The "epidemic" is a black swan event, and the essence of the company is profit. Grasping these two points, whether to adhere to "globalization" is no longer a controversial issue.

Text/"Autobot" Wu Yu

According to foreign media reports, GM has informed suppliers at the end of March that it will suspend the research and development process of at least six vehicles, and it is likely to postpone the listing of large SUVs. On the contrary, on March 18, 2008, Apple continued its tradition of "spring development" and launched 2020 iPad with A 12Z bionic chip and dual cameras. Professional.

General Motors disclosed in this year's financial report that there will be Chevrolet Tahoe, Suburban and GMC in 2020. Yukon and Yukon? XL and Cadillac Escalade are listed one after another. These full-size cars have high popularity and high profit margins, and have always been the "cash machines" of GM. If the listing is delayed because of the pneumonia epidemic in COVID-19, it should be a helpless move affected by the suspension of production.

General Motors has closed all its production plants in North America, and Ellington (Texas), which produces full-size SUVs, is on the shutdown list. In contrast, Apple has already moved its production system out of North America and made China its largest "manufacturing base".

In June and February this year, 65,438+,the China "link" of the global supply chain system went down, and the global manufacturing industry was more or less implicated. At that time, the voice of "de-globalization" flashed by. Since March 2020, countries all over the world have stopped non-essential economic activities, and the trend of output and consumption has "stopped at the brink" and the statement of "shifting supply chain" has broken down.

After World War II, the international monetary system centered on the US dollar was confirmed. Politicians hope to gradually reduce the trade barriers that affect economic growth through international commerce and finance.

GATT "transformation" provides a framework for WTO, agreements and disputes; The London Stock Exchange initiated the "financial liberalization reform", which not only opened the London stock market, but also closely linked the global market. Container transportation has become the protagonist of transnational logistics, and the transportation cost has been greatly reduced; Multinational companies reorganize production and transfer labor-intensive production to areas with lower labor costs. ...

Today, by strengthening the cross-border flow of goods, services, technology and capital, economic integration and interdependence among countries and regions in the world are becoming more and more important. From 1970 to 200 1, the proportion of export trade in the world's total industrial output value rose from 8.5% to 16.2%, which contributed to "globalization" beyond geographical boundaries.

However, whether economic development needs "globalization" has always existed. Britain left the European Union, and the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement ... The voices of de-globalization, globalization and even anti-globalization flashed from time to time. According to the multidimensional globalization index published by Swiss Economic Research Institute, from 1990 to 2007, the level of globalization rose rapidly. 20 15, the pace of globalization has declined for the first time in the past 40 years.

After the epidemic, the manufacturer will restart the production line that has stopped. For multinational companies, will they reconsider the issue of "globalization": continue to promote global distribution? Or choose to strengthen the strength of "regional clusters"? In today's low tide of globalization, should automobile enterprises join in it?

Global localization

In the automobile industry, most multinational automobile companies are vigorously promoting "localization", including local demand-driven product design, local corporate social responsibility practice, and even rebuilding brand vision and Slogen…… according to local traditions ............................................................................................................................

There are usually three dimensions to define globalization: politics, economy and culture. The "localization" promoted by multinational car companies can be said to focus on the integration of local culture first, and then on the expansion of local industrial chain. This "global localization" does not conflict with globalization.

In the catering industry, examples of "global localization" abound. Burger King in Canada? King has more than 1. 1 10,000 branches in 6/kloc-0 countries and regions around the world, but the products sold in China market have added spicy sandwiches with Sichuan hot sauce and spicy chicken wings with spiced flavor to meet the tastes of China users. Starbucks Coffee, which was born in Seattle, USA, is also promoting "local integration", which not only provides more indoor dining space than in Europe and America, but also aims at traditional festivals in China-ice zongzi on Dragon Boat Festival and customized moon cakes on Mid-Autumn Festival, not to mention the varieties.

In the automobile industry, many automobile companies will adjust their configuration schemes according to the needs of users in China, and even the design team will visit China at the beginning of the product project to learn about China culture and directly face users in China, so that the products listed five years later can meet the tastes of users in China. One of the most extreme localization cases is "lengthening the wheelbase". Nowadays, Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar Land Rover, Cadillac, England and finidi all have "China Edition" with extended wheelbase, and the S90 long-wheelbase sedan manufactured by Volvo Daqing Factory is also exported to North America.

