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How much can Salt Lake shares rise?
Salt Lake divests loss-making chemical assets, mainly engaged in the research and development and production of lithium salts such as potassium chloride, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from salt lake resources, and is a leading enterprise for extracting potassium and lithium from China Salt Lake. In 2020, the gross profit margin of the company's potash fertilizer business is 99%, and the gross profit margin of the lithium business is 1%. It is estimated that the gross profit margin of lithium business will exceed 9% in 20021year. The company has 20 years of salt lake resources, the largest soluble potassium magnesium salt deposit in China, Chaerhan Salt Lake, with about 540 million tons of potassium chloride and 8 million tons of lithium chloride. The company has a production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium chloride, 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate, 30,000 tons of lithium salt under construction and 40,000 tons of long-term planned production capacity.

The company is the largest potassium chloride producer in China, with an annual production capacity of 5 million tons, accounting for 64% of the national production capacity, and 5.52 million tons in 2020, accounting for 78% of the national production. The reserves of potassium chloride in Chaerhan Salt Lake are 540 million tons. After years of development, it has advanced technology and production technology. Relying on high-quality potash resources and technological processes, the company's potash cost is at the lowest level in the industry, and its gross profit margin has remained at 70% for many years. The company greatly reduced its debt level and financial expenditure through debt-to-equity swap. In 2020, the net assets and net profit attributable to the parent company turned positive smoothly, reaching 5.27 billion yuan and 2.04 billion yuan respectively, and the ability of going concern was restored.

For a long time in the future, lithium will be in a tight balance between supply and demand, which will lead to a higher price of recycled lithium. Here, a group of researchers posted information that industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose to 98,000, sighing every day and rising every day. The cost is more than 30 thousand, and the price is 65438+ 10 thousand. The spring of lithium is coming again. If there is a shortage of goods, the price will go up. This is the law of the market. If it is less than 1%, the price will not rise 1%, but will keep rising until this 1% gives up the competitive resource share. Just look at the container price of China-US routes this year. Now 1 container has risen to more than 20,000 US dollars, which is equivalent to earning a boat. What is the reason? There are too many goods and flexible transportation capacity. Ships don't suddenly fall from the sky, and new ships will take years to build. The price increase is sorting, and the shipper can't afford such a high price.

Salt Lake City stocks are valued by segments, so potash stocks are valued at 20 times (in 2022) and lithium batteries are valued at 40 times (in 2022). It is estimated that from 2002/kloc-0 to 2023, the net profit of potassium chloride plate in Salt Lake will be 4.544 billion yuan, 565.438+75 million yuan and 5.689 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of salt lithium plate will be 483 million yuan,165438+80 million yuan and 1223 million yuan respectively. The market value of potash fertilizer and lithium salt is 65.438+0035 billion yuan and 47.2 billion yuan respectively, and the market value is 65.438+0507 billion yuan. In the valuation of salt lake, it is easier for us to reach an agreement on the valuation of potash fertilizer business, while the valuation of lithium business may be very different, while the valuation of Kodak manufacturing, traditional ceramic machinery and ceramic products is relatively easy. Traditional enterprises have a long history, people are calm, and the valuation is not much different.