At the same time, pig prices have rebounded strongly in recent days, and there are also many favorable supports. The most important thing is that the "confidence" of consumers has gradually recovered. After all, it is the peak season for pork consumption, and the Spring Festival will soon pass without any heat.
According to the data recently released by China Business Federation, the prosperity index of China's retail industry was 50.3% in June 5438+ 10, up by10.6 percentage points from the previous month, which released a certain positive effect on the market.
At the same time, 2023 has entered the peak time in Spring Festival travel rush, starting from 1.7 and ending on February 15, with ***40 days.
According to preliminary analysis, the total population of Spring Festival travel rush is about 2.095 billion, up 99.5% year-on-year, and it recovered to 70.3% in the same period of 20 19.
This directly shows that the enthusiasm of the booming market in boosting consumption and enhancing market consumer confidence is rising.
Spring Festival is an important reunion festival in China. Every year near the Spring Festival, every household will buy some pork in advance to eat for the New Year. The price of pork will fall every holiday, but it will rise every holiday, which has gradually become an unwritten law in the market.
When Spring Festival travel rush is in progress, it is time to go home. Wanderers who have left their homes go home with a year's hard-earned money to treat themselves and their families, which directly drives the recovery of pork consumption demand.
Superimposed, the price of pigs has been falling continuously in recent days, and the price of white bars has also fallen to a new low. In order to prevent the price of pork from falling too fast, slaughter enterprises will raise the price of live pigs appropriately to stabilize or raise the price of pork. After all, this hanging price difference is too big, which always makes people feel that "it is too hard for middlemen to earn the price difference."
Because the price of pigs fell too hard a few days ago, the main reason is that the slaughter effect of the supply side of pigs is very strong. After all, it has entered the late twelfth lunar month, and the price of pigs is still falling. You said the farmers were in no hurry.
Most farmers are eager to sell pigs. It has become the norm to sell down but not up, but it is also very helpless. Some of them sell pigs to repay feed debts, some sell pigs to repay loans at the end of the year, and some sell pigs to clear their hearts. This is a busy year, so let's settle down.
Large pig enterprises seem to have fallen badly, and it is difficult to make money by selling pigs again. Then adjust and reduce the amount of slaughter in these days, thus promoting a wave of rebound in pig prices, and then sell them on rallies.
In short, in recent days, the pig price has rebounded strongly under the background of "slightly tight supply and slightly better demand", or it is called "low-level compensatory increase", and the pig market has ushered in a red light. Therefore, the short-term pig price presents a staged "strong shock" trend.
However, considering that the supply of live pigs is still sufficient, and there are imported meat and reserve meat as the backing, there is no shortage of pigs and meat in the market, which directly lays the foundation for the pig price to rise sharply even if it rebounds briefly.
At the same time, although the demand side has entered the peak consumption season, it still presents the phenomenon of "difficult peak season". In this context of strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that even if the pig price rebounds before the Spring Festival, the rebound space is limited.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 25% and fell by 1, and the rising areas accounted for 96% of all the monitored areas.
The average price of live pigs monitored nationwide is at least 7.7 1 yuan/kg, the highest is 7.97 yuan/kg, and the overall average price of live pigs is 7.84 yuan/kg, which is 0.54 yuan/kg higher than the national average price yesterday. Today, the overall price of live pigs shows a trend of "most of them are rising".
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of some slaughter enterprises has gradually decreased, and some slaughter enterprises have partially withdrawn from the plan. Slaughtering volume of slaughter enterprises continues to increase, and the delivery speed is good. However, the bidding enthusiasm of some traders and slaughter enterprises has weakened, fearing that into the pit's mood will become more obvious.
The ex-factory price of white pigs in slaughter enterprises in Northeast China increased by 1 10,000 yuan/ton, while the price of white pigs in slaughter enterprises in Shandong increased by 300 yuan/ton. The price of white pigs in some slaughter enterprises in northeast and northwest China rose first and then fell.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the recent analysis of pig market factors, market sentiment is still the first choice. It is expected that the price of live pigs will show a trend of "increasing steadily" tomorrow, so we should be alert to the phenomenon of large-scale pig rallies.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and raise pigs to make a fortune.