This is Macron's second state visit to the United States after nearly four years, and he has become the only French president who has paid two state visits to the United States. This is also the first time that the Biden administration has received foreign leaders in the form of a state visit since it took office in 20021.
2 1 salute, elaborate luxury dinner and rich itinerary mark the highest state of diplomatic etiquette, and the United States seems impeccable in diplomatic etiquette. According to the itinerary disclosed by French media, after the bilateral summit and press conference on Thursday morning, Mark Long will attend a luncheon hosted by US Vice President Harris and Secretary of State Blinken at noon.
There was another "bright spot" that attracted the attention of the outside world that night, and that was the grand dinner hosted by the White House. According to Bloomberg News, the White House set Maine lobster, California wine, Astra caviar and Oregon blue cheese on the dinner menu, and even invited Grammy winner batiste to perform. According to reports, the number of guests invited to this state banquet is between 300 and 400, which is "one of the largest state banquets in modern American history".
However, compared with the grand welcoming ceremony and warm dinner of the White House, the progress of the negotiations between the United States and Europe on economic and trade issues has fallen into a rather "cold" situation, which has dimmed Macron's hope of achieving greater results in this "trip to the United States". It is widely believed that the main topic of Macron's "trip to the United States" will be the US Inflation Reduction Act, and he will try to persuade American leaders to relax the restrictions of this "unfriendly" bill that violates WTO rules in just a few days.
According to a French government spokesman, Macron's visit to the United States may also involve topics such as energy and space cooperation, Iranian nuclear agreement negotiations, Russia-Ukraine conflict, food security and climate issues. This can be found in the members of the delegation led by Macron. In addition to the "First Lady", Macron was accompanied by many senior French government officials, as well as business leaders and astronauts. The huge escort lineup highlights the importance attached by France.
Some people think that this shows that Macron's trip is not just an ordinary diplomatic visit, but he hopes to further promote the scope of transatlantic cooperation, explore the space for cooperation, and seek to change the "losing position" of France in bilateral economic and trade relations.
A "trade war" between America and Europe? Macron: No!
Macron's "trip to the United States" is undoubtedly a grand diplomatic performance. On the one hand, show off the transatlantic friendship between the United States and France; On the other hand, it shows the so-called "EU solidarity" and France's position as the "spokesperson" of EU interests.
The former shows that last year, due to the establishment of the "Oaks" alliance between the United States, Britain and Australia and Australia's unilateral tearing up of the French submarine contract, the diplomatic storm that caused cracks in US-France relations has basically subsided; The latter shows that there is a certain tension in the diplomatic relations between the United States and Europe, and even because of the unreasonable industrial subsidy policy of the United States, the United States and Europe may be involved in a more intense "trade war."
In August this year, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act with a total value of about $750 billion. Among them, the bill says that it will provide subsidies as high as 369 billion US dollars to support the production and investment of electric vehicles, key minerals, clean energy and power generation facilities, but most of the preferential policies can only be enjoyed by American enterprises or enterprises that produce and sell in North America, which has aroused strong dissatisfaction from the EU.
EU officials said that some measures in the inflation reduction bill may "unfairly encourage EU enterprises to move to the United States" and violate global trade rules. Therefore, there have been many voices against the United States in European countries, arguing that the EU should introduce its own set of subsidy measures to support products produced in Europe. In fact, these measures are actually equivalent to a trade war.
Due to the introduction of the inflation reduction bill, it is more economical and wise for entrepreneurs to transfer their industries to the United States than to stay in Europe. After all, today's high energy prices and inflation in France and Europe are a heavy burden for enterprises. On the eve of Macron's visit to the United States, he hosted a banquet at the Elysee Palace in the presidential palace to persuade many European entrepreneurs to stay there, but the effect was not remarkable. Multinational companies such as Lufthansa and Siemens have shifted their positions one after another, making the already troubled European manufacturing situation "worse".
Not long ago, German Federal Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Chabeck even said that the EU would make a "strong response" to the US inflation reduction bill, and the EU would also prepare for a trade conflict with the US. Chabeck believes that Germany and the European Union need more active industrial policies, and Europe needs to take similar measures in response, and there must be corresponding European plans. Compared with France, Germany's attitude towards the United States is more clear and radical, which will inevitably affect the unity within the EU.
Sabek
Therefore, on the "to-do list" of Macron's current visit, the first thing is to strive for more favorable economic and trade status for France and even the European Union, including persuading the White House and congressional leaders to relax relevant measures, and even giving some EU enterprises some "special status" according to the situation of Canada and Mexico, so as to avoid a real "trade war". Macron's "trip to the United States" not only saved the fire for the European Union, but also helped the French "beg for alms".
"European Union Unity" is hard to shake American policy.
A spokesman for the Elysee Palace, the French presidential palace, said last week that Macron's visit was very important and that "we will advocate European interests". "Deutsche Welle" also issued a document yesterday, saying that Macron's visit was aimed at demonstrating "EU unity". However, Olivier, a former economist of the International Monetary Fund, believes that Macron's visit is powerless to prevent European enterprises from transferring to the United States under the temptation of interests, and it is not easy for the United States to amend the bill.
According to a report by The Hill on Wednesday, Macron severely criticized the relevant measures as "too radical" during his conversation with US congressmen and business people that day, saying that these measures "may solve your problems, but will definitely increase our problems." "We just want to be respected as good friends," Macron added, AFP reported.
Long Guanwu Source: Associated Press
However, for Macron's strong demand, the US Congress showed a more obvious rejection. According to the American "Politician" magazine, many Democrats in the US Senate and House of Representatives publicly stated that they would not discuss this issue again. "We welcome European companies to invest in the United States, but we will not revise the text," said Rowen Deng, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.
In fact, for this bill that may trigger a trade war, Macron's posture has been lowered a lot; The German side, on the other hand, is constantly releasing harsh words and warnings, which is actually a strategy to put pressure on the United States, thus promoting negotiations to solve the problem. The key point is that the "strategic autonomy" that the EU has been thinking about for many years is still in its infancy, especially after a series of problems caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU is "asking for something from the United States". However, even if Trump stepped down long ago, the United States has always pursued "American priority" and decisively "backstab" as a European ally when necessary.
"Le Monde" recently pointed out that Europeans once rejoiced for Biden's coming to power, but now they realize that Biden did not prepare gifts for them. Biden will not hesitate to sacrifice European interests when defending American interests. In the next step, the possible actions taken by the EU include complaining to the World Trade Organization, imposing trade sanctions on the United States, and increasing subsidies to European enterprises, but it is difficult to achieve practical results. The EU must comprehensively consider geopolitics, western solidarity and its own interests.
Author Chen Miaosong, member of Shenzhen Satellite TV News Live.