At the end of the year, New Year's Day holiday begins. In the domestic agricultural products market, recently, the consumer market is limited by the follow-up factors of mask problem, and it is difficult to improve consumption. Residents mostly rest at home. In the author's hometown, traditional rural markets are often crowded after entering the twelfth lunar month, but now it is particularly depressed, residents' consumption emotions are deviated, the turnover of catering and shops in mainstream cities in China is reduced, the consumption fever on New Year's Day is cooling down, and the market demand is less than expected. This has also intensified the downward pressure on a variety of domestic agricultural products. Recently, the prices of live pigs, eggs and braised chicken have fallen sharply. However, with the fermentation of long and short games, there have been some new changes in the market!

First, the price of pigs has fallen sharply!

1February, the price of live pigs showed a "rise-fall-rise" performance, and the price of live pigs fluctuated strongly at the beginning of the month and at the end of the month. However, around the middle of1February, the price of live pigs fell sharply, and the price of live pigs fell by more than 32% in the month. At the end of the month, the market sentiment became stronger and superimposed, and the consumption enthusiasm improved slightly.

However, with the closing of1February and the New Year's Day, the performance of the consumer market is less than expected. From the market feedback, at present, most of the pre-holiday preparations in the market are completed, while the traditional curing cycle in the south has come to an end, and the consumption follow-up is not smooth, and the price of fat pigs has fallen sharply, which has also caused panic fermentation at the breeding end, the market's sentiment of recognizing the price has warmed up, and the price of pigs has dropped sharply!

According to the data, on1February 3 1 day, the price of pigs dropped by 0.35 yuan/kg, and the average price of pigs dropped to 8.44 yuan/kg. The market showed a sharp decline. In the northern and southern regions of China, the price of pigs fell in an all-round way. Among them, the price of pigs in the northern market, the northeast region and the Heijiliao market fell to 7.8 yuan/kg. In high-priced areas, the Sichuan-Chongqing market touched.

In the northern region, the pig price gradually fell below 8 yuan/kg, while in the southern market, the pig price generally fell below 9 yuan/kg. The average domestic pig price shifted downwards, while the consumption follow-up was not smooth and the competition at the breeding end increased sharply. With the gradual easing of the supply of pigs, it was less difficult for slaughterhouses to collect pigs smoothly. Due to the reduction in the prices of vendors in the downstream market, consumer resistance was strong, and it was difficult for slaughterhouses to take delivery of pigs. Some slaughterhouses showed the performance of reducing their pigs, and many slaughterhouses increased their circulation, which made the market watch.

In the short term, the price of pigs will continue to fall. Although the consumption will be slightly supported during the New Year holiday, due to the loose stock of newborn pigs at the breeding end, there are still about 30% of large pigs in the second fattening. Therefore, the market competitive sentiment will rebound. After the New Year holiday, the market risk will be further aggravated, and the price of pigs may further bottom out!

Second, the price of eggs and chicken is higher!

In the domestic egg market, the egg price gradually got rid of the declining trend, and the market showed a trend of oversold and rebound. It is understood that the egg price in the producing area market fell to 4.2 yuan/kg a few days ago, and the sentiment of price appreciation at the breeding end became stronger, while the demand for centralized stocking also appeared in the terminal market. Under the long-short game, the egg price fluctuated strongly. At present, the egg price in the producing area market rose to about 4.42 yuan/kg!

Personally, as the New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays are approaching, the operating rate of domestic food factories is gradually picking up, and the mood of enterprises to buy eggs at low prices is heating up. In the consumer market, after the mask problem in mainstream cities in China has turned to Yang, most residents have recovered, and the consumption enthusiasm of some cities has gradually improved, and the enthusiasm of catering consumption has rebounded. There is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream market, and the market trading enthusiasm has warmed up. Therefore, in stages, the price of eggs has bottomed out and rebounded!

However, since January, the newly-opened laying hens have greatly increased due to the high sentiment of feeding chickens in September. However, due to the price deviation of meat and poultry, the consumer market is weak in boosting, and the old chickens in the farming area are weak in eliminating. The egg stocks in the producing areas have gradually increased, but the boost of the consumer market is still blocked. With the centralized replenishment of food factories, the group consumption fever has declined. It is expected that there will still be downward pressure on egg prices, and the support for the increase of egg prices is weak during New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays.

In the Ma chicken market, in1February, due to the continuous depression of the catering industry, the price of Ma chicken fluctuated downward, the profit level of the breeding end collapsed, the market sentiment turned worse, and the price of chicken seedlings fluctuated downward. According to institutional data, the average weight of Mao chicken was 5.5 kg, and the ratio of feed to meat was 2. 1, and the average profit of farmers fell to -5.9 yuan/chicken.