Between globalization and localization, automobile enterprises face more choices and balances. Behind the choice, the first is the cultural differences and demand differences between the East and the West, and it is often difficult to have both. In the grand plan of globalization, the cultural conflict between the East and the West is the "curse" of multinational corporations, especially transnational mergers and acquisitions. Only by doing a good job of cultural integration and emphasizing mutual respect can multinational companies succeed.

Yuan Xiaolin, global senior vice president of Volvo Car Group and president and CEO of Volvo Car Asia-Pacific, told Autobots: "Geely's' returning the tiger to the mountain' after purchasing Volvo, giving full play to Volvo's characteristics and subjective initiative, is not only a commercial behavior, but also involves the integration of Chinese and Western cultures and the integration of different corporate cultures. Only by grasping the relationship between all parties and the degree between them and pursuing the same value can a new idea of cross-cultural globalization break out. "

Between globalization and localization, among the choices faced by automobile enterprises, there is also a balance between sales and profits. In the automobile industry, which pursues economies of scale, it is difficult to really give up globalization and completely turn to localization. This is also the fundamental reason why the headquarters often rejects the regional market demand, even if that demand looks perfect and attractive. According to the demand of the regional market, the launch of "unique" models means that "standardization" has been broken, and the costs of design research and development, process procurement and manufacturing quality control will soar.

In joint ventures, executives responsible for product strategic planning, market positioning or product platform management often regard the global conference as a "battlefield"-while interpreting local needs, they demand to change the design, and every explosive configuration must be "scrambled" to "hidden" ... The "dynamic taillight" which is very popular in China market and has become a brand mark is being "slapped" by joint venture executives.

Looking back on 2005, BMW launched the fifth generation BMW in China market? The long wheelbase version of the 5 Series was a great success. However, few people know that in order to persuade Munich to agree to extend the wheelbase of the 5-Series sedan and provide technical support, Dr. Stenko, then president and CEO of BMW Group Greater China, "staked" his career.

It should be emphasized that product design and even engineering scheme may be adjusted according to local demand, but that is not to give up "globalization"-although the importance of regional market is increasing, the strategy of global operation has never changed. Regardless of the automobile industry or the global manufacturing industry, "global thinking, local action" will remain the first principle for a long time.

industry cluster

When China announced that Wuhan was "closed" and used "isolation" measures to resist the COVID-19 epidemic, global automobile production was more or less affected-Nissan, Fiat and Jaguar Land Rover all had key parts from Wuhan; In addition, there are 170 Korean spare parts enterprises that set up factories in China to supply Korea.

According to the data released by China Customs, in 20 19, China exported1220,000 vehicles, up 6.1%year-on-year; The export of auto parts was 3654.8 1 100 million yuan (about 53 billion US dollars), up 0.8% year-on-year. Another data shows that in the spare parts export in 20 19, the products produced by foreign-funded enterprises in China accounted for more than 40% of the total export value.

The proportion of 40% shows at least three things: First, there are a large number of global parts giants in China serving vehicle manufacturers nearby to achieve a win-win situation in response efficiency and logistics efficiency; Secondly, when arranging production capacity, these parts giants not only consider the growth space of serving customers' future demand, but also preset the capacity margin of global supply; Thirdly, the "globalization" defined by these parts giants is composed of a single regional market and a local supply chain in series or parallel, and the possibility of "mutual backup" is already being considered.

Under such an industrial background, how to make good use of the reserve capacity of parts enterprises and multinational automobile enterprises to maximize the income of every inch of land and every yuan invested? With the global manufacturing industry declining, how to continue to promote China's manufacturing industry and help China's manufacturing industry and China's automobile enterprises get the impetus for sustainable development?

Huang, who is currently the vice chairman of China International Economic Exchange Center, recently put forward the viewpoint of "industrial chain agglomeration", which is an important feature of global industrial chain reconstruction in this epidemic. The industrial chain cluster that has been formed or will be formed in China is the basis for attracting the global high-end manufacturing industry chain to settle in China.

Huang's judgment comes from the observation of Suzhou, Chongqing and other places: the electronic manufacturing industry has formed an industrial chain cluster, and more than 80% of related parts are produced locally. "The clustered production mode reduces the risks brought by the global procurement of spare parts and highlights its competitiveness during the epidemic period."

The so-called "cluster" means that competitive enterprises in a certain industry and their associated cooperative enterprises, specialized suppliers and service providers gather in one place. Silicon Valley, Cambridge, and Seoul Digital Media City are the representatives of modern industrial clusters. In Beijing, you can also find the gathering places of industrial clusters in the past, such as Rome market (between today's Caishikou and Hufang Bridge), food street, dengshikou and Baizhifang ... But with social changes and industrial upgrading, these old markets no longer exist.

