Such an industry winter, the hog industry every few years to experience, commonly known as the pig cycle.

But it is in this downturn in market conditions, the industry's high-quality development of the main more prominent.

Recently, the price of hogs is still continuing a relatively weak trend.

Despite the fact that the national uniform hog-to-grain ratio entered the first warning zone of decline, the state launched the central frozen pork savings storage work, but the emotional support failed to transfer to the spot market, especially in the current requirements of the off-season, hog prices are still weak.

In fact, after the Spring Festival because of the rapid fall in pork requirements, pig prices fell 13.95% compared with a year ago, in mid-February, the Development and Reform Commission announced that the price of hogs and grains to enter the excessive fall of the second level of the warning zone, the breeding side of the support of the expectations, hog prices produce signs of a halt to the decline.

Guotai Junan futures industry office seminar chief of agricultural products Zhou Xiaoqiu performance in the country officially launched the work of storage, once again give the market emotional support, but the first quarter of pork spending is still in the off-season, the slaughtering rate of low, this week pig prices appear oscillating trend, based on the previous downward cycle of the storage plan to look at, wherever experienced many times after the storage, the spot price will produce a certain boost.

According to Huishang futures agricultural analyst Yuxiu, the first batch of March 3, the first storage of 19,400 tons of listed bidding and trading has ended, the average price of 19,135 yuan / ton, in the case of the logistics fee is not counted, according to the number of meat converted into pigs in 12.513.0 yuan / kg, according to the price of white pork converted into pigs in 14.014.5 yuan / kg.

And this week, the national hog price overall transfer range is limited, at 0.1 yuan / kg, out of the average weekly price of 12.28 yuan / kg, a weekly increase of 1.57%, a year-on-year drop of 55.78%.

Social pig farms in the poor consequences of storage or weakening of equilibrium sentiment, currently in the seasonal spending off-season, the state and corporate savings or additional increase in market requirements, but the requirements of the surface to lift the magnitude of the usual, now the overall supply is more than enough, the market is still weak, in general, this round of storage to bring the market sentiment is not good, far less than the last round of the previous year's last round of storage (after the National Day in 2021).

Yu Xiu said.

The number of storage base in the market expectations, because it is more difficult to basically reverse the supply and demand situation, and thus the stabilization of the market storage more at the psychological level, the essence of the impact is limited to be on guard against storage if the price is still difficult to get better, the breeding end of the revival of discouragement of the supply of the revival caused by the outpouring of again.

Minmetals futures agricultural analyst Wang Jun performance.

However, the reporter noted that in the pork storage news boost, the A-share market hog enterprises to produce a certain rise, but the news is particularly fast by the market to digest, the rally failed to continue.

As a leading enterprise, the National People's Congress, Makuhara shares chairman Qin Yinglin performance, practitioners should face the reality, to respect the market, respect the pig cycle, to be ready to prepare in advance.

At the time of the flight, when the pig price is high when there is profit, to dig deeper in the industry to do articles on the advancement of the industry, to turn the dividend into its own ability, especially into the ability to cope with the low pig cycle.

Then when the low tide comes, to do the effectiveness, to reduce the cost, to protect the production safety, to protect the supply, which is the response to the cycle in the industry.

He said to accurately face the hog cycle, do not go to ignore it without responding.

To respect the pig cycle, to not always talk about the pig cycle, to fit their own behavior and the pig cycle, including production deployment, capital deployment.

In addition, he showed that from the market level, the excellent head of the enterprise to join together, that is, complementary strengths, so that the effectiveness of the promotion, quality promotion, market optimization and other aspects of the linkage to improve, so as to promote the whole hog industry **** with the improvement.

When to get out of the low point of the current round of the hog cycle has become the center of attention of the market today.

In this regard, Qin Yinglin thought, after the year in the spending off-season, the price of hogs is relatively low, according to the market supply and demand situation, the second half of the hog price or a slight improvement.

Today it is too early to make a correct guess on the future price of hogs, but also depends on the market situation in the next period.

But no matter how the external environment changes, the progress of the enterprise's own hard power is the key.

To cope with the pig cycle enterprises must consider their own system, mechanism and talent, focus on innovation, process, technology, governance, effectiveness, cost, manpower these internal factors.

In Zhou Xiaoqiu's view, the inflection point of the pig cycle must be determined with reference to the progress of capacity depopulation, the Ministry of Agriculture data show that at the end of January, 42.9 million breeding sows, higher than the normal level of stocking, is still in the downward cycle of hogs.

Capacity depopulation is always determined by the farming profit resolution, the fourth quarter of 2021 farming profit return, a certain level of impact on the capacity depopulation beat, the first two quarters of the rapid increase in the cost of feed, the off-season requirements to limit the price of hogs rebound, if the farming side of the continuous negative profit effectively stimulate further depopulation of capacity, is expected to be produced in the three or four quarters of 2022, the market inflection point.

This year's National People's Congress, National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) member and chairman of the New Hope Group, Liu Yonghao, brought the "proposal on stabilizing production capacity, decreasing cyclical fluctuations, and leading the hog industry in a stable and progressive" (hereinafter referred to as "the proposal").

In the Proposal, Liu Yonghao puts forward four suggestions, which include increasing counter-cyclical financial support for farming enterprises, leading rating agencies to judge fairly and objectively, and perfecting financial risk hedging tools.

Early 2021, the pig futures victory in the Dashang officially listed, as a financial tool to help industry enterprises to hedge the risk of cyclical fluctuations.

According to the reporter's understanding, the pastoral stock, as the industry's leading goose, has set up a futures team before the listing of hog futures, and actively intervened after the listing of hog futures.

In Wang Jun's opinion, hog futures supply at least two aspects of the industry's sensitization, one is the price anchoring sensitization, through the pricing of the forward, fair leadership of the market expectations, help enterprises to fair distribution of resources to hold stable operation.

Secondly, it helps enterprises to intervene in hedging, locking the price and profit in advance, avoiding the price risk of the forward, so that more spirit will be used in the entity's operation.

Hog futures as a new procurement and sales occasions and channels, can assist enterprises to lock the price of hogs and operating costs (or sales profits), reduce the risk of fluctuations in business operations, the scope of hog farming to provide a major impetus to the development of the sensation.

Yu Xiu thought.

When talking about the relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy, Qin Yinglin showed that the real economy corresponding to the non-entity, the virtual and the real are dependent on each other, and support each other.

Virtual for the real to do more work, the real is like fighting on the frontier, to run faster, more way, more maneuverable, for the virtual to play the basic.

Since the listing of hog futures, the industry customers involved in the enthusiasm for continuous promotion, according to the announcement of the listed companies, the head of the breeding enterprises have mostly built their own futures seminar team, and held hedging attempts, with the future futures market range increase, will be more conducive to the industry to suppress the price of risk, and to achieve the relative peace of the financial.

For the aquaculture industry, the futures contract price must reflect the level of far-monthly expectations, for the production enterprises can play a leading role in the production and operation of the sensibility, conducive to the fair deployment of production.

Zhou Xiaoqiu said.

(Author: Futures Daily Wu Mengwen)