On the second trading day after the listing of live pig futures, market participants suggested that the closing price of the 2 109 contract of live pig futures yesterday was 26,030 yuan/ton, which was 7.99% lower than the settlement price on the 8th, forming a downward trend of the contract. It should be noted that at present, the domestic futures market generally calculates the price limit of the next day based on the settlement price of the previous day, while the settlement price of the 8-day live pig futures contract 2 109 is 28,290 yuan/ton, which is much higher than the closing price of 268 10 yuan/ton. Therefore, despite the daily limit at the settlement price yesterday, it actually fell by 780 yuan/ton at the closing price, with a decrease of only 2.9%.
Pig futures continue to fall sharply, and investors need to pay attention to preventing and controlling risks.
When it comes to pig futures, the contract hit a limit within two trading days. Sun Chao, a senior analyst of Yide Futures Agricultural Products, said in an interview with the reporter of Futures Daily that there are two reasons: First, the market has strong expectations for the sustained and rapid recovery of 202 1 pigs, and the prices of soybean meal and corn in the distant month are high, and the expected good feed demand can confirm each other; Second, the spot price of live pigs in China dropped to a certain extent last weekend, which made the market pessimistic.
Che Hongting, an analyst of Founder's mid-term futures agricultural products, also said that pig futures fell again on the second trading day after listing, and the far-month contract continued to show a deep discount, and the market atmosphere was pessimistic. The downward trend of long-term profit in the pig market has basically reached the market.
According to CCTV's financial report, pig futures fell sharply for two consecutive trading days, indicating that the market is still bearish on the general trend of pork prices during the year, and the whole pig cycle is still downward from the big pattern.
"From the current point of view, the futures price of live pigs is close to the market's expected price in September." In Sun Chao's view, it is expected that short-selling and bargain-hunting funds may enter the market in the later period, and the decline may slow down.
Some market participants have suggested that the price fluctuation of new varieties in the futures market is usually more intense at the initial stage of listing. The main reason is that the participation of all kinds of participants in the initial stage of listing of new varieties is insufficient and unbalanced, the market does not fully absorb and reflect information, and the price discovery mechanism needs a gradual calibration process. Therefore, investors should fully understand the characteristics of the market and do a good job in risk prevention and control when they participate in the transaction at the initial stage of listing of new varieties.
"In the long run, although the current spot price is still too high from the pig price range under normal supply and demand, there is great uncertainty about the speed of recovery of pig supply. Therefore, investors in the later period should pay more attention to risk control and grasp the market rhythm. " Sun Chao said.
Pork prices may still have some support before the Spring Festival.
According to the reporter's understanding, pork prices have stopped falling and rebounded since 65438+February last year. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, after more than two months of decline, the wholesale price of pork began to rise from the 47th week in 2020 to the 1 week in 2026, and rose for seven consecutive weeks, from 39.36 yuan/kg to 45.92 yuan/kg, with an increase of 16.67%.
The CPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday also showed that in February 2020, with the arrival of the Spring Festival on New Year's Day, consumer demand increased seasonally, feed costs rose, and pork prices changed from 6.5% 1 1 in June to 6.5%.
Whether pork prices will continue to rise before the Spring Festival this year has also become the focus of market attention.
By analyzing the reasons why the price drop of pork failed to last for 5,438+2 months in June last year, Sun Chao believed that it was affected by two epidemics: First, pig diseases such as viral piglet diarrhea were more serious in winter, and the survival rate of piglets declined. The market thinks that there may be problems in the supply of fat pigs from the first quarter to the second quarter of this year, so the centralized slaughter slows down and the supply of pigs is affected; Second, the COVID-19 epidemic has repeatedly affected the normal shipment of imported and frozen products, and food enterprises are in the critical period of stocking before the Spring Festival, so they can only increase the procurement of slaughterhouses and increase the demand for live pigs.
Che Hongting told reporters that at present, the bullish sentiment of reluctance to sell at the breeding end still exists. The detection of COVID-19 in imported cold chain food and the blocked delivery of frozen meat are all conducive to the demand for fresh meat, which will continue to reduce the ceiling price. "Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the price of live pigs will have some support, and the spot market price of live pigs may be dominated by high shocks." She said.
Hou Xueling, a senior researcher at Everbright Futures, predicted that the price of live pigs would fluctuate by 2-4 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival. The logic lies in weakening demand to suppress prices, and tight supply to limit the decline. Specifically, due to the end of pickling activities, the early holiday of learning enterprises and sporadic outbreaks of domestic epidemics, the demand for live pigs is expected to gradually weaken, thus suppressing prices. However, at present, the price of live pigs and breeding profits are in the high range, which also reflects that the current supply of live pigs is tight, and the price of live pigs may not drop sharply. The specific decline depends on whether aquaculture enterprises will speed up the pace of slaughter and the speed of demand decline in June 5438+ 10.
How will the feed price trend affect the pig price trend this year?
From the perspective of the whole pig industry chain, there are many factors that affect pig prices. As an important factor affecting the cost of raising pigs, since 2020, feed prices have gone out of a sharp upward trend, and the prices of corn and soybean meal have continued to strengthen. According to market analysts, with the recovery of the production capacity of the live pig market and the high production capacity of poultry breeding in the future, it is expected that the overall feed demand will show a steady growth trend, especially the demand growth rate of pig feed will increase significantly.
Looking forward to the next feed price trend, Hou Xueling said that due to the favorable support from the supply side, the prices of soybean meal and corn will remain strong in the first quarter of this year, and the prices are expected to reach a new high, which also means that feed prices are expected to continue to rise in the first quarter.
"202 1, the corn planting area will increase to a certain extent, but the actual supply will not be formed until after 10, so the domestic corn supply and demand are tight before the autumn harvest, and the price may not drop significantly. In addition, the international soybean and corn prices have also risen sharply, and the imported price increase factor will also push up the breeding cost. " Sun Chao said.
In Hou Xueling's view, feed prices generally affect pig breeding from two aspects, namely, pigs and planned pigs. Among them, for pigs, the increase in feed prices is less than that of pigs. Autotrophic, outsourcing piglets and secondary fattening of pigs are all profitable, and feed prices have no obvious influence on pig prices. Moreover, compared with the feed price, the seasonal law of pig slaughter and feed inventory can affect the rhythm of pig slaughter, and then affect the pig price.
"From the point of view of the pig plan, after the Spring Festival, farmers concentrate on the piglet supplement, and the expected increase in feed will affect the farmers' breeding cost expectations, which in turn will affect the breeding profit expectations and breeding willingness. By then, the feed price will be included in the pig breeding cost together with the piglet cost, epidemic prevention cost, labor cost and other costs. The change of total cost will affect the pig price center after five months. " Hou Xueling said.
Che Hongting said that it is estimated that the breeding benefit of the live pig market in 20021year is still good, but the overall profit margin in time and space is weakened, and the feed cost end may form a bottom support for the live pig market price.