0 1, the pig price is in a dilemma, and the trend is "worrying"
Recently, the price trend of live pigs has been tangled, and it has been fluctuating between 10.5- 10.8 yuan/kg.
Today, the price of pigs has changed from a small decline to a small increase. There are 1 1 provinces in China, and three provinces have fallen.
The rising provinces are mainly concentrated in Central China, East China, Northeast China and other places, and the increase rate is only about 0.05-0. 10 yuan, with little increase; The provinces that fell today are Chongqing, Sichuan, Hebei and other three provinces and cities, of which Chongqing fell by 0.05 yuan, 10.6 yuan/kg; Chongqing fell by 0. 1 yuan, 10.7 yuan/kg; Sichuan fell 0. 15 yuan, 10.75 yuan/kg.
I just received the news of pig price on August 23, which is not bad, and there has been a large-scale increase. I hope the upward trend can be maintained.
2 1 province in China, in which: the price of live pigs in Shandong increased by 20 points, and the mainstream price was10.6-1.0 yuan/kg; Henan 2 wool, 10.5- 10.9 yuan/kg; Jilin hair growth 1, 10.3- 10.6 yuan/kg.
At present, the trend of pig price is worrying, and the reasons for the dilemma are complicated, mainly due to the interaction of negative factors and positive factors, which leads to the shock of pig price.
Analysis of factors favorable to pig price;
First, it's autumn and it's getting colder and colder. According to the custom of our people, we will increase the intake of some meat food and increase energy to resist the cold winter.
Coupled with the consumption of many major festivals such as Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, New Year's Day and Spring Festival in the future, the price of pigs in the next few months will have an opportunity.
Second, tens of thousands of schools across the country are opening one after another. After the school canteens are opened, the consumption of some meat foods will increase.
Third, from the perspective of the pig cycle, it is currently in the rising cycle of pigs. During the period from last autumn to the beginning of this year, many small and medium-sized farmers gradually withdrew from the pig market, which led to an increase in the proportion of large-scale farming, which will also be conducive to the increase in pig prices.
In addition to these advantages, there are some disadvantages:
First, the current high price of pork makes it difficult for some residents to consume. It is understood that pork prices in various places are generally in the range of 16- 18 yuan/kg, and some places even reach 20 yuan/kg. Although much lower than 20 19 and 8 yuan in 2020, it is higher than 20 18.
Second, affected by the global economic downturn, some enterprises began to "double down", and some enterprises reduced production, resulting in shrinking income and declining consumption power of some residents.
Third, some pig dealers and slaughter enterprises have price suppression in their production and operation, which is also unfavorable to pig prices.
It is these factors that are intertwined, resulting in the current dilemma of pig prices. However, in my opinion, pig prices will have a small climax in the fourth quarter, which is worth looking forward to.
02, oil prices continue to fall, and it is expected to return to the 7 prefix.
Today is August 22nd, the ninth working day of oil price statistics before oil price adjustment. According to the statistics of the first nine working days, on August 23 and 24, oil prices fell sharply.
It is understood that the current rate of change of crude oil is -4.97%, and the oil price is expected to be lowered by 265 yuan/ton. The discount calculation is that the oil price is expected to fall by 0.20 yuan/liter to 0.24 yuan/liter.
According to this understanding, if there is no big fluctuation in oil price tomorrow, adding a box of 50 liters of oil at 24: 00 tomorrow will save 10- 12 yuan, then the domestic refined oil price will be lowered by about 1. 1 yuan/liter.
By then, the national mainstream price of No.92 gasoline will return to around 8.20 yuan/liter, and No.95 gasoline will fully return to the "8 yuan era".
Tomorrow's oil price adjustment is worth looking forward to, but according to industry analysis, after the 16 round of oil price reduction, the international oil price still has a downward trend. In the second half of the year, 92 # gasoline will probably return to the "7 prefix" era.
03, food prices fluctuate downward, can the market outlook be optimistic?
The recent grain market has really depressed everyone, especially the corn and wheat markets, which are weak, falling more and rising less.
It is understood that due to the continuous decline of the corn market for several days, the national average price of corn has fallen to 1.42 yuan/kg, and the purchase price of some enterprises in North China and Shandong has been lower than 1.35 yuan, and the lower-priced Jin Hui in Binzhou has fallen to 1.32 yuan/kg.
