1, large-scale development is the mainstream, but it is by no means the withdrawal of free-range households.
However, the free-range households will be upgraded, and some with good breeding concept and high technical level will grow bigger and bigger, forming a scale, while some with poor breeding concept and losing money may accelerate their withdrawal. For example, the current pig industry has accelerated the industrialization process of the pig industry under the impact of the epidemic.
2. The mode of adding dependent households by the company
At present, there are breeders for raising chickens and contract pigs for raising pigs. The rapid expansion of the group's pig farms needs to bring farmers, who need high-quality pigs and chickens, as well as risk sharing and technical support. In the era of cooperation, we will definitely win.
3. The aquaculture wastewater is discharged up to the standard, which increases the environmental protection cost.
With the continuous development of aquaculture, pollution and environment are getting worse. In recent years, the state has continuously rectified the aquaculture industry. Forcibly shut down farms that fail to meet the discharge standards, delimit restricted areas, forbidden areas and planned breeding communities, reduce breeding noise and prohibit wastewater discharge. For the sustainable development of the environment, the investment in environmental protection facilities will account for a large proportion of aquaculture costs.
4. Restrictions and prohibitions on food safety and drug resistance.
With the improvement of people's living standards and the pursuit of healthy development of human beings, the requirements for meat products are getting higher and higher. The country's requirements for meat, eggs and milk are also constantly improving, so it is imperative to limit resistance and prohibit resistance. The laying hen industry has begun to ban drug resistance, and antibiotic residues are not allowed in eggs. After July 2020, the pig industry is forbidden to add antibiotics to feed, and the requirements for feed additives are strict, and only Chinese medicine additives are allowed.
5. Intensive, mechanized and energy-saving
Compared with domestic aquaculture, the modernization of agriculture, animal husbandry and aquaculture in Europe and America is relatively high. In America, one person can manage 3000 pigs. At home, with the increase of domestic labor costs, the degree of mechanization is getting higher and higher, and the degree of intensive farming will be accelerated.
6. Brand development
In the next 5- 10 years, high-quality brands of meat, eggs and milk will emerge, private independent brands of meat will be gradually enriched, the breeding system of local breeding pigs and local chickens will be perfect, and consumers will increasingly favor big brands of meat and eggs.
7. Characteristic breeding: family pasture and tourism are deeply combined.
With the development of domestic tourism, more and more city people want to experience rural life, and farmhouse music and fisherman's music are getting better and better. In the new era, rural and modern family pastures are combined with tourism, and the development direction is rich and colorful.
8. Aquaculture in internet plus
2 1 century is the century of the internet, and any industry can have a relationship with the internet. The development of e-commerce and express delivery industry has promoted the progress of other industries including aquaculture. Green pollution-free products are combined with the Internet to increase sales.
9, industrial integration, interest chain extension
If you want to improve the value of products, extending the industrial chain is a way. From simple farming to recycling to slaughter to food, the original farming end will be turned into multiple income transfer stations, so that more people can participate and benefit from it.
1, the development prospect of beef cattle breeding is good. Beef cattle are precocious, strong in disease resistance, high in fecundity and fast in turnover. Generally, calves produced every year can benefit from slaughter that year. Cattle can use a lot of coarse feed such as grass and straw with strong herbivore ability and developed rumen, and the feeding cost is low. If cattle aged 8- 12 months are fattened quickly, each cow can earn 200-300 yuan in 3 months. Experts predict that cattle raising will be a national gold industry with deep development, large-scale breeding, comprehensive processing and export to earn foreign exchange in the next few years.
2. Sheep industry has a broad market prospect. In recent years, mutton has the advantage of monopolizing the "seller's market" of food, and its price has been rising. Raising 1 ewe generally gives birth to 2 fetuses per year (2-4 each), with an annual profit of 400-600 yuan.
3. pigeon breeding. The cost of raising pigeons is much lower than that of raising chickens, and it is simple, with less investment, low cost, less grain consumption, quick effect and high economic benefits. It is a promising aquaculture industry and a good project to get rich quickly, which is suitable for state-owned farmers, forest farms, pastures and professional households. According to the survey, raising a pair of breeding pigeons, compared with raising a laying hen and a fattening pig, can make a profit of 99.5 yuan a year, which is 22 yuan more than raising a fat pig and 2.2 times higher than raising a laying hen.
