sales of over 10,000 for two consecutive quarters.
It is worth mentioning that on October 23rd 10, US Eastern Time, the new car-making force "Three Musketeers" 165438 all rose more than 10% that day, and the stock price reached a record high. Overnight, the market value of the three companies increased by more than $26 billion. Among them, Weilai's market value reached 75.44 billion US dollars (about 494.73 billion yuan), surpassing Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes-Benz, and ranked fifth in the market value of global car companies. The market value of Xpeng Motors also broke through the $50 billion mark for the first time, reaching $510.97 billion (about 3.410.03 billion RMB), surpassing Honda and ranking among the top ten global car companies in terms of market value. Ideally, with a market value of US$ 36.5 billion (about RMB 239.52 billion), Ford ranks 14 in the market value ranking of global car companies and fifth in China. At that time, the total market value of the three new car-making forces exceeded one trillion yuan.
Maybe this is not the highest point. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about several new car-making forces in China, and recently raised the target prices of Weilai and Ideality. Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Weilai Automobile from sell to neutral, and the target price was significantly raised from $7.7 to $59. Goldman Sachs said it underestimated Weilai's role in promoting breakthroughs in power systems, BaaS battery leasing services and regulatory incentives. In addition, Goldman Sachs raised Li's target share price from $20 to $60, and maintained its "buy" rating.
However, inside and outside the industry, the "myth" of the market value of China's new car-making forces has been controversial.
Why did electric car stocks skyrocket? Zhang Ying, a partner of Jingwei Venture Capital, said in an article that he was very surprised that the stock price rose in such a short time. If we insist on finding the reason, it may be related to the sudden recognition of the long-term potential of electric vehicles by the market, the promotion of electric vehicles instead of fuel vehicles in China and Europe, the strong support of new energy sources by the next US President Biden, and the fact that the China Stock Exchange is increasingly becoming an external "scientific and technological innovation board".
In addition, some people in the investment community believe that the high valuation of the new car-making forces is because their positioning is not a simple car company, but a strong technological attribute like Tesla.
"This year's low interest rate era has forced investors to chase limited high-quality targets, making crowded transactions more crowded, and the market's judgment on the company's value is very exaggerated." Zhang Ying issued a document saying, "It may take six years for a company to establish a complete business cycle, when profits begin to be released and customer value becomes thicker. But now the judgment of the whole market is more advanced, and the market may act early. By the time the company developed to the third year, it had reached the expected valuation level of the sixth year. "
"The share prices of Weilai, Tucki and Ideal soared collectively, and the market value reached a new high again. This cannot be said to be related to the strong innovation of Internet genes, product technologies and business models of all three companies. " 165438+1On October 26th, Chen Qingtai, Chairman of China Electric Vehicle 100 Committee, said, "This reflects the recognition of new energy vehicles in the capital market, and also shows that the automobile industry has entered a period of great change, and the market position of automobile enterprises is being reshuffled, providing opportunities for latecomers."
Wu, chief analyst of Guotai Junan Automobile, pointed out that the high valuation of the new force of making cars comes from the certainty of the creation and growth of new profit models. From the perspective of profit model, traditional car companies are manufacturing enterprises, and the source of profit is sales volume * net profit of bicycles, while the new force of making cars is gradually changing the profit model of the automobile industry, expanding bicycle profit through software and travel, and the profit target is expected to extend from the incremental market to the stock market; From the perspective of growth certainty, the substitution of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles has become an industry consensus. For the new car-making forces without historical burdens and internal constraints, it is expected to continue to benefit from the new energy wave in the future.
After the stock price falls, can the "myth" of the new force of making cars continue?
There are two completely different attitudes in the market. One view is that China's new energy vehicle market has broad prospects, and the three head enterprises have good future development prospects. Another view is that the current actual situation of the new car-making forces does not match the high market value, and the future business prospects are also facing challenges to varying degrees.
Of course, for any automobile enterprise, sales volume is an important criterion for inspection. Tesla's share price soared, model? Selling well all over the world is one of the key driving forces. How high can the market value of China's new car-making forces reach? The market trend of new energy vehicles in China and their respective capacity for scale growth will be particularly important.
Behind the blindfolded rush
Established only five or six years ago, the domestic new car-making enterprises have reached an unprecedented new height in market value, which is beyond people's imagination. As an industry with extremely high threshold, huge investment and high requirements for capital and industrial chain, the immature new force of making cars has been warmly favored by the capital market, which is both surprising and frightening. Is the valuation of the three car companies nearly one trillion reasonable? How many false high bubbles are hidden behind the blindfolded rush?
