At present, the price of rapeseed has reached 3.50 yuan a catty. It can be said that in just two months, the price of rapeseed has increased by 1000 yuan per ton. Farmers should be happy. Such a high price of rapeseed can be as beneficial as planting rice, but there are very few farmers planting rapeseed in Hubei this year. Let's talk about the market situation of rapeseed in 2022.
The price of rapeseed in 2022
The main purpose of rapeseed is to extract oil. In recent years, the overall price fluctuates greatly. In 20021year, the price of rapeseed in China reached a low point in the past two years, and it is expected to pick up in 2022.
Recently, the international demand for rapeseed is strong, and at the same time, the inventory of rapeseed is concentrated in the hands of a few traders, which directly pushes up the international price of rapeseed. Before the new products are listed in 20021year, the international rapeseed price may reach a new high.
According to the estimation of Chuck Penner, a Canadian commodity research analyst, it is estimated that Canadian farmers may increase their rapeseed planting by more than 6% this spring due to the record high price of rapeseed this year. This will probably play a positive role in stabilizing the international rapeseed price from 2002/kloc-0 to 2022.
Domestically, it is estimated that the price of rapeseed will be around 2-3 yuan per catty in 2022. It is estimated that the output of rapeseed this year will reach the highest point in the past decade, and its planting requires higher soil. (For reference only, please pay attention to the local market price.)
In addition, Sichuan and Zhejiang have caught up with Hubei in area and yield. If Hubei continues to implement straw returning to the field, the field will not be plowed or green manure will be planted to improve the soil pH, Hubei will lose its status as a big rape province forever.
Due to the decrease of planting area, the price of rapeseed in 2022 will not be lower than 3.50 yuan, and the selling price of farmers may remain around 3 yuan.
Analysis on Supply and Demand of Rapeseed Oil Market in China in 2022
Although China is the world's largest producer of rapeseed, the annual gap between production and consumption is still over 2 million tons. While judging the trend in 2022, we also have to look at the current supply and demand market situation of rapeseed market.
1, rapeseed production reached a high point in recent ten years.
From 2012 to 2020, the overall output of rapeseed in China fluctuated greatly. In 20 1 1-20 15 years, the output of rapeseed in China increased continuously, and decreased to13128,000 tons in 20 16 years, and then increased continuously.
In 2020, China's rapeseed output was14,049,000 tons, an increase of 4. 18% compared with 20 19, and the rapeseed output reached a high point in the past decade.
2. The output of rapeseed oil decreased greatly.
From 2013 to 2020, the output of rapeseed oil in China fluctuated greatly. In 2020, the output of rapeseed oil in China was 5.536 million tons, which was significantly reduced by 12.79% compared with 20 19.
3. The import of rapeseed oil increased.
20 13-2020, the import of rapeseed oil in China showed a trend of first decline and then increase. In 2020, the import volume of rapeseed oil in China was1794,000 tons, an increase of 65.59% compared with 20 19, and the two-year growth rate reached 122.86%.
4, rapeseed oil consumption decline.
From 2013 to 2020, the consumption of rapeseed oil in China showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In 20 16, the consumption of rapeseed oil in China increased the most, reaching 36.67%; In 20 17, the consumption of rapeseed oil in China reached a high point of 8.65 million tons. In 2020, the consumption of rapeseed oil in China was 7.5 million tons, which was 1 1.76% lower than that in 20 19.
5. The overall price of rapeseed oil has declined.
In 2020-202 1 year, the overall market price of rapeseed oil in China showed a downward trend. In August of 20021year, the market price of rapeseed oil in China dropped to 16.3 1 yuan/kg, which was 0. 16 yuan/kg lower than that in July of 20021year and 0.53 yuan/kg lower than that in August of 2020, reaching.