Pork has always been the favorite meat food for most people. Watching the news of the changes in the price of meat in the universe can always easily touch the most sensitive nerves of ordinary people. Pork plays an indispensable role in our life. It not only provides us with the basic material needs of meat, eggs and milk, but also meets people's pursuit of a healthy diet. The skyrocketing pork prices in previous years have also made many consumers lament that pork consumption at home must be reduced.

Fortunately, pork prices returned to normal levels in the first half of the year. This is mainly because a series of regulatory policies issued by the state have reduced the number of live pigs, while the market demand for pork has increased. Consumers are also very satisfied with this pork price situation. Because since last year, the pig breeding industry has been in a state of loss, but the increase in pig prices this year has increased the income of farmers. However, with the arrival of 10, this situation seems to have changed. Because the number of live pigs has decreased this year, but the number of live pigs has increased greatly, there has been sufficient supply and weak demand in the market in the second half of this year. Now that the price of pigs has really "fallen", how long can it last this time? Will it go up again? Will it affect the year-end market? After three consecutive years of decline, where is the pig breeding industry going? The answer is here. Let's find out.

First, the pork market has changed now.

According to the analysis of insiders, there have been two development trends in the whole pork market since 10 this year. One is optimistic expectation, hoping to return the pig price to a reasonable range before the end of the year. First, the price of pork in the future is expected to be poor, thinking that the price of live pigs will drop sharply. The second is that pork prices will continue to rise this year. The previous ups and downs. This time, it may be another time. The second is a new guess about the future trend of pork prices. From now on, this guess has become a fact.

The second is to positively predict the future pork price, thinking that the price will be higher and higher, and even present a market situation of "rising like a rainbow". After all, there are still more than two months before the Spring Festival. With the traditional custom of Chinese New Year as the background, people's demand for pork will further expand.

At present, the price of pork has dropped all the way from 28 yuan to 26 yuan. It is understood that due to the rising price of pork, many farmers have suffered losses, and some even lost their blood. Although it doesn't seem to change much by kilogram, it is undoubtedly a big loss for pig farmers and pork circulation and sales enterprises. If the price of pork continues to drop, then pig farmers must raise pigs well to get higher returns. 2 yuan loses per kilogram of pork, and 100 kilograms loses 200. By analogy, the greater the total pork sales, the more serious the loss.

In fact, the drop in pork prices this time is not without warning. Judging from the current situation, the pig price has not completely fallen back in place. Previously, the authorities have issued relevant announcements about the pig market. It can be seen from these notices that the state has carried out strict management and supervision on pig breeding. By informing the content, it is not difficult to see that the pig price has entered the rising range at this stage. Historically, the pig cycle usually goes through a process of first restraining and then rising, then restraining and then rebounding. From the consistent trend, it is followed by stagflation and decline.

There are still many people in the industry who feel that the decline in pork prices at this stage is not really affected by consumption, but caused by emotional changes. In fact, on the whole, the pig breeding industry in China is still in a relatively good state, and with the introduction and implementation of a series of national policies, the pig industry is gradually developing in a benign direction. Before, the market price continued to rise, which made many farmers feel profitable. It should be appropriate to withdraw from the market. In fact, this idea is not correct. Corresponding to the increasing market supply, it is the declining demand of consumers. In fact, it's not that ordinary people don't like pork, and there are no other good substitutes. However, due to the high price, there is a mentality of avoiding eating too much pork.

Because of this, the supply of live pigs is increasing and the demand is decreasing. With the passage of time and the cold weather, the price of pork will rise gradually. However, pork is still a kilo in 26 yuan, but I believe this situation will be improved before long. This is because the cost of pig breeding has been effectively controlled. With the increase in the number of live pigs and the amount to be slaughtered, the price of live pigs will remain high for some time to come. Here, let's take a look at the industry's forecast of pig prices in 65438+February last year.

Second, the forecast of pork price trend in the next few months

The first forecast shows that the overall price of live pigs is on the rise. After all, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching day by day, many ordinary people have to start preparing for the New Year's goods. During the Spring Festival, people's diet structure is also changing. Whether in the south or the north, we should prepare special products such as enema and sausage. In addition, pork is also a good choice because of the large consumption of meat during the Spring Festival. As well as the production of such specialties, it has an indissoluble bond with pork.

The existence of this demand will greatly increase the demand in the pork market, which will lead to the rise of pork prices. At present, all parts of the country have entered the winter pig slaughter and centralized slaughter period, and the peak period of pork consumption is around the Spring Festival. Such a peak season for pork sales may last from the end of June this year 165438+ 10 to the middle of June next year/65438+ 10.

The second prediction is that farmers may have more resistance. At present, many farmers may be grasping the supply in their hands and supplying the market after the peak season resumes next month. The third judgment is that slaughter enterprises should be prepared to deal with various risks if they want to survive in the off-season. This will make the pressure on the slaughter industry chain highly concentrated, and next month may be the busiest time of the year.

But on the whole, this round of pork decline actually didn't fall much. After all, it will be the peak season of 165438+ 10 in ten days. At present, the whole pork market has been basically stable. In this context, there is not much room for pork prices to fall. At present, pork prices have shown obvious signs of decline. In the next few months, the overall situation will rise.

Second, affected by the epidemic, the cold chain transportation of live pigs will be more difficult, and the supply of live pigs will gradually fall short of demand. In addition, farmers are sensitive to market information and product information after the outbreak. Coupled with the panic caused by the epidemic, it may also lead to consumer hoarding, which directly leads to an increase in demand. This shows that pork prices will not fall very low. Therefore, the pig price in China will remain at a high level for some time to come, and will continue to rise. In the situation of bottoming out, soon after.

conclusion

Generally speaking, once entering 1 1 month, the price of live pigs will not have much room for continuous decline. Farmers don't have to worry too much about this, and consumers should also be prepared for the pork price to rise again. Then, will the pig price drop significantly next year? What's your comment on this round of pork price decline and rise?