However, with the landing of the new ten articles on masks, the first batch of "Xiaoyangren" gradually recovered, many enterprises resumed their work and production, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses gradually picked up. In the consumer market, with the favorable support of New Year's Day, the demand performance gradually improved, and the bullish sentiment of enterprises warmed up. Many head breeding enterprises quickly raised the slaughter price of Ma chicken, and the domestic price of Ma chicken quietly rose. In some areas, the single-day increase rate was nearly 0.8 yuan/kg.

According to the analysis of institutional data, in recent days, the domestic mainstream price of Ma chicken has risen sharply from 5.28 yuan/kg to about 6.04 yuan/kg. In some markets, the price of Ma chicken has reached 6.5 yuan/kg, and the market has strengthened against the trend. In the short term, the price of Ma chicken still has a slight upward trend. However, due to the slow progress of consumption recovery in various places, the follow-up performance of consumption is still under pressure and superimposed. After the price of Ma chicken has risen, the farming has a shed mood.

Third, the soybean meal fluctuated and the sorghum went down!

1February came to an end, and the domestic spot soybean meal market fluctuated strongly. However, the market generally still has a bearish mood! According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, the soybean meal price in domestic mainstream coastal oil plants is 4670 yuan/ton, in Shandong, and 4650 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, while it is 4750 yuan/ton in Guangdong coastal oil plants, and the price of mainstream oil plants is raised by 10~20 yuan/ton, so the soybean meal price shows a strong trend of shock!

According to the analysis of insiders, the soybean meal market fluctuated strongly. On the one hand, due to the influence of international factors, the price of soybean meal rose with the market, which also aggravated the sentiment of domestic oil plants that the price was quite high, and the spot soybean meal market rebounded slightly. On the other hand, the domestic catering industry is deserted, the soybean oil in oil plants is not smooth, the price of soybean oil is lower, the profit margin of mainstream oil plants is falling, the cost of imported soybeans is higher, and the price sentiment is getting stronger!

Therefore, under the support of many parties, the price of soybean meal fluctuates strongly. However, due to1February, the scale of imported soybeans arrived in Hong Kong was nearly 9 10/00000 tons. Recently, the distribution price of imported soybeans generally dropped by 20~50 yuan/ton, among which the delivery price of soybeans in Tianjin port dropped to 5460 yuan/ton, and the price in Rizhao port in Shandong province dropped to 5460 yuan/ton.

At present, the operating rate of domestic mainstream oil plants is maintained at a high level, and the average weekly crushing scale of sample oil plants is nearly 2 million tons, and the performance of soybean meal accumulation in oil plants is increasing day by day. However, with the approach of New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays, the demand for stocking in the downstream market is gradually ending, and the production capacity of feed enterprises is falling, and the cautious mood of demand is heating up. Therefore, the price of soybean meal is still at risk of weak operation!

However, in the sorghum market, the demand side was weak, and the price of sorghum in the producing areas fluctuated downward. Among them, in Inner Mongolia, the delivery price of sorghum dropped to about 2.02 yuan/kg, and the price fluctuated weakly. In Chaoyang market, Liaoning, the delivery price of sorghum was 1.95 yuan/kg, which was about 4.9% lower than that at the beginning of the month!

At present, after the peak of sorghum market, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level is only1~ 20%. As the price of coarse grain at the grass-roots level continues to fall, the price of coarse grain in some areas has dropped to around 1.75~ 1.8 yuan/kg, and farmers' reluctance to sell has intensified, and the market performance is relatively sluggish! On the demand side, with the arrival of the end of the year, domestic mainstream wineries have successively completed the demand for stocking at the end of the year, and the inventory of enterprises is relatively loose. The enthusiasm for further price increase and replenishment is general, superimposed, the price of imported sorghum is low, the traders' sentiment of shipping on rallies is getting stronger, and the demand side is lacking. However, due to the restrictions of imported sorghum, the domestic sorghum price lacks support!

In addition, since the second half of 2022, due to the long-term influence of the mask problem, the catering industry has been depressed, the mood of residents in hosting banquets has deteriorated, the consumption of alcohol has been sluggish, and the market has been dominated by home demand. However, after the release of the mask problem, residents have "turned to Yang" one after another, and the recovery of the catering industry has increased, and the household consumption is not high. Before the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the winery was weak, which will further limit the rebound of sorghum prices!

When New Year's Day strikes, the price of pigs drops sharply, eggs and hemp chickens rise, and soybean meal shocks sorghum. What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the picture comes from the Internet!