Michael Porter, a professor at Harvard Business School, believes that clusters have the potential to influence competition in three ways: improving the productivity of companies in clusters, promoting innovation in this field and stimulating new business in this field. In today's global economic situation, the comparative advantages of cheap labor, ports and docks are of little significance, and changes such as efficient use of investment and continuous acquisition of original innovation are more advantageous in the competition.

In the automobile industry, the positioning of multinational companies in China market is constantly adjusted with the development trend of the industry and the changes in the competitive situation, from establishing production bases to providing support for expanding the market, to continuously enhancing the strength of R&D and enhancing the competitive advantage. ...

Dr. Feng, a member of the board of directors of Volkswagen Brand, CEO of Audi AG (China) and CEO of Volkswagen Brand China, said that by 2025, the proportion of software developed by Audi AG will increase from the current 65,438+00% to at least 60%. Volkswagen headquarters has 4,000 to 5,000 experts in the field of automotive software and software integration. China will continue to strengthen its strength in the field of digitalization, attracting more than 65,438+0,000 experts in the fields of electronics, software and software and hardware integration.

After the epidemic, the manufacturing industry will face a new competitive situation, which may become an opportunity for China market and China manufacturing industry to upgrade and transform into "technology-intensive".

Necklace and Jane?

Let's go back to the question at the beginning of this article: which is more promising, deep globalization or de-globalization? Does the automobile industry need to "go global"?

It should be emphasized that there is no contradiction between the development of a single market and the global layout of the industrial chain. From the practice of economic globalization, it is precisely because of the outsourcing and transfer of non-core businesses in developed countries that the current global industrial structure has been constructed; It is also because the recipient countries continue to improve the transferred industries, which has spawned a constantly refined international division of labor.

What needs to be grasped is that today's global manufacturing industry should not only lead the development trend of automation, electrification and interconnection, but also face the severe challenges of the parallel development of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, the traditional travel mode and the future travel to grab resources and customers, and also deal with the "black hole" brought about by the COVID-19 virus epidemic ... Only by strengthening global industrial cooperation can we cope with the changes brought about by uncertain factors and unstable factors.

What needs to be clear is that when an industry enters "globalization" development, the whole society will benefit from it-the intensification of market competition usually lowers the price of products, which means that consumers can get products at lower prices. Obviously, this has reduced the inequality of consumption. Even if the market is controlled by local monopolists, when products enter the market at lower prices, more people will naturally have the right to choose.

More crucially, for multinational companies, especially multinational automobile companies, it is difficult to simply define the future development strategy with a single word such as "deep globalization" or "deglobalization".

The automobile industry is an industry with long investment cycle and low return. The time period of a new car from project research and development, process verification, valve opening to listing, capacity climbing and profitability is as short as four or five years and as long as seven or eight years. The modern management system of board of supervisors-board of directors-economic management committee has been formulated, and the development strategy depends on 10 years or even longer, so it is difficult to adjust quickly because of one person and one thing.

A general manager told the autobots that the "epidemic" was obviously a black swan incident, and the essence of the company was profit. Grasping these two points, whether to adhere to "globalization" is no longer a controversial issue.

Gao Le, President and CEO of BMW Group Greater China, said: "Another factor to consider when considering the supply chain layout is the scale effect. Personally, I don't agree with the model of' distributing parts to many parts of the world and producing each part in small batches'. I think, in the final analysis, the layout should be based on the scale effect-which market is bigger, where the supplier network is bigger. China is BMW's largest market in the world, and we firmly promote the localization of production in China; The supply chain will also be laid out accordingly with automobile production, which will continue. "

If we consider Huang's "industrial chain clustering" from another angle-not focusing on the interests of China's manufacturing industry or China's local government, but connecting the global "industrial chain clusters" in series, each cluster is good at chassis adjustment or cost optimization regardless of functional design or chip development ... It is a bright pearl; The global industrial chain is a silver chain. Connect these pearls in series to make them more shiny and precious.

From this perspective, the development direction of industrial chain globalization and value chain globalization will never change.

Yuan Xiaolin said: "In the past ten years, China's automobile industry has become a beneficiary industry of globalization, and has gone through a process from quantitative change to qualitative change. Today, ten years later, globalization has developed to a deeper level. We should consider how to find development space in the hedging process of two different concepts:' deep globalization' and' anti-globalization'; We also need to consider how China can play a more important role in it. Next may be globalization led by China. " (Text/"Autobot" Wu Yu, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of Autobot, and the copyright belongs to Autobot.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.