Also, after a hundred years of gestation, commercial real estate in Japan ushered in a sudden outbreak in modern times. At this stage, passion and chaos blend, profiteering and risk dance together, and there are often a number of global commercial projects and systems, such as Mitsui and AEON projects. They appeared as stormtroopers and grew at an unimaginable speed. They are the most eye-catching stars and benchmarks in the industry.
However, on the way to the charge, more than half of the projects were mediocre, and a small number of projects lingered, but only one project failed in a mess and was rendered as a' ruin' by the media, which made a footnote for this magnificent period in the most extreme and vivid way.
Shoushan Pieri Shopping Center was crowned with such a' laurel'. On its opening day in 2008, it welcomed more than 50,000 tourists. Three years later, there was only one coffee shop and lottery shop left in 200 stores, and then it was completely closed for rectification one year later, which caused an uproar in Japan's commercial real estate industry and was called "living ruins" and "bright ruins" by various media.
Shoushan pieri Shopping Center is located near the beautiful Lake Biwa, which is equivalent to the West Lake in China. Unlike Hangzhou, which is next to the West Lake, it is next to Shoushan, Japan, with a population of less than 80,000 (administratively, Japan is equivalent to a county in China). But it was here that a developer took a fancy to a piece of land and developed and established the Shoushan pieri Shopping Center.
On September 20th, 2008, Shoushan peary Shopping Center officially opened. The facade is all painted white, and the overall structure is like a luxury mail ship. There are three major stores here, a local supermarket similar to Jingkelong, a sporting goods store similar to Decathlon, a large shoe franchise store ABC-Mart, and 200 other stores have been rented. At the time of opening, the target is 9 million tourists every year, and the annual rental income is 65.438+0.5 billion RMB. In fact, it reached 53,000 people on the opening day, and the number of tourists has exceeded expectations every day since then. Usually, parking lots are full, and even salespeople can't find parking spaces on holidays, but this situation didn't last long. Within one year of its opening, the number of visitors decreased significantly, with a turnover of about 654.38+0.2 billion yen. After that, it continued to slump, and the shops gradually closed. In 2065.438+03, there were only 70 shops left, and in 2065.438+03, there were only 8 shops left.
In fact, if Aeon Caojindian hadn't opened, Shoushan Pirui wouldn't have spread widely, which led many media to take the lead in reporting and become a negative textbook.
? In 20 13, the brand advertisement was removed, leaving only pieri's logo.
? 20 14 is empty and there is no shop.
In retrospect, when the major media marveled at the speed of bankruptcy and called it "bright ruins", they did not forget to analyze the reasons for its failure. Generally speaking, their views mainly include the following two points.
First of all, the position is seriously damaged.
The original site of Shoushan pieri Shopping Center was severely damaged. Half is Lake Biwako, and the other half is sporadic single-family houses within five kilometers of Fiona Fang. The scale of Shoushan Pirui is between the community shopping center and the suburban shopping center, with a radiation range of more than five kilometers. Generally speaking, for a Japanese suburban shopping center with an annual turnover of 30 billion yen, it needs at least a business circle with 500,000 people. However, there are only 2,500 people within a kilometer radius of Shoushan Pili, 28,000 people within 3 kilometers and 66,000 people within 5 kilometers (data is 20 10).
It is difficult for such a population to support the commercial volume of 55,000 ㎡, not to mention that there will be new residents soon.
Second, the entry of AEON Caojindian.
Aeon (Caojindian) officially opened in 165438+ at the end of June 2008, with an area of about 80,000 ㎡. It is known as the largest shopping center in West Japan, and the straight-line distance from Shoushan pieri is12km. With AEON Department Store and its supermarkets as the main stores, 186 stores were reorganized. There is a huge atrium with a total length of 400 meters inside the shopping center, which has excellent lighting. In addition, the business circle radiated by Caojindian is about 550,000 people, which can be reached in 30 minutes by car, including the radiation range of Shoushan Pirui. Aeon Caojindian opened only three months later than Shoushan pieri. After opening, with the volume of 1.5 times, large cinemas and colorful shops instantly seized the share of Shoushan Pirui. Since then, Shoushan Pieri has gone from bad to worse. In addition, in April of 20 10, Aeon Caojindian launched the largest hot spring pavilion at the provincial level, which made it even rarer for people to shop in Shoushan Pili. A local expert said that the vicious circle of weak customer gathering, inability to recruit competitive shops and further reduction in the number of people coming to shop is the biggest reason why pieri, the guardian of the mountain forest, quickly became a ruin.
