Many excellent professionals are not talking about their ability, but their ability to think. Everyone says that someone "does things according to rules", the root of which lies in their strong thinking logic and can be really applied to practical work.

I'll make a list of these contents, and have a closer look-if I understand all the reasons, I'll see how to use them! Supposedly, as long as you train for a long time, these thinking logics can be deeply engraved in your mind and form instinct. However, what can really be used is still rare.

So, I will record these contents in order of my own deficiency.

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First, closed loop: start and finish, cycle

In management discipline, there is a management tool (or way of thinking) called "PDCA cycle". Its biggest function is "continuous improvement", which is applicable to all aspects of enterprise management, such as product research and development, human resource management, project management and so on. It is also suitable for personal management, and I am currently experimenting.

P is Plan. Plan before you do something, know what the goal is, what action to take, and what risks to avoid. No matter how simple the plan is, it is better than nothing. Making a plan consciously can train my planning consciousness. For me, having a plan can greatly alleviate the "feeling of being at a loss".

D, that is, Do. Execution is the most lacking trait of many people: great ideas, perfect plans and all the resources are in place, but they just can't move! For example, my example, whether because of procrastination or perfectionism, ultimately boils down to the issue of execution. The only way to get yourself moving is to scold yourself and then get started by doing it.

C is Check. In the process of implementation, we should have the consciousness of stopping to check and control variables at any time. In operation, "flexibility" is the basic requirement, and blind implementation is not advisable. To be flexible, you have to make a regular resumption, maybe every month, every week, every day, or even the next moment. There are only two kinds of results: good experience and bad lessons.

A is Act. Because it takes brains to think about these problems, we can't waste them. We should standardize these experiences and lessons and form the next action plan. Good experience should be absorbed, and the trodden pit should be stepped over. Thus, a new round of PDCA is produced.

The practical application of "closed-loop" consciousness lies in "cycle", and its greatest influence should be "spiral rise".

second, experiment: dare to try, will try

the knowledge and experience gained, and try to prove that it is feasible and valuable. Unproven knowledge and experience are all empty talk. Therefore, we must experiment and speak with the results.

in my work experience, I have been dealing with product research and development posts, and one of the test methods that has been deeply influenced is "A/B Test". For example, we are going to iterate a new page, but we are not sure about the naming effect of an icon, so we should put the two schemes together, and whichever one we like will prevail. This is a typical "A/B Test", which is very simple and practical.

At the same time, "experiment" should run through all strategies, whether it is organizational management, product research and development, or personal management, we should constantly try new schemes, and collect effective feedback through constant trial and error to ensure that the final result is "compared and demonstrated". The more "experiments", the closer the result is to correctness.

Edison has a good saying-"I didn't fail, I just found 1, unsuccessful ways".

Third, data: Data tell the truth

Many people make decisions and speak by feeling-words like "almost", "I think", "estimate" and "maybe" ... are too easy to appear in the population of China. The reason lies in the lack of attention to data, or the inability to effectively use data.

it took me a lot of slapping before I suddenly realized the importance of data, and the use of data was gradually established and enriched. Behind the rigorous personality is the support of a set of data systems, and every optimization comes from the truth provided by the data.

data management, first do a good job of data embedding. Buried points, mainly focus on these aspects:

manpower: to do personal management, just one person, there is nothing to consider. When it comes to collaboration, it depends on the number of people, strengths/weaknesses (which can be scored), intimacy (scored), social background (scored) and so on. In short, the digitization of human resources, one is to list indicators, and the other is the scoring system, so that qualitative as far as possible into quantitative.

Time: Everyone spends 24 hours a day, which is fair to everyone. The difference is reflected in the utilization rate of 24 hours. To do a good job of time statistics, the core index is the input-output ratio in time. Just in the "playing mobile phone" item, you can check the time occupied by each APP, and then look at the income of each APP, which behaviors are really valuable.

funds: bookkeeping is the basis of all kinds of financial knowledge. Without bookkeeping, you have no feeling about money from the beginning, so what about financial management? Therefore, the first step in the data analysis of funds is to do a good job of bookkeeping. It doesn't matter if you are too lazy to remember. It is convenient to unify the income and expenditure channels to Alipay, which can automatically keep accounts and get an annual bill at the end of the year.

The training of data thinking can be divided into three steps:

1. Establish an index system

Data is easy to find, but what I need and what I need is redundant, all of which must be thought out in advance, so "index" is the most important.

besides the collection of multiple indicators, the construction of the system needs three comparison dimensions: comparison with oneself, comparison with competitors and comparison with the market.

2. Collecting data

After the indicators are established, data is allowed to enter this system. One is to bury the data well, the other is to find a summary analysis tool, and the third is to generate a report (preferably with automatic reminder).

3. Optimization

The word "optimization" here has two meanings: one is optimization in action, and the other is optimization in indicators.

the first one: the indicators are ok, and the figures are true. The problem reflected is the need to optimize the next action.

second: there is no problem in measures and implementation, and the figures are correct, but the indicators can't be reached, or it is easy to reach the indicators, that is, the indicators are problematic and unreasonable, and either the values are changed or the indicators are changed.

fourth, logical chain: people who know logic should not be too terrible

The word "logic" is very empty, most people have heard it, but few people can treat logic rationally, let alone skillfully use it.

academically speaking, logic includes formal logic and dialectical logic. Formal logic is divided into induction and deduction; Dialectical logic contains contradiction and symmetry.

induction can be understood as a scientist-finding out the reasons for a large number of experimental results and rising to a scientific theory.