Although everyone raises meat food, in fact, raising fish and pigs can also make money, but raising pigs is risky at present, but the profit is high and it is worth investing. At the same time, the state also has subsidies. Raising more than 3,000 pigs is subsidized by 800,000, which is worth a try.
I am engaged in aquaculture, and the aquaculture industry will still be in the development stage in the next 5 10 years. Although it is not as fast as overseas aquaculture, we have our own advantages in developing aquaculture and the overall prospect is optimistic. Because I raise sheep myself, I will focus on the prospect of raising sheep in the next 5 10 years.
First, better breeds of mutton sheep can be cultivated.
I have to admit that there is no domestic mutton sheep breed that is particularly excellent than foreign ones. For example, Dorper sheep, Suffolk sheep, Charolais sheep, Dorset sheep and Boer goat abroad are all excellent breeds. In recent years, China has introduced excellent mutton sheep from abroad as hybrid parents, crossed with local sheep, and cultivated new varieties with strong reproductive ability and fast growth.
Two, strengthen the fattening production of mutton sheep and other supporting technologies.
General rural free-range farmers don't know the fattening technology of mutton sheep, while some large-scale sheep farms mainly rely on fattening mutton sheep for profit. The most common fattening of mutton sheep is house feeding, which can be matched with more reasonable fattening feed diet formula in the future to improve economic benefits.
Third, the mutton sheep industry is slowly transitioning to large-scale intensification.
In the future, all aquaculture (including mutton sheep industry) will gradually develop in the direction of scale and intensification. The advantage of this is that it can save the cost of breeding, improve the efficiency of breeding production, and avoid environmental pollution and resource waste caused by excessive dispersion of breeding.
Fourth, make effective use of the advantages of deep processing of livestock products.
For example, in sheep industry, except mutton, the rest of amniotic fluid, wool, sheepskin and sheep casing can achieve considerable economic benefits. We put these by-products through deep processing and let them play their respective benefits, which is also a good income.
Finally, it is concluded that the prospect of aquaculture will basically be in a stable development state in the next 5 10 years. Friends who want to engage in farming can start small, and then accumulate funds step by step or expand the scale of farming.
Breeding and planting are traditional industries, unlike the explosive and popular industries like the Internet and electronic technology, but their status is quite high. No matter how the society develops in the future, these two industries will always exist and will not be weakened; And with the efficient utilization of resources, the combination of farming and planting is also an inevitable trend.
Changes of aquaculture prospects in the next 5- 10 years 1. Standardization and scale: There are many scattered farms in China's aquaculture industry for a long time, especially many farms opened by the river in the past, which have caused great pollution to our environment and caused great trouble to the lives of residents. Especially after the livestock and poultry epidemic, aquaculture management in China will be more standardized. More large-scale farms will appear, and scientific and standardized aquaculture management will gradually occupy half of the aquaculture industry in China. However, this process will be carried out slowly, and many scattered farmers in mountainous areas will continue to exist until they can't stand the environmental protection and manure treatment problems required by the department and slowly quit.
2. Upgrade of free-range households: Just now, we said that our self-employed free-range households will be squeezed out by our large-scale farms due to problems such as insufficient technology, irregular management, substandard environmental protection treatment of feces, and insufficient funds. However, China is a big country, and the problem of rural farmers is an important issue. Helping villagers get rich and farming out of poverty are the project indicators. Many rural people have no other skills and can't find a way out, so they have to engage in farming in rural areas. Therefore, the free-range households will not quit the historical stage, but exist in a new farming mode that cooperates with the company. In this way, our farmers can make money, take less risks, and our livestock and poultry breeding industry is more standardized.
3. Environmental protection first, south pig and north pig, mechanization and intelligence: now many people left in rural areas are experienced technicians, and more and more young people are doing farming. Many of them used to work on big farms, and now they go out by themselves. The application of modern science and technology in our big companies is more, and mechanization and intelligence will become the new trend of aquaculture. Including Wen, the big brother of the aquaculture industry, they have realized remote monitoring of major pig farms across the country, accurately positioned each pig and established a pig farm database. But at present, more farms are in a backward state and need further growth. Our aquaculture researchers and breeders need to make greater efforts.
