20 16 Financial markets released new signals, and the global economy, including China, entered a downward channel. The American economy began to recover after the subprime mortgage crisis, prompting the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates. Global stock markets are ups and downs in the downtrend, and natural rubber and other futures transactions are also difficult to get rid of the downtrend, and continue to fall from the highest point 15270. So, what will be the future trend of rubber futures?

Fundamental analysis of rubber futures

As a cyclical crop, natural rubber is closely related to strong cyclical industries such as tires and automobiles. Therefore, the trend of rubber futures is highly related to the macroeconomic situation. At present, the supply of natural rubber exceeds demand, and the overcapacity in the past has laid a hidden danger for the present situation.

From 2005 to 2008, the planting area of traditional rubber-producing countries continued to increase, and it was not until last year that the production was reduced. Under the impact of falling prices of finished rubber products, the prices of rubber raw materials also fell. Some rubber producing areas have been abandoned or cut down.

This month, the inventory of rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reached 278,000 tons, up 6.2% from 65438+ in 10. From the cycle of the whole industry, the price of rubber has risen sharply in previous years, and the inventory price and sales volume in the bonded area are also rising gradually.

From next month, the major rubber producing countries in Asia will implement the export quota policy, and the rubber output will be reduced by 610.5 million tons in the next six months. The international natural rubber inventory gradually decreased, and entered the stage of inventory accumulation, and the supply pressure of the industry gradually eased.

Trend analysis of rubber futures

The research mode of commodity futures trading is relatively unified, mainly grasping the main factors and abandoning the secondary factors. Although commodity futures have been in a downward trend in the past few years, we can't confirm that this is the end of the bear market. According to the above fundamental analysis, it can be confirmed that the strong trend of the most profitable effect has not appeared.

At present, rubber futures and spot prices are upside down, and the negative correlation is very obvious. New rubber has no premium in the market. Judging from the historical data and valuation model, rubber has a low valuation and a bottom-up upward momentum, so it can participate in hedging, but macroeconomic data and basic face rebound are suppressed.

Finally, Tuba Rabbit Bian Xiao reminded everyone that the price of rubber futures only rose weakly. From the perspective of the industry, the existing data table of the tire industry has changed, and the sales data of the downstream enterprises of natural rubber have improved, and natural rubber may promote the rebound cycle. However, the bottom of rubber futures needs to be confirmed, and multiple orders can be held in the low position until the bottom bottoming is completed.