Deduction can be understood as detective-according to known theories, starting from phenomena, inferring results.

Dialectics, its content is complex, and it is difficult to sum it up at once. It is recommended to read through Selected Works of Mao Zedong.

The meaning of logical chain is to start from a certain node and explore forward and backward respectively. The longer the chain, the more you can grasp the essence of things.

1. ask more "why": including evidence and qualifications, that is, "how to prove this conclusion, what is the major premise"? Exploring the reasons is helpful to understand the root of the problem.

2. Ask a few more "then": firstly, there will be several results; secondly, what are their respective limiting conditions; thirdly, what are their respective trigger probabilities? Digging deep into the results is helpful to put forward the action plan.

people who understand logic can always adopt relatively reasonable strategies to implement according to the existing situation, and exchange the minimum cost for the highest income.

v. decision tree: eliminate interference and pursue accuracy

When designing products, especially when it comes to user operation, you are certainly familiar with the concept of "decision tree". Starting from the top design, each module can be divided into several branches and eventually form a huge tree structure.

There are references for each division. For example, when considering career choice, you can list age, interest, ability, salary, rank, etc.

The closer you get to the top, the higher the weight of the reference basis. For example, salary is the most important thing. If you don't consider the salary below 3, yuan a month, you can eliminate a large number of interference items when faced with many opportunities.

When the reference basis changes, it is necessary to adjust the decision tree. For example, if the rank is more important than the supervisor and manager, then look at the position at the director level.

in a word, the function of decision tree, in the final analysis, is to eliminate, and what is important is accurate results.

VI. Time: No one can escape from changing

The biggest impact of time series is that everything will change, which may be the same from a certain node, but as time goes on, there will definitely be obvious changes.

Therefore, standing still is firmly opposed, and actively facing new changes is the basic attitude of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.

The characteristics of time series can be viewed from three angles:

1. Trend: In mathematical analysis, it is a long-term monotonous state (increasing or decreasing), and the point where the trend changes is called "inflection point".

the stock market graph can best illustrate this feature: the stock price changes frequently in a single trading day, but as time goes on, for example, one month or one year, you can clearly see the overall trend of this stock.

Therefore, we must stand in an environment with a long time span to gain insight into the change of the trend, and then what we can do is to "follow the trend". For example, Yuan Shikai turned against the Qing Dynasty and became the first person with real power in the Republic of China. Calling himself emperor against the trend, he died of depression and hatred.

2. Seasons: short-term fluctuation rules, such as rainfall meters and electricity meters, are typical seasonal performances. Moreover, in reality, seasons and trends are combined with each other: take a long time to look at trends; Look at the changes in Gu Feng at a fixed time.

3. Period: a long-term fluctuation is called "periodic change". There is a rule in macroeconomics that an economic crisis occurs about ten years, and ten years is the cycle of economic prosperity and recession.

those who have a sense of periodicity are higher than those who have a tendency to think. Because the trend has an end point, when the megatrend rises, we need to be vigilant enough to wait for the turning point, and once the situation changes, we should immediately pull away.

Therefore, we need to focus on training our awareness of time series. The purpose is also very simple: one is to predict the future trend, the other is to identify abnormal situations, and the third is to set up a safe area. But it is difficult to achieve, and those who can achieve it have proved themselves in history.

VII. Relevance: Find the hidden association in the complicated data

When there is no necessary relationship, we will find the relevant relationship.

in reality, all kinds of data and things are complicated, especially in today's "big data era". People are overwhelmed with complicated information, not to mention good processing methods.

To find correlation, we only look at the data correlation between the two most significant elements: positive correlation, negative correlation, uncorrelation and nonlinear correlation. The most convenient viewing tool is the coordinate axis, and the related charts in Excel can be directly applied.

Of course, rigorous decision-making can't just look at the relevance of a certain dimension, it's just a good perspective.

VIII. Funnel: It takes a long time to get thin hair

All operators know this model: AARRR model, a typical funnel thinking.

Acquisition: acquisition

Activation

Retention

Revenue

Refer: dissemination

each layer has a certain capacity, and the lower the funnel, the smaller the capacity; The ratio between each layer is the conversion rate.

correspondingly, what we can do is to expand the capacity; The second is to increase the proportion. That is, increase the amount of data and improve the conversion rate. The same is true whether it is user management in enterprises or income promotion in individuals.

Therefore, the importance of "laying a solid foundation" should be emphasized at all times.

IX. Matrix: Quantifiable indicators are good indicators

What impressed me the most was the "Boston Management Matrix", which was frequently used in later work, mainly for making choices.

according to the concept of BCG Matrix, each business can simply set the matrix according to the two dimensions of "market share" and "growth rate".

correspondingly, this matrix will generate four quadrants:

low share+low growth: thin dog business

low share+high growth: problem business

high share+low growth: dairy business

high share+high growth: star business

After determining the nature of the business, cut off the "thin dog" and adjust it.

other matters can also be applied: first, identify the two most critical dimensions, then list the four quadrants, and finally evaluate each module and make a decision.

1. Classification: Birds of a feather flock together, and things are grouped together

The most basic working thinking is classification. No matter how complicated it is, it can be separated and must be scored. Because one of the requirements of operation is accuracy, the premise of accuracy is classification. Only by subdivision can we accurately grasp all the details and locate them so as to make decisions.

when it comes to personal management, it's the same: fitness maintenance, thinking improvement, skill training, interpersonal strengthening, etc., even trivial matters can be put into each bucket.

the function of classification is to sort out the context and make an action plan accurately.

it should be the most basic thinking.