On August 22nd, the price of corn in Northeast China approached 1.30 yuan/kg. Judging from the decline, the current corn price has dropped by about 200-250 yuan/ton compared with the same period of last year.
At present, regarding the market outlook of corn, all parties in the market are pessimistic. The price of corn never seems to fall. However, in my humble opinion, I feel that the current corn price is close to the bottom. In a little time, after the shock, the corn market is likely to rebound.
As for logic, it is not complicated:
First, in 2022, there is a certain uncertainty in corn yield, and the probability of yield reduction is too large, mainly due to the frequent rainfall in Northeast China since June, and there is a certain degree of waterlogging. In addition, the area of corn in Northeast China has decreased this year, and some institutions predict that the output of corn in Northeast China will be reduced by about 6-8 million tons this year.
Second, the international corn producing areas suffered from drought. It is understood that since the beginning of August, due to the hot summer weather, corn drought has been severe in some parts of Europe, and about three-quarters of the corn producing areas in Romania, a major corn producing country, have suffered from drought.
Coupled with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international corn export share will also be affected.
Third, the cost performance of corn is improved. Due to the continuous price reduction, the current price of corn has been in a low position relative to the prices of wheat, soybeans and rice, with high cost performance. In the future, under the same circumstances, the demand for corn will have a certain price advantage.
04. The price of cattle and sheep remains low, but the price of meat remains high.
Food prices are falling, pig prices are in a dilemma, oil prices are returning, and the market for cattle and sheep is not optimistic. Since the beginning of the year, the price of cattle and sheep has been fluctuating and falling.
Judging from the price of cattle, the price of fattened cattle last winter was mostly in the price range of 19-2 1 yuan/kg. After seven or eight months of decline, the mainstream price of fattening cattle in various places has dropped to 15.5- 18.0 yuan/kg, with an average drop of 2-3 yuan per kg, with a drop of at least 2000.
It is understood that Kailu Ximentar in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia 16.5 yuan/kg, Siziqi in Wulanchabu 16. 12 yuan/kg, Siping City in Jilin Province 19.0 yuan/kg, Xingan County in Jiangxi Province 18.4 yuan/kg, Jinan City in Shandong Province.
In contrast, the price of sheep is more worrying than that of cattle, and it has fallen a little more than that of cattle. On average, one sheep has dropped at least from 200 yuan at the beginning of the year, and many will go to 300 yuan, especially the price of lamb has dropped even more.
Although the price of sheep rebounded in June and July, it fell again in August.
It is understood that Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, 35 kg male lamb 650 yuan/only, 45 kg female lamb 500 yuan/only; Inner Mongolia Siziwangqi 30 kg male mutton 520 yuan/only, 40 kg female mutton only sold to 500 yuan/only; The price of 40 kg male lambs in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang Province is 540 yuan/lamb; Elimination of ewes in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang 12 yuan/kg.
The reasons for the decline in the price of cattle and sheep are not complicated: First, since 20 18, the profit of breeding cattle and sheep has been good, and many people have joined the breeding ranks. At present, the stock of cattle and sheep is relatively high.
Second, due to the bad global economy, the income of some domestic residents has declined, and beef and mutton weighing more than 30 to 40 kilograms have been discouraged, and consumption has declined.
Third, the first half of the year was in the off-season of beef and mutton consumption, and the price of beef and mutton was not strong.
Although the price of cattle and sheep is low, the price of beef and mutton all over the country has been high, and there is no special situation, which really makes people unable to afford it. It is understood that the mainstream price of beef in China is around 38-45 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price of mutton is mostly between 35-43 yuan/kg, which is still relatively high on the whole.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of today 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 28.58 yuan/kg, down 0.9% from last Friday; Beef was 77.2 1 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from last Friday; Mutton is 67.09 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from last Friday;
It is observed that there is a bad phenomenon at present, that is, in the face of low prices of cattle and sheep and high prices of beef and mutton, a large number of cattle and sheep have been slaughtered in some areas, which will inevitably affect the productivity of calves and lambs and adversely affect the production of cattle and sheep next year.
Dear friends, on August 23, the price of pigs rose sharply, and the oil price was going down again. The prices of corn, cattle and sheep have fallen sharply, but the prices of beef and mutton remain high. what do you think? Is pork, beef and mutton expensive there? Welcome to express your views for your reference.