In hindsight, that's true. But if you think about it further, what are these two obvious reasons? Looking at this area on Google Maps can generally determine whether the site selection is feasible. What caused the project to pass the production planning meeting? In addition, AEON opened in Shoushan only three months later than pieri. Judging from the common sense of the real estate industry, as early as two years ago, the news of AEON's land acquisition was often flying all over the sky. As an unprofessional development operator, why not change the plan and choose to compete with one of the best operators in the circle? With these two questions, I consulted a lot of information and finally summed up four reasons among many clues.
I. Reasons for site selection
Why choose Shoushan Site? The main reason is that land is cheap. The former site of Shoushan Pieri is a theme park named "Biwahu Wangwang Kingdom". This park is the largest dog theme park established by Itochu Corporation in Japan, with 700,000 visitors on the opening day. However, due to the intensified competition after entering the 2 1 century, the number of tourists is only one third of that in its heyday. In 2005, the operation was difficult, and the application for closure left a large area of land. At this time, Yamato Systems and another company focused on this land, and started construction after obtaining the land in 2007. It is said that the total investment is 20 billion yen (65.438+0.25 billion RMB), the target is 9 million tourists and the annual turnover is 65.438+0.8 billion yen. If the target is achieved, the cost can be recovered in about 12 years.
Second, the business model
In fact, when Shoushanpili got the land to prepare for the opening plan, he already knew AEON's plan to open a shop nearby, but he still didn't modify the plan. One reason is its business model. According to relevant sources, Daiwa originally planned to sell the whole project quickly and stabilize cash flow in the short term after opening. In this business model, developers will not consider pieri's long-term strategy, but focus on opening earlier than AEON and quickly recovering the investment of 20 billion yen.
Third, planning mistakes.
There is another reason for not changing the plan, that is, the developers of Daiwa System think that it is not necessarily impossible to stimulate pieri's potential by competing with AEON. According to the information provided by the parties, there are five reasons, which are passed internally after argumentation. However, it turns out that these five reasons are not valid.
1.
Pieri of Shoushan thinks: As shown in the above picture, there is a bridge connecting the west bank of Lake Biwa and Pieri of Shoushan. The customer base on the west bank of Lake Biwa is about 20km away from Wang Yong (Caojindian), and it takes 30 to 40 minutes by car. By contrast, it takes only ten minutes for this group to reach Shoushan Pieri. As long as the store is attractive, it can attract most customers in this area.
But in fact, ...
This bridge is a one-way round trip to 24 yuan, and the toll is 12 yuan. Few customers in this area go shopping in Shoushan Piri.
Watch a cruise ship
Piri of Shoushan believes that because it is close to the lake, there is naturally a small port, and tourists who take sightseeing boats may get off the boat to shop, which is an advantage that AEON (Caojindian) does not have.
But in fact, ...
The number of cruise ships docked is very small, and even fewer people come to shop.
3. Leisure Holy Land
Pieri, Shoushan, thinks that being close to the beautiful Lake Biwa and visiting the leisure holy land have more advantages than AEON (Caojindian).
But in fact, ...
A housewife (49 years old) shopping in AEON said: "Most areas in Shiga County are lakesides, and children are tired of watching them. In many of the same statements, only one housewife (37 years old) gave a positive comment: "It is the best time for children to play when it rains, and the museum is empty and will not disturb others."
4. Population growth in radiation areas
According to pieri Shoushan, according to the 20 10 Japanese population survey, the population of the whole country is gradually decreasing, and only the population around pieri Shoushan is increasing, with a growth rate of 8%, which gives developers great confidence.
But in fact, ...
The increased population is cheaper than AEON (Caojindian).
There are many young people around.
Pieri Shoushan believes that not only the population around Pieri Shoushan is increasing, but also there are many young people with high purchasing power because there are two universities around and local people like popular products.