Food is the most important thing for people! In order to ensure the safety of our vegetable basket, every farmer and researcher has the responsibility. At present, the aquaculture industry in China is developing very rapidly, which leads to serious environmental problems. In recent years, environmental taxes and the ban on feeding have caused many farmers a headache. To predict the future breeding prospects, we should pay more attention to the following four points!
1. Environmental protection and greening: With the deterioration of the natural environment, the pollution caused by aquaculture should not be underestimated. In order to protect the environment, it is a natural choice to make aquaculture green.
2. Low profit: With a large amount of capital entering the aquaculture industry, with the improvement of aquaculture technology, the production performance will be greatly improved, and the aquaculture products are rich and diverse, and the supply is sufficient. Therefore, the era of profiteering in aquaculture has ended. With the delisting of small-scale farming, farmed products will not skyrocket and plummet, and it is a trend for farms to maintain low profits.
3. Energy-saving: The price of clean energy such as oil, gas and electricity is extremely high, which is unbearable for aquaculture enterprises. Low-priced coal is prohibited by environmental laws and regulations, and it will be a trend for farms to use energy-saving farming technologies such as heat generated by animals themselves.
4. Land resources: there is less and less land available for aquaculture, and the site is often affected by climate, topography, water sources and surrounding land resources, so the land resources suitable for aquaculture development are becoming more and more tense, and the shortage of farm land resources is the trend.
The product price fluctuates too much, which is closely related to the policy. Imported grain is tens of millions of tons, and the price is unstable to some extent, which is hard for the gods to predict.
What is the prospect of aquaculture in the next 5- 10 years?
With the improvement of living standards of Chinese residents, people should not only eat well, but also eat well, and the demand for meat food also increases. So the prospect of aquaculture in the next 5- 10 years is still good!
So, what should aquaculture be like in the next 5- 10 years?
First, farms are developing to standardization and scale, and rural free-range households are constantly upgrading.
More and more farms are developing in the direction of standardization and scale, and standardized and scale farms will gradually occupy the dominant position in China's aquaculture industry. According to the aquaculture situation in China, free-range farmers will not quit the aquaculture market in the next few decades. However, the free-range households will continue to upgrade and develop, and will eventually form standardization and scale. Finally, we will eliminate those free-range households with weak breeding awareness, irregular technical management, substandard environmental protection and insufficient funds.
Second, the environmental protection requirements for excreta and sewage discharge will be higher.
Many farms in China are built near residential areas, scenic spots, water sources and highways, which have caused great pollution to the surrounding residents and the environment, and even caused pollution and destruction to the environment and soil water sources. Therefore, the relevant government departments have rectified and closed unqualified sewage farms. Delineation of designated aquaculture areas has strict requirements for sewage discharge and other sewage facilities. Therefore, the investment of farms in environmental protection and sewage discharge will increase.
Third, the new model of "Internet plus aquaculture".
In the future, the farm will build an intelligent Internet breeding platform, a new farming model of farm+Internet plus e-commerce, integrate traditional aquaculture with the Internet, break the original geographical and information blockade restrictions, and further promote the rapid development of aquaculture.
Fourth: risks such as market conditions and major epidemics.
With the influx of foreign capital into aquaculture, the production performance and output of aquaculture will be significantly improved, and low profit may be the general trend of aquaculture. In addition, the influence of market conditions is also very great. At the same time, the risk of African swine fever, avian influenza and other major diseases is also very great!
Aquaculture has always been a hot topic, and there are many discussions, which are mainly divided into two factions: the first faction thinks that aquaculture has a good prospect and can be cultivated boldly; The other school thinks that the prospect of aquaculture is almost slim, there is no hope, and aquaculture has no future.
To predict the future of aquaculture in 5- 10 years, no one can say for sure. Let me talk about it according to the two factions.
The first camp: aquaculture has a good prospect in the next 5- 10, and can be farmed.
Cause analysis:
First of all, with the improvement of living standards, the demand for meat has increased.
In recent years, with the rapid development of our country, people's living standards have been continuously improved and greatly improved. From eating full before to eating well now, both material and spiritual pursuits have been greatly improved. Everyone's demand for meat at the dinner table is also increasing, and the demand is slowly increasing. Supply should keep up, so should supply. It is necessary to increase the aquaculture industry, so the aquaculture industry has a good prospect.
Second, technology is getting better and better and scientific breeding is developed.