According to the annual sales of 654.38+10,000 vehicles to survive, the sales of the three brothers are only a fraction of those of traditional car companies, and their self-hematopoietic capacity is insufficient, and there is still a long way to go.
In terms of profit, Weilai, Ideality and Tucki are still at a loss, despite the ambitious third-quarter earnings report. In the third quarter, the net losses of the three companies were 65.438+0.47 billion yuan, 65.438+0./kloc-0.48 billion yuan and 65.438+0.07 billion yuan, respectively, which was far from profit. BYD, which also focuses on new energy vehicles, made a profit of 4451900 million yuan in the third quarter, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 65.438+075 billion yuan, up 6.5438+0362.66% year-on-year.
"There must be a bubble in the capital market because its price and value deviate. The question is whether it can eliminate the bubble through its own business promotion. " Some insiders pointed out in an interview with think tank Jun.
Wu Baojun, co-founder and president of Zero Run Auto, also said in an interview with think tank Jun that capital itself is a bubble and an amplifier. At present, the enthusiasm of the capital market for new cars is a prelude to the blowout of the new energy vehicle market, and eventually the truly powerful industries will stay. "According to the current development direction of electric vehicles, if car companies want to survive, their monthly sales must reach at least 1 000."
On the one hand, the stock price of the new forces is soaring, and on the other hand, the bosses are choking each other from a distance.
During the Guangzhou Auto Show, Xpeng announced that in 20021year, it will be the first to launch the world's first mass-produced smart car equipped with lidar. However, this move has aroused doubts, and even caused He and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who are far away from the other side of the ocean, to pull the public's attention back to their grievances and accusations of technological plagiarism.
Musk accused, "They (Xpeng Motors) have our old software, but they don't have our latest neural network computer." Later, he added, "This is only a problem with Xpeng Motors, and other China companies have not done so." Soon after, He Xiaopeng posted in a circle of friends, suspected of responding to "someone in the West". "From next year, you should be prepared to be defeated by us in China. As for the international community, we will meet. "
It is worth mentioning that in June 5438+065438+ 10, the valuation of new forces and traditional car companies also opened a huge gap. As the leader of the global new energy market, Tesla's sales continued to climb this year, and its share price soared. 165438+1On October 25th, Tesla's market value exceeded $500 billion for the first time.
At the beginning of the month, Akio Toyoda, president of Toyota, publicly stated that "Tesla didn't make anything real". Akio Toyoda admits that Tesla's current valuation exceeds the sum of the valuations of seven Japanese automakers, but he thinks Tesla is a restaurant that is still promoting novel recipes, and Toyota is more like a restaurant that already has a large number of customers. "Tesla believes that their recipes will become the standard in the future, but Toyota has a real kitchen and a real chef."
It cannot be ignored that behind the rise of the new energy stock market surrounded by flowers and applause, the safety problems of new energy vehicles frequently occur. 165438+1October 6, Ideal announced the recall of 10469 Li ONE electric vehicle. According to official data, as of June 365438+1October 3 1 day in 2020, there were 97 front suspension collision accidents in Li ONE, of which 10 caused the ball head of the lower arm of the front suspension to break away from the ball pin.
Coincidentally, there were many spontaneous combustion accidents in Weimar in June+10, 5438. At the end of June, 5438+ 10, Weimar recalled 1282 Weimar cars and replaced the power battery pack. Prior to this, both Wei Lai and Tucki were exposed to incidents of network disconnection, fire and smoke, and Tesla was also affected by Model? When S was driving at high speed, the skylight fell off and was pushed to the forefront again.
In recent days, the share price of the new forces in the head has fluctuated and fallen. Haitong Securities believes that the recent adjustment of the stock price in the secondary market of the industry and the superposition of Shannon's short-selling reports will undoubtedly cool the industry. The development direction of new energy vehicles may be clear, but the development process is tortuous, the industry pattern will change greatly, and the opportunities and risks in the short and medium term will be highlighted. In the early stage, the new energy vehicle sector was hot. After rapid speculation, most of the stocks of listed companies in related industrial chains have accumulated a lot of gains, and their short-term valuations are at a high level. Many funds have the demand of profit-taking, and the short-term value returns obviously.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.