Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development showed that the national hog price has been falling for 16 weeks, with a cumulative drop of 31.7 percent.
How is the current hog supply situation? What is the profit and loss situation of the pig industry? When will the downward cycle of hog prices stop?
Currently, the country's hog production and supply is adequate, but the requirements are shrinking, and the time surplus is more obvious.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine Seminar researcher Zhu Zengyong told reporters.
From the production side, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in January this year, the national pig slaughtering volume increased by 23.6% year-on-year, in February the pig slaughtering volume increased by 8.2% year-on-year, from January to February the fixed-point slaughtering enterprises slaughtering volume of pigs increased by 30.8% year-on-year.
At the end of 2021, the country had 449 million hogs in stock, an increase of 10.5 percent year-on-year, and these stocked hogs will be slaughtered and marketed one after another from January to June this year.
From this projection, the pork market supply in the first half of the year is still at a high level.
From the spending side, pork spending seasonal decline superimposed on the impact of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic, pork spending after the Spring Festival is significantly weaker, hog production and supply is sufficient, but the requirements of the contraction, the time period of the surplus is more obvious.
From the point of view of the breeding sows inventory, since the beginning of July last year, continued for eight months of the year-on-year decline, but by the rebound in pig prices and the impact of reserve sows to replenish, breeding sows are still higher than 41 million, the same period of time by the outdated sows production capacity continuous culling, breeding sows breeding effectiveness has been restored to the level of the level of the African swine fever before.
Zhu Zengyong estimated that since March, the national breeding sows stock reduction may increase, the second quarter of the breeding sows will gradually fall to a fair capacity range.
March 22, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a professional part of the harmony of the meeting, requesting the strengthening of the whole industry chain information monitoring and early warning, actively leading the financial institutions to increase the credit policy support, solid breeding land and environmental protection and other long-term support policies, the precise implementation of the control of pig production capacity and frozen pork storage adjustments, continue to grasp the African swine fever normative prevention and control to enhance the stability and healthy development of pig production, and to assist the development of the industry, the development of the industry. Aid farm households to get through the difficult times.
The decline in the price of hogs has gradually narrowed
The surplus supply of commercial hogs is expected to ease in June this year, and the supply and demand for pork will shift to a basic equilibrium, and the price of hogs will have a seasonal rebound.
Zhu Zengyong said.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the 500 county marketplaces and collection points show that in the fourth week of March, the national average price of 12.52 yuan per kilogram of hogs, a drop of 0.8% from the previous year, a year-on-year drop of 54.4%, and a cumulative decline of 31.7% over the last 16 weeks; the average price of 22.38 yuan per kilogram of pork, a drop of 1.2% from the previous year, a year-on-year drop of 49.2%, a cumulative decline of 22.6%; average price per kilogram of piglets 23.86 yuan, down 1.2% from the ring, down 74.4% year-on-year.
Based on the cost of production data in recent years, the pig production break-even point of the pig-grain ratio of about 7:1.
When the pig-grain ratio is less than 5:1, considered to be entering the excessive fall of the first warning zone.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the national hog-grain ratio was 4.90:1 in February, 0.51 points lower than in January.
Since March, the central and local authorities have fully launched pork storage, easing the situation of excessively rapid decline in pig prices, which have gradually narrowed.
Zhu Zengyong told reporters that from the recent point of view, pig prices are expected to stabilize, departments such as the northeastern region of pig prices have rebounded slightly.
Recently, because of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control, the department of the road is not good, the department of the regional hogs out of the block, coupled with the breeding end of the serious loss of the farm, the farmers price willing to sell willing to strengthen the hogs out of the motivation is not high, the slaughtering enterprises to purchase the difficulty of the market, the market wait and see, bullish feelings strengthened.
The market supply and demand situation is gradually reversed, is expected to drive the national pig prices to stop falling.
However, because of the spending, especially out of the spending affected, the spending side is difficult to support the continuous rebound of pig prices, pig prices are generally expected to stabilize at a low level.
Following the new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control situation improved, the late pressed hogs or concentrated out of the pig, pig prices are also facing a certain downward pressure.
Today's pig prices are lower than 2019 at the same time, but higher than 2018 at the same time, it is estimated that there is not much room for landing in the late stage.
The end of the second quarter, by the beginning of the year piglet supply ring landing impact, June future commodity pig supply surplus situation is expected to ease, pork supply and demand will turn to the basic equilibrium, pig prices will produce a seasonal rebound, the second half of the pig prices may be generally dazzled by the cost line of fluctuations in the high and low.
Since June 2003, China's hog price fluctuations have experienced four complete cycles.
These four complete cycles are 36 months, 36 months, 59 months and 49 months, each complete cycle contains a rising time, down time.
The 5th cycle that is running now has been in an upward channel for 27 months from June 2018 to the end of August 2020, and has been in a downward channel for a total of 19 months from September 2020 to the present, totaling 46 months, which is comparatively close to the last cycle.
This signals that the decline may have come to an end.