With the continuous development of society, the aquaculture industry is also constantly improving and learning, and aquaculture is developing step by step to scale, intensive and scientific. Breeding personnel are also constantly learning the experience and technology of breeding, introducing advanced breeding equipment and machinery, minimizing the waste of resources, reducing the cost input, and finally obtaining the maximum profit income.
Third, the breeding is more standardized and the industrial chain is more perfect.
The previous farming, scattered and indigenous farming, consumed a lot of energy, manpower and material resources, but the final income was only a little. With the continuous development, the breeding industry is also constantly improving, improving the breeding norms and improving the breeding environment. At the same time, the industrial chain of aquaculture is also improving step by step, and the links such as feed, seedling raising, medicine and sales are all improving step by step, making the aquaculture industry better and better.
The second camp: the prospect of aquaculture in the next 5- 10 years is worrying, and it is unwilling to breed.
Cause analysis:
First: low profit and high cost.
With the development of society, more science and technology are applied to aquaculture, and there are more and more kinds of aquaculture. With the further improvement of aquaculture technology, the supply of aquaculture tends to be stable or even saturated, the price fluctuation will gradually stabilize, the profiteering scene of aquaculture will gradually disappear, and the profits of aquaculture will be greatly reduced.
Second: environmental protection and green development.
With the continuous increase of aquaculture, a large number of wastewater, sewage and feces are illegally discharged, which leads to the deterioration of the natural environment, and the pollution caused by aquaculture can not be underestimated. In order to protect the environment, the environmental protection pressure of aquaculture has become greater and the inspection has become stricter. It is a natural choice to make aquaculture green.
Third, there is a shortage of land resources.
With the rapid development of society, available land resources are becoming less and less, especially aquaculture, and the location of aquaculture is often affected by climate, topography, water sources and surrounding land resources, so the land resources suitable for aquaculture development are becoming more and more tense, and the shortage of farm land resources is the trend.
abstract
With the rapid development of social times, the aquaculture industry will also undergo earth-shaking changes in the next 5- 10 years. As people in the aquaculture industry, we should always pay attention to social changes and keep up with the pace of social changes, so the aquaculture industry still has a good prospect; If you keep standing still, it will be difficult to develop.
Some people will have rivers and lakes, some people will want to eat, and what everyone eats is either planting or breeding, so planting and breeding will develop with the development of people's lives.
It is conceivable that with the continuous progress of science and technology and the continuous improvement of the cultural level of the domestic people, aquaculture will be carried out in a more professional, intensive and information-based mode in the future.
We can think about how we used to farm, not long ago, but twenty years ago. For example, in rural areas, it is not that every household raises pigs, but basically 2-3 households will definitely have one. The most important thing is that the rural conditions were not very good at that time, and the income sources of farmers were limited. Therefore, by increasing various sideline businesses to increase income, farming is an important project to increase sideline income.
At that time, the places where pigs were raised were basically in their own pigsty. A family basically raises two pigs, and even more can raise more than three. So at that time, it was in the form of retail pig raising, and it was also these retail pig raising people who got pigs to eat. But now let's see, what is the situation of raising pigs now? Large enterprises are raising pigs. At first, Ding Lei of Netease started to raise pigs. Now I hear that JD.COM is doing the same. And which large domestic pig-raising enterprises, such as Wenshi and Shuanghui, do not use technology to raise pigs?
Especially after the bottom of pig prices last year, a large number of small-scale aquaculture enterprises or retail investors were eliminated, and these large-scale aquaculture enterprises were still expanding their farms and increasing their stocks when others were eliminated.
Therefore, aquaculture must be managed as an enterprise in the later period, and intensification and automation will be more and more applied to aquaculture industry.
Does that mean that farmers have no room for farming in the future?
Future farmers must be called new professional farmers. For example, some have transferred hundreds of acres of land for planting, and some have professional breeding techniques for breeding. As long as there is really good technology, there is still room for breeding. After all, the cake is so big that two or three companies can't eat it. But higher and higher technical standards are definitely indispensable. Therefore, strengthening technical literacy is what should be paid attention to. In addition, many rural areas have set up cooperatives to keep warm. Under the big group, many people will turn into professional technical forces and become technicians.
What is the prospect of aquaculture in the next 5 10 years? Nowadays, aquaculture is an era in which small-scale aquaculture and large-scale aquaculture coexist. If either party withdraws rashly, it will inevitably affect the price of poultry and livestock, which is naturally unfavorable to consumers. So this small-scale and large-scale farming method will last for several years.
