Garlic in 2009 has grown from a few cents at the beginning to three or four yuan/kg now, so speculators who have no investment experience and occasionally join in this year are also full of food. There was a saying that "the growth is fast and the decline is fast", but this prediction has not been fulfilled on garlic in 2009, so think about it in turn. Does it indicate that 20 10 will be a year of high risk for people?
In 2009, the spot price of garlic continued to rise for the following reasons: 1, garlic production decreased due to the influence of meager profit in the previous two years and the panic of garlic crash, and the drought in some areas; 2. The export volume has increased. 3 garlic buyers snapped up and followed suit; 4' swine flu impact; 5 RMB appreciation expectation exists; 6. Low inflation impact; 7. Speculation ... If we continue to speculate on the garlic price trend in 20 10 from the above factors-the garlic planting area has increased in 2010, but it is unlikely to increase significantly due to the shadow panic in 2007-08. The overall increase should be between 5%- 10%, and the garlic price seems to reach the top several this year. As the saying goes, "it's too cold at the top", many stockists may have polished their stocks before April and May of 2009 09- 10. In addition, swine flu has died, but it has also deepened some people's favor for garlic as a flavoring agent. The expectation of RMB appreciation will not change. There is still a certain degree of inflation (but it depends on how the government regulates it) and the influence of "Niuli" in 2009 will bring in a large part of funds to join the garlic copying industry, which has just started to go public. Many vendors are likely to snap up, which leads to the situation that garlic has opened higher and gone higher at the beginning of listing in 20 10. It should be because people in all industries are optimistic about the prospect of garlic that this situation is likely to continue until July. Although there are shocks in the process, the overall trend will continue to rise again. At the beginning of July, various stock dealers began to actively stock up for warehousing. At this time, most garlic merchants and farmers will be more reluctant to sell, coupled with artificial speculation in the electronic trading market (those who have been in the village for 20 10 will definitely fry garlic for their own interests), and the price will continue to rise, which will attract a large part of funds to enter this seemingly profitable "speculation" ranks, indicating the arrival of another round of daily limit in the virtual economy. At this time, the capital market bubble gradually formed and expanded.
The optimism of the virtual economy has added another profit point to the price increase of the garlic industry in the real economy. This situation of "infinite spring" will continue until mid-August, when most of them are optimistic about the prospects of garlic, the risk of plunge is already budding. By the end of August, the national garlic has reached the storage period, and then the futures market will usher in the first sharp decline. In the analysis of the situation at that time, the national garlic cold storage is full. Re-export may be affected by some foreign anti-dumping policies, but the impact is not great. The domestic demand of garlic in major consumer countries such as Southeast Asia and South Asia is not very large, and the appreciation of RMB, so the garlic export volume in 20 10 will not increase much compared with 2009. Due to the extremely high price, the consumption in the domestic market will not be great, and the demand for garlic itself as a flavoring agent will not be great. When vendors and garlic farmers are optimistic about the future of garlic and have a strong reluctance to sell, the domestic and foreign markets will soon become saturated. This is a seemingly "stable" unstable period for the spot market. Some garlic farmers and garlic merchants began to sell surplus stocks. However, at this time, there will be a situation of "no market at a price", and some cautious garlic merchants are not optimistic about the future, whether to open or sell at a lower price. At this stage, the spot market will fall sharply, which is because speculators with market chasing hearts have also begun to sell at a lower price. When the general public lose confidence in the future market and are afraid, garlic futures and spot markets will have a deeper "diving" ...
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