In the grain market, the price of grain has changed dramatically, and the prices of wheat and corn have fallen for several days. What happened to the market? The specific analysis is as follows:
First, the price of corn has fallen!
according to official data, from January to June in 222, the domestic feed output reached 136.53 million tons, which was 4.8% lower than that of last year, while the feed output for pigs, egg birds and meat birds dropped by 6.8%, 4% and 6.7% respectively, but for ruminants and aquatic feed, the increase reached 2.8% and 21%. Domestic feed production has declined, and feed enterprises are generally enthusiastic about purchasing corn. Overlapping and directional low-priced rice auctions continue, and the performance of corn substitution by enterprises is more prominent!
As for corn deep processing, due to the international economic downturn, the downstream products of deep processing enterprises are not smooth, some enterprises have more products in stock, and the operating rate of enterprises' machines is reduced. However, when they enter the dog days, the high temperature and humidity environment intensifies the pressure on the operation of enterprises' machines, some factories are shut down for maintenance, and the enthusiasm for corn procurement is deviated! However, due to the frequent showers in Northeast China and North China recently, the market tide grain still has the performance of getting together in quantity, the enterprise just needs less, the sentiment of depressing prices turns stronger, and the domestic spot corn fluctuates lower!
It is understood that in Northeast China, North China and Northeast market, the price of corn has stabilized in an all-round way, with only Cyclobalanopsis Longfeng falling by 1 yuan/ton, while in Tongliao Kailu Yuwang and Jilin Fuel Ethanol, the price of enterprises has increased by 1~2 yuan/ton. In North China, the price of Baoji Fufeng has dropped by 2 yuan/ton, and in Northeast Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia markets, the price of mainstream enterprises has hovered at 1.265~1.365 yuan/ton.
In Huanghuai area, according to the data, at present, in Shandong area, the number of vehicles queuing in front of enterprises has increased to about 32, and the number of enterprises has increased slightly. Due to the deviation of demand side, the market is dominated by tidal grain, and the support for factory price reduction has become stronger. In Shandong area, Changle Shengtai, Shouguang Golden Corn, Chenming Starch, Shandong Tianli, Zouping Ronghai, Leling Zhonggu, Linqing Golden Corn and Feicheng. Hengren Industry & Trade, Heze Chengwu and osawa Chengcheng, the factory prices rose by 1~2 yuan/ton, and the mainstream enterprises in Shandong quoted 1.37~1.45 yuan/kg, most of which were sideways 1.4 yuan/kg!
second, the decline in wheat prices has rebounded!
In the domestic wheat market, recently, due to the recovery of terminal sales of mainstream flour enterprises, the phenomenon of enterprises raising prices and collecting grain has increased, the price of wheat has continued to rise, and the center of gravity has gradually risen above 1.55 yuan/kg, and the quotations of some factories are about to rise by 1.6 yuan/kg! However, due to the continuous increase of wheat quantity in the market after the price increase of enterprises, and the recent showers in the main producing areas, the storage difficulty of wheat has increased, and the quality has declined and overlapped. At this stage, the downstream products of mainstream flour mills are still not smooth, the downstream traders are not willing to stock up, and the operating rate of enterprises remains at a low level. After the price increase of wheat, the warehousing cost has greatly increased, and the pressure on enterprises has increased. Accompanied by the increase of grain sources of enterprises in the market, the sentiment of factory price reduction has become stronger.
Among them, in Shandong market, the quotations of Dezhou Yihai Kerry, Heze Huarui and Shandong Tianbang dropped by 6~1 yuan/ton, and in Hebei area, the prices of Daming Wudeli, Jinsha Henan Hehe and Shahe dropped by 1 yuan/ton; Henan, Xinxiang Wudeli Sifeng Grain Source Store and Anhui Jinshahe enterprises' quotations dropped by 1~2 yuan/ton!
The price of wheat fluctuated and went down. According to industry analysis, according to official data, the output of wheat reached 135.76 million tons this year, while the demand for flour generally hovered at 9 million tons during the year. Because the price of wheat is higher than that of corn, there is no advantage in wheat feeding. Therefore, wheat will also return to the status of "rations", and the market supply will continue to be loose in the later period, and the price of wheat lacks the basis for a sharp rise!
At present, grain sources are concentrated in growers, and traders follow the harvest. Farmers are limited in cultivated land, and there is limited room for increasing income from grain storage. They are not reluctant to sell, and they have a strong feeling of taking advantage of the trend to produce grain. The fall of corn prices and the downward trend of international food prices have also limited the further rise of domestic wheat prices. The motivation for wheat prices to continue to rise is insufficient, and the market will fluctuate sideways in the short term!
Third, the pig price "changed face warning"!
According to the data of pig price, in the domestic pig market, on August 3rd, the national pig price went up against the trend, rising to 1.83 yuan/kg, which was .5 yuan higher than the previous day. The market showed a strong shock. In the domestic region, the pig price generally rose, and in the north and south regions, the pig price rebounded by .1~.2 yuan/kg!
Among them, in the low-price market, the price of pigs in Northeast China rose to 1.3~1.5 yuan/kg, while in North China, the price of pigs hovered at 1.3~11 yuan/kg, while in the high-price areas, at present, the price of pigs in Sichuan, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shanghai, Guangxi and Guangdong has risen above that of 11 yuan/kg, showing a trend of steady and strong!
According to personal analysis, the pig price has been rising at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the enthusiasm of retail pig farms is not high, the head pig enterprises are shrinking, and the supply of pig sources in the market is tight, which has laid the rhythm of pig price increase; On the other hand, consumption support is limited, residents' willingness to purchase fresh pork is not high, and under the constraints of consumption, there is limited room for pig prices to rise, and the average daily order of slaughterhouses is insufficient, and the support of price reduction still exists!
However, although the current pig price shows a continuous increase, the market "face-changing warning" is prominent. From the feedback from the grassroots level, the enthusiasm of large-scale pig enterprises to slaughter has gradually improved, the circulation of pig sources in the market has gradually increased, the difficulty of purchasing pig sources in slaughterhouses has weakened, and the bearish mood in the market has gradually rebounded. Therefore, personally, it is predicted that the pig price will stop rising in the next 2-3 days, or the price will drop slightly.
The pig price "suddenly changed its face", the food price "suddenly changed its face", and corn and wheat fell collectively! What the hell! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the picture comes from the Internet!
# Corn price #