But things are always changing, so is aquaculture. Take last year's non-epidemic situation as an example. Who would have thought that the shortage of pork in China reached about100000 tons last year due to non-epidemic reasons? The price of live pigs in this year also rose from the normal 7 8 yuan to the present 16 18 yuan.
Therefore, although the aquaculture industry can be expected in the future, its changes are endless. As for the prospect of aquaculture in the next 5,654,38+00 years, I think small-scale aquaculture and large-scale aquaculture will coexist, but generally speaking, this large-scale aquaculture is expanding step by step. As for the specific details, Li Zi gives a rough estimate here for your reference:
Since plums are pigs, let's talk about the current breeding situation here:
As far as the current aquaculture industry is concerned, rural free-range households still occupy the mainstream position, and according to official statistics, rural free-range households account for more than half of the national pig industry, so they are still the guarantee for the slaughter of pigs in the country and the new force in the pig industry.
So is plums. At the beginning, plums were bred with two sows because of their weak potential, which was a typical rural free-range household. After years of struggle, Meizi now has a small-scale farm, with more than 80 sows and an annual slaughter of pigs 1000.
Although my farm is still developing semi-scale farming, the farming equipment is relatively backward. But in the near future, in the next 5 10 years, I intend to re-expand the pig farm and turn it into an automated or intelligent pig farm. Because such a pig farm not only saves labor, but also benefits the management of the pig farm and saves more costs.
Therefore, Li Zi believes that in the next few years, whether it is raising chickens, pigs or cattle and sheep, ai intelligent pig raising will be the main breeding method, and more large-scale pig farms will emerge.
To sum up, in the next 5 10 years, the prospect of aquaculture will still be the main trend of scale, but in general, the development of rural free-range households can not be ignored. In addition, several reasons are also the trend of aquaculture in the future. Let me say:
First, the company+base+farmers are the main breeding methods.
The development and survival in the capital market is nothing more than big fish eat small fish, and small fish eat shrimp as the main way of cooperation. Naturally, the same is true of aquaculture. Because some large-scale breeding companies occupy some absolute advantages in capital, technology and market, they are completely in a rolling advantage for some rural free-range households.
However, due to the lack of market analysis, capital and technology, some free-range farmers in rural areas have made rapid progress in aquaculture, so they bear great risks in aquaculture. Therefore, only the cooperation between large-scale breeding companies and rural free-range households is a win-win situation and a way to survive.
Although some companies are developing with farmers now, farmers can only earn a little farming fee because most of their profits are on the company's side, so this cooperation model is naturally unfavorable to farmers now. With the running-in of aquaculture in the next 5 10 years, it is believed that a suitable running-in point will be found between large companies and farmers. Only in this way can the two sides develop together, which is also the development direction of real company+base+farmer in the future.
Second, there will be more and more large-scale farms in the future, but the proportion of rural free-range households can still be maintained at one third.
Science and technology are the primary productive forces, and aquaculture is also the primary productive forces. With the rapid development of domestic 5g, many factories, shops and other things tend to be intelligent, so aquaculture is no exception.
So in the next 5 10 years, some ai technologies will become more and more mature, and many farmers can raise pigs quickly and effectively in the office. For example, the disease control, feed consumption and disinfection facilities of pigs are all in computers, and under this intelligent pig raising, fewer and fewer workers are used in farms, and the breeding efficiency is getting higher and higher.
But generally speaking, it still needs a process for China pig industry to move towards free range completely. Because some farmers can't keep up with the breeding rhythm, they can only realize it step by step, so it is unrealistic to say that the breeding industry is completely free-range after 5 10 years. In the future, large-scale farming will still dominate, and rural free-range households will still have a place.
To sum up, with the development of society and the continuous progress of people, some high-tech products are constantly introduced, so the life of our rural people will also change greatly in the next 5 10 years. Life is still like this, and so is the future aquaculture industry. For example, cows, pigs and chickens will enter an unprecedented era, which is what people call the era of big data. All kinds of high-tech farming machinery and farming concepts are also brand-new. At that time, some diseases of livestock were also controlled to some extent. Therefore, in the next 5 10 years, aquaculture has a broad prospect, from which farmers and consumers can gain great benefits.