The Spring Festival is approaching, vegetables tend to rise in price, how are your city's food prices?

2022 Spring Festival vegetable prices are expected to be how? New Year's vegetable prices will rise to what price? It is understood that we maintain a bearish view of the hog 03 contract, and eggs 01 contract of the market upside to maintain a cautious attitude, and is expected after the Spring Festival meat and egg prices will be accelerated with the price of vegetables **** vibration downward.

CITIC said, vegetables are becoming an important factor in the price of fresh food category of agricultural products, "vegetables are more expensive than meat, followed by, why not eat meat mince" is no longer a joke. Since June this year radish, cabbage, cauliflower, spinach, celery, zucchini, squash, bitter melon, tomatoes and eggplant and other vegetables prices have risen by more than 100%, while the celery, zucchini, squash prices rose to the forefront, has reached more than 200%.

Vegetables are an important supplement to meat consumption, large price changes on eggs and pork prices have disturbed

CITIC Research believes that vegetables, meat, eggs, soy products, etc. is the main part of the structure of the food and beverage "dish" in normal circumstances, we are talking about vitamins, fibers, proteins, a reasonable combination, therefore, vegetables as the main provider of vitamins, fiber, and protein, therefore, vegetables as the main provider of vitamins. Under normal circumstances, we are talking about a reasonable mix of vitamins, fiber and protein, so the main purpose of the public consumption of vegetables as the main provider of vitamins and eggs, meat and poultry as the main provider of protein is different. However, in the Chinese food culture, we usually talk about the combination of meat and vegetables, and the proportion of the combination may be affected by the price on the one hand, and the price on the other.

If one observes the changes in the egg price index and the vegetable price index, one can definitely conclude that they have a strong correlation. The actual measurement can be obtained, the correlation coefficient of the two in 2021 is about 0.41, the correlation is more obvious; however, if in a longer time dimension, such as ten years, the correlation between the two is only 0.18, which is a weak correlation.

Meat, eggs and vegetables themselves, as food, do have a certain substitution relationship, although the long-term correlation is more from the two face *** same demand fluctuations.

When the seasonal demand is strong, vegetables and eggs and other products are prone to *** with the price increase, and because of the planting cycle of vegetables, facing the weather and other risk factors with the farming is different, so the rhythm of the supply side is not consistent, and ultimately the formation of a relatively weak correlation. Because the correlation between the two does not have causality, for a long time we did not use vegetable prices as a major factor when analyzing eggs and meat. However, as vegetable prices have risen, the recent markedly elevated correlation suggests an additional layer of substitution conduction in addition to the original *** vibration factor.

Between eggs and pork, the impact of eggs on vegetables is more pronounced. Eggs in the food and beverage chain between pure meat and vegetables, is the closest to the vegetable consumption of animal protein, in the past history can also be found because of the rise in vegetable prices led to the rise in egg prices.

Vegetables and pork to form a mutual substitution, a single aspect of the price rise and fall may not be enough, and the current market has appeared in the pig price fell sharply compared to the previous period and vegetables rose sharply. The price difference between the two quickly contracted, originally because of very high pig prices led to the consumption of atrophy in the case of vegetable prices are stable may need a faster time to recover, but because of the sharp upward movement of vegetable prices, the speed of recovery is beyond expectations.

What is different from year to year, comparing the seasonal price fluctuations of vegetables over the years

CITIC CITIC Research believes that by the natural conditions of production limitations and the impact of uneven listing, vegetable prices have obvious seasonal characteristics. Overall, every year in May-June, the concentration of spring vegetables on the market is the lowest point of the overall price of vegetables, followed by July-September with the arrival of high temperatures and typhoons in the south, vegetable prices gradually rebound, to October-November fall vegetables on the market continue to pull down the price of a large number of December, the end of the winter brought the supply of open field vegetables and the Spring Festival brought the seasonal consumption of vegetable prices pushed to the highest, and then, with the storage vegetables The quality of the vegetables declined and the temperature rose supply increased, vegetable prices fell again.

The trend in vegetable prices before October this year was basically the same as in previous years, but since October, vegetable prices have seen a rapid anti-seasonal rise, with prices reaching the level of the Chinese New Year in previous years.

The main reason for this year's anti-seasonal trend in vegetable prices came from the rainy weather in the early part of the year. From the beginning of late September to early October, the main vegetable producing areas during this period of rain, vegetable planting, growth, picking, storage are affected to varying degrees. Vegetables were generally delayed and poorly produced. This led to a shortage of vegetable supply at the same time, driving the overall price of vegetables rose.

Generally speaking, changes in supply and demand are the basic causes of price fluctuations of agricultural products, of which the rapid rise in production costs and distribution costs is the main reason for the continuous rise in agricultural prices. Natural disasters, information asymmetry and food safety incidents and other external shocks are important drivers of sudden changes in agricultural prices.

In addition, the national vegetable production is relatively concentrated, including the Yellow Huaihai and Bohai Sea area, the Yangtze River area of vegetable production can account for more than 70% of the country, the characteristics of the spatial distribution of the imbalance of the vegetable prices in China has also caused a large fluctuations.

Separation of production and marketing is an important feature of China's vegetable market, vegetables in the country's north-south transportation, although it can ease the overall imbalance between supply and demand, but a substantial increase in the circulation of the link has also caused a sharp rise in vegetable prices in the period of imbalance between supply and demand, we believe that the increase in the trade links after the cost of the circulation of the three quarters of the year and vegetables in the poor harvest is the key reason for the current round of upward trend in vegetable prices.

Can price increases be sustained? Based on the short-cycle characteristics of vegetable cultivation

Currently with the weather turning cooler, the supply of vegetables is in the transfer from the north to the south, from open-air vegetables to the transfer of facilities for vegetables in the turnover period. Facilities (greenhouses, greenhouses, etc.) the entry of vegetables will increase the supply of vegetables, taking into account the general vegetables sown to maturity takes 1-2 months, is expected to mid-November, facilities will fill the gap in supply caused by fall vegetables.

Facility vegetables in the northern region often need a certain amount of heating to address the negative impact of low temperatures, and heating channels to burn boilers (raw materials for coal) and hot air furnace (raw materials for coal and oil) based. This year, coal prices have so far tripled, heating costs rose sharply on the one hand, so that part of the vegetable growers because of the expected decline in planting revenue to choose to abandon planting, on the other hand, also effectively pushed up the cost of planting facilities for vegetables, so it is difficult to avoid the rise in the price of facilities for vegetables.

At the same time, this year, La Ni?a weather again, NOAA predicts that there is an 82% probability that La Ni?a will continue to this year in December - next year in February. La Ni?a's arrival means that this year is the probability of a cold winter greatly increased, and the northern facilities of vegetables in the cold winter conditions of heating demand is bound to rise, which will also synchronize to push up the cost of vegetable heating, the general year the cost of facilities of vegetables in the cost of fertilizers and machinery included in the material and service costs accounted for 28% or so, this year the cost of the cost of the total cost of the proportion is expected to rise sharply.

This year's low temperatures and energy prices brought about by the rising cost of heating will push up the overall price of vegetables, so the fourth quarter is expected to fall back to limited space for vegetables, we expect the next three months vegetable prices will maintain a strong pattern, and even further high. But the medium term is still subject to the constraints of the agricultural spider web cycle, especially concerned about the characteristics of the short cycle of vegetable growth, after next year's Spring Festival after vegetable prices face the risk of accelerated decline.

CITIC CITIC research said, we believe that the past two weeks of meat and egg prices have been sharply upward indeed by the upward boost of vegetables, and in the next 2-3 months vegetable prices continue to be strong to help enhance the meat, egg alternative consumption demand, support the current round of meat, egg rebound amplitude. But we are not optimistic about the long-term upward trend of vegetable prices, the current round of upward movement in the long term cycle also foreshadowed the future of a significant lower, so vegetable prices are not enough to reverse the meat, egg supply and demand fundamentals themselves.

Farming products in the spot market supply side have the habit of chasing the rise and fall, the sharp fluctuations in the spot bring futures up and down, and even distort the futures market in the medium and long term expectations, this is instead to give us a better opportunity to trade and hedging, we maintain a bearish view of the 03 contract of hogs, and eggs 01 contract of the market to maintain a cautious attitude of the upside and is expected to be the spring festival after the Meat and egg prices will be accelerated with vegetable prices **** vibration downward. The above is about the Spring Festival in 2022 vegetables will rise in price? New Year's vegetable prices will rise to what price of the whole content, I hope to help you.