When everyone was collecting wheat and corn, the soybean market fluctuated greatly.

Generally speaking, the sudden drop in international soybean prices has led to the decline of domestic soybeans, and with the continuous auction of domestic soybeans, the trend of domestic soybean market is confusing.

So, what happened?

1, US beans fell

The decline of American beans is a strong signal.

At present, the eyes of global soybeans are focused on American soybeans. On the one hand, the dependence of domestic soybeans has been as high as over 80%. On the other hand, it has basically become a fact that South American soybeans have been affected by severe dry weather. Brazil, Argentina and other countries have lowered their soybean production expectations, and even Paraguay, the fourth largest soybean producer in the world, has cut its output by half and has begun to import soybeans from other countries.

Therefore, soybeans all over the world are concentrated in the United States.

However, at this moment, the United States announced an investigation report and fried the pot.

According to the report, due to the high price of chemical fertilizer, American farmers are overwhelmed and prefer to plant soybeans instead of corn. Generally speaking, the amount of chemical fertilizer needed by soybeans is only about half that of corn and wheat.

In this case, American farmers are more inclined to grow soybeans.

The report shows that in 2022, the planting area of American beans was 90.955 million acres, which was higher than the previous market expectation of 88.727 million acres.

The quarterly inventory of American beans is 19.3 1 100 million bushels, which is also higher than the previous market expectation of 19.0 1 100 million bushels.

As a result, affected by this, the price of American beans plummeted.

2. Weather interference

However, it is clear that the market rarely has a unilateral market.

Under the negative situation of the growth of soybean planting area in the United States, another news has made the trend of soybeans confusing.

According to the national oceanic and atmospheric administration's weather forecast for the country from April to June, drought and high temperature may occur at the same time.

This means that the growth of soybeans will be threatened, which will undoubtedly become an excellent theme for future weather speculation.

This also laid the foundation for soybean near weakness and far strength.

3. Increased supply

Generally speaking, our grain market is relatively independent, so it is not obviously affected by international food prices, but soybeans are an exception.

When the international soybean situation fluctuates, domestic soybeans also fluctuate greatly.

Recently, domestic soybeans have fallen repeatedly, which has also cast a veil over the trend of domestic soybeans.

One of the first reasons for the decline of domestic soybeans is that the market is worried about the huge amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong from April to May, so they have sold off the spot one after another. Coupled with the continuous auction of policy soybeans, the supply of soybeans has increased for a short time and the price of soybeans has fallen.

On the other hand, under the policy of "expanding soybeans" this year, the sown area of soybeans has increased substantially, which has also aggravated the shadow of the increase in soybean supply and the inability of soybean prices to rise.

Although, on the surface, soybeans are more negative, but the new agricultural concept believes that it cannot be considered that soybeans have gone, and soybeans still have a strong upward momentum.

First, although it is a fact that the soybean planting area has increased, the yield per mu of soybean is quite different from that of corn. Usually, farmers will use better land to grow corn, while the land with relatively cheap price is used to grow soybeans.

Although the planting area has increased, we should know that this is based on the decline of soybean planting area and output last year, and the safety of the three staple foods should be guaranteed, so we will not sacrifice the output of staple foods for planting soybeans.

This means that soybean production is relatively limited.

Second, from a global perspective, the supply of soybeans continues to be tight.

Although the planting area of American beans has been threatened to increase, it is still too early to judge at the beginning of April, and it is not ruled out that there will be changes in the future.

And more importantly, with the current high oil prices, the demand for biofuels in the United States is still strong.

According to the data, in 20021-2022, the total soybean oil used to produce biodiesel in the United States was 4.85 million tons, an increase of 2 1% year-on-year, accounting for about 4 1% of the total soybean oil production in the United States.

This also means that under the strong demand of biofuels, the follow-up trend of American soybeans will obviously not be a one-sided situation with calm winds and waves, and it is destined to make waves again.

Therefore, the "storm" of soybeans has obviously not really started. In addition, the current spring sowing is just around the corner, and farmers' subsidies for planting crops are actually limited. More importantly, they are more affected by prices. Therefore, under the tone of comprehensively increasing and expanding soybeans, the price of soybeans is hard to fall sharply.

Welcome to collect the "new concept of agriculture" and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.