But in fact, ...
Lack of characteristics to attract young people, few people are interested.
Although pieri is not as good as AEON, as long as Daiwa can find foreign capital, buy low and sell high, even if it is sold normally, the capital chain will not be broken. However, when the project just opened, it was hit by the financial crisis in 2008. A pre-negotiated acquisition agency withdrew, and then it couldn't find the next one. After a long time, the partner quit first, and then due to the deterioration of performance, in 20 10 years, Daiwa system could not support the application for bankruptcy. Fearing that their deposit could not be refunded, various shops rushed to withdraw their rents, so by 20 12, there were only less than 70 shops left.
After the bankruptcy of Daiwa system, in March of 20 12, the developer kodo.cc made an acquisition after investigating this place. Chairman Li Huazhe also said, "After in-depth talks with many major stores before purchasing, I feel that if other stores are introduced on the basis of stabilizing existing stores, this place will come back to life", but in fact, kodo.cc Company was disappointed after struggling for one and a half years. Due to the introduction of a large number of new stores, the air-conditioning lighting and passages in the museum are often affected during the renovation, which has caused strong dissatisfaction among the operating stores. Li Huazhe, the chairman who bought the tragic lesson, also sold the project to samute, a developer in Osaka, in 20 13, and then fled hastily. In this way, the number of shops in Shoushan Pirui decreased step by step, and finally reconstruction began after the lease period of all shops expired on 20 14.
After eight months of renovation by developer Samut, Shoushan Pieri reopened. On the opening day, a member of AKB48 was invited as a contemporary speaker, which attracted 47,000 spectators.
Since then, although there is still a gap with the peak period, it has finally survived among the surrounding competitors. Osaka developers who run shopping centers attribute it to the following three measures.
First, format matching.
First, determine the main store. Have foreign capital h &；; Foreign brands such as M, Zara and Gap are the main stores. The area of these three or four main stores has reached 1.5 million square meters, accounting for one-third of the whole, and they are concentrated in the center of the shopping center. Moreover, in order to make the mobile line more efficient, these main stores have been changed into one for two, so that more people can go to the second floor.
Secondly, introduce the local brands that Shiga County does not have. For example, the quality women's wear' Azuru' is the first time to enter Shiga County, and the British brand' Rodeku' is the first time to open a shop in Kansai. With these well-known but slightly less well-known shops in the local area, plus several major stores, the framework between formats was quickly established.
Finally, the World Food Zone was established. It brings together various cuisines from Emei, Southeast Asia and China.
The second is to introduce indoor zoos.
A small indoor zoo was introduced, which contains birds and reptiles, crocodiles and lions, and owls, lizards and parrots can also touch them directly. Tickets for senior high school students are 1000 yen (62 yuan RMB) and children are 600 yen (37 yuan RMB). Lovely animals really attract many families. "I will bring my children's families here to see small animals during the holidays" (a 30-year-old Cao Jin female)
The third is high-altitude exploration.
In addition, in order to increase the sense of experience, Shoushan Piri set up a high-altitude adventure zone. Covering an area of 83,865,438+0 square meters, this area is composed of many climbing frames and overhead cables four and eight meters high, much like some facilities in China outdoor camp.
If Pieri, who is guarding the mountains, is compared to a person, his fate is ill-fated mainly because of congenital gene defects and an inactive father. His own father was undoubtedly very miserable and eventually went bankrupt, but in the final analysis, it was a failure of Daiwa System's investment. For a commercial project, it is difficult to make the project produce long-term benefits for the purpose of sales from the beginning. Compared with commercial developers in Hongkong, many developers in Chinese mainland rarely hold the idea of operating commercial projects for a long time, such as Pan Shiyi's SOHO project, which was sold as soon as it was built. However, these enterprises are also suffering. If they don't pay back the money quickly, it's easy to interrupt the cash flow. How to draw chestnuts from the fire and dance on the tip of a knife is a test for today's developers. In this regard, large developers such as Mitsui Real Estate and Mitsubishi Land Research Institute in Japan and Aeon, a large retailer, have done a good job and will have the opportunity to set up special research in the future.