2007 cotton price analysis report (2)
Researchers: Wang Jianguo Date: 2007-1-14
Information analysis:
1, the state storage is significant: the storage price is generally the future policy floor price, the state is unlikely to be below the purchase price below the Sell cotton. Spot 12700 points without saying, plus 300 yuan out of the border freight, the mainland cotton prices should stand steady 13000 yuan.
2, the contradiction between supply and demand exists consistently, the increase in production does not offset the growth in demand, prices are supported.
3, the warm winter weather heralds more natural disasters, directly affected by agriculture.
4, other planting commodities prices rose sharply, the cotton price support.
Technical analysis:
1, international cotton prices are in the fifth year of a nine-year rising phase.
2, from the measurement analysis: 58-42 + 49 = 66 58-49 + 58 = 67 so 67 cents is fully able to see, the volatility of 17 cents, corresponding to the Zhengzhou Cotton Index: 166/177 * 17 = 2823/3009, the Zhengzhou Cotton Index this round of the bottom of the market: 13171 points, corresponding to the high point should be: 15994/16180 points. According to the spot and futures basis difference of 1,000 points, the spot corresponding to the high point of 14994/15180 points.
3, highs to highs cycle for four years, 2003 corresponds to four years after the high time should be 2007, so there will be a high in 2007.
4. Through the chance analysis method and MMK analysis method, it can be determined that international speculative funds are establishing more long positions in cotton futures.
Conclusion: cotton prices will rise in 2007.
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Cotton prices in 2007 will rise steadily in general Bookmark to Hexun.com Extracts
The latest report completed by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) predicts that, affected by supply and demand as well as prices in the international market, in 2007 domestic Cotton prices will rise steadily, and the possibility of drastic fluctuations is relatively small.
The report pointed out that the 2007-2008 production increased again there is a certain degree of difficulty. International Cotton Advisory Committee recently released forecast data show that China's cotton planting area in 2007-2008 with the previous year basically the same, but due to the yield from 1209 kilograms per hectare in the previous year to 1155 kilograms, resulting in China's cotton production will fall to 6.21 million tons.
Since the textile industry maintains rapid development, the domestic demand for cotton increases. 2006, despite the impact of Europe and the United States and other factors such as restrictions on China's textiles, but due to the implementation of the textile export market diversification strategy, it is expected that in 2007 the textile exports will continue to have a high growth in the domestic demand for cotton will maintain a substantial increase.
The report predicts that the international market price of cotton directly affects the trend of domestic cotton prices. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture January report is expected to 2006-2007 global cotton production growth is lower than the increase in consumption, exports are significantly reduced and lower than import demand, which will have an impact on the international market price increases. At the same time, due to the international market corn, wheat and other agricultural products in tight supply, the market price to maintain a high level of operation, which may lead to a decline in the area of cotton planting, driving cotton prices higher.
In addition, although all aspects of China's textile exports are expected to maintain high growth, with the side of the price, and the trend of RMB appreciation will increase export costs to some extent, squeezing the profits of enterprises, which will inevitably affect the ability of enterprises to bear the rising prices of cotton, constituting the constraints on the rise in cotton prices, prompting the price to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend.