The price of live pigs fluctuates greatly, showing the trend of "off-season" and "off-season". Listed pig enterprises turned losses into profits and vigorously developed the whole industrial chain, and retail farmers were forced to withdraw from the pig market. ......
There are three main keywords in the pig market in 2022, the first is whether there is a shortage of pigs, the second is the inflection point of the pig cycle, and the third is the recession, each of which triggered a hot discussion at that time! Since April this year, the new pig cycle has entered an upward trend, many listed pig enterprises have turned losses into profits, and it is not uncommon for retail farmer property hoarding to have two children. The live pig market is tight and the price of live pigs is soaring.
At the same time, pork prices are also at a high level; Entering 65438+February, in the off-season of cured meat, leading pig enterprises have increased their slaughter, which has become a nightmare for every farmer.
The price of live pigs breaks the seasonal law.
In the first quarter of 2022, negative factors were diversified. After the Spring Festival, the price of live pigs continued to run, and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia triggered a global food panic. Many domestic feed mills have raised prices one after another, and the cost of breeding has continued to rise, further expanding the losses of pig farmers. In the middle and late March, the pig-grain ratio has fallen below 5: 1 for six consecutive weeks, and the government officially launched the purchasing and storage policy.
There was a strong rebound in the second quarter. In April, due to the spread of the "mask problem", the flow of people was restricted, and the catering industry and hotel meals were difficult to recover. At the same time, it becomes more difficult to transport pigs. In the short term, the market is tight and the price of pigs begins to rise. By the end of June, it was "skyrocketing" by 64.58% compared with the end of March, and the increase was amazing!
The growth in the third quarter is abnormal. In July, the temperature was even higher than in previous years, the cost of cooling pigsty was high, and many pigs died of heat. People's demand for pork weakened, and pig prices began to decline. However, after a period of time, the temperature began to drop, the Mid-Autumn Festival was coming, and schools started one after another. Pig prices skyrocketed!
The decline in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, and the National Day continued to rise at the end of September, all the way to "sit on the rocket". The national average price of live pigs exceeds 28 yuan/kg, and the slaughter is higher than before. Many opportunistic retail investors were blinded by the immediate bonus and bought standard pigs at a high price to start a second education. Unexpectedly, the price of live pigs fell "cliff-like" for half a month, and farmers thought it would enter 165438+.
From June to February in 5438, this situation became more and more obvious, and the price of live pigs once fell into the ice cave. In view of this situation, recently, the official said that the National Development and Reform Commission changed the regulation direction of putting in reserve meat some time ago, but said that it would take regulation measures for storage and storage when necessary! Farmers have seen the dawn again and again, and pig prices are gradually picking up.
Pig prices rise and fall frequently.
The price of pigs rose sharply yesterday and fell sharply today. This kind of thing is not uncommon. Like a pair of big hands behind the scenes, many investors have run away.
At the end of this year, there was no new high expected by farmers, and the second education was even worse. The main reason is that the slaughter rhythm is not well controlled, and pigs are not properly slaughtered and supplemented, which leads to pigs gaining weight all the time.
Since the "mask problem" has appeared repeatedly this year, it has further limited the recovery of food in the catering industry and restaurants, and the price of superimposed live pigs has been at a high level since 10. Even in the curing season, the consumption of live pigs has been unable to go up, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has dropped significantly.
Next year's pig market
However, after the Spring Festival next year, the price trend of live pigs still depends on the quantity. Generally speaking, after the holiday is the off-season of consumption, and the price of live pigs will fall back. Personally, I suggest that farmers should arrange for the slaughter of pigs in an orderly manner before the year, and don't continue to suppress the price of pigs because of the recent "Koharu" and leave the loss until 2022.
As the saying goes, "You gain wisdom after eating a pit", farmers will not be willing to bet on the market outlook next year because they can't get two books in front of them. The prices of live pigs and pork will return to normal levels. With the decrease of feed cost, the breeding cost is also gradually decreasing, especially the soybean meal, which decreased by 600 yuan/ton from 1 1 in mid-June. There is hope for raising pigs next year.
It is difficult for the live pig market to rise sharply during the year.
At present, 40-50% of secondary education households in China are under the pressure of centralized slaughter. Listed pig enterprises plan to slaughter pigs at the end of the year. On June 5438+ 10, some leading pig enterprises will slaughter pigs in February ahead of schedule, so the market will continue to be too much before the Spring Festival. At present, less than one month before the Spring Festival, the slaughter window period will be significantly reduced, the risk of market trampling will increase, and the price of live pigs will fluctuate.
Finally, 2022 will be a thing of the past no matter how hard it is. Let's look forward to 2023!