In the first half of 20 12, the grain price in the international market was generally stable, with some varieties fluctuating. In June, the price level of wheat, corn and rice was basically the same as that of 20 1 1, while the price of wheat and corn was lower than that of 2011in the same period, and the price of rice increased year-on-year. From the second half of the year, the global economic environment and the relationship between grain production and demand will have a restraining impact on international food prices. It is expected that the international food price will fluctuate slightly, so it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the wheat market.
In the first six months of 20 12, the overall price of corn in the international market fluctuated slightly. Due to the dry weather in the western plains of the United States, Ukraine, Russia and other wheat-growing areas, wheat prices rose by 65,438+07% in mid-May, but in the second half of the year, with the cooling of weather factors, wheat prices began to drop significantly. Mainly affected by the government's purchasing and storage policy, the price of rice in the Thai market rose sharply in May, from $490 to $556 per ton, with an increase of 13.5%. In June, the FOB price of American hard wheat and the futures price of Chicago soft red winter wheat were US$ 302/ton and US$ 233/ton, respectively, down 9% and 65,438+00% year-on-year. The US corn spot and Chicago corn futures prices were US$ 246/ton and US$ 232/ton, respectively, down 65,438+00% and 65,438+08% year-on-year; The export price of Thai rice (including 25% broken rice) and the brown rice futures price of Chicago Board of Trade were $560/ton and $333/ton, respectively, up 16% and 6% respectively.
The overall improvement of the relationship between global grain production and demand and the instability of global economic trend are the two major factors that have dominated the trend of international food prices since 20 12. From the second half of the year, the two major factors will still restrain the rise of international food prices, and generally will continue to fluctuate slightly.
At the end of June, the EU meeting reached a huge economic stimulus plan, and the European debt crisis seems to have made better progress than expected. However, the deep-seated problems of economic development in Europe and the United States have not been fundamentally solved, the economic data of developing countries are not good, and the motivation for the sustained and upward development of the global economy is still insufficient, which will inevitably lead to a big repetition of international commodity prices in the second half of the year, and the expected rebound trip of some institutions may be lower than their expectations, which will have a restraining effect on international food prices.
Judging from the relationship between production and demand in the global grain market, the global grain output increased in 20112 years (from June of that year to September of the following year), and the total output was slightly higher than the demand, in which the production and demand of wheat were basically balanced, and the production of corn and rice was slightly higher than the demand; The consumption ratio of grain stocks is maintained at a high level. According to the report of USDA, the global grain output in 20112 increased by 4.82% compared with the previous year, reaching 2.303 billion tons, slightly higher than the demand by 0. 17%, which reversed 2010/kloc-0. The inventory consumption ratio reaches 20. 1%, so the global food supply is guaranteed from now until the end of 20112, and the food price will not change much.
From the new grain production year starting from June+10, 5438, the global grain output continued to increase, with the output exceeding the demand for two consecutive years and the surplus slightly expanding. The inventory consumption ratio remains at a high level of 20.3%, and the relationship between production and demand in the global grain market continues to improve compared with the previous year, which will curb international food prices from both supply and demand and market expectations.
According to the forecast report of USDA, the world grain output in 201213 is estimated to be 2.37 billion t, an increase of 2.9 1% over the previous year. The demand was 2.355 billion t, up by 2.43% over the previous year, and the surplus increased from 4,654.38+0,654.38+0,000 t in the previous year to 6,543.8+0,533 t; Inventory was 478 million tons, up 3.32% year-on-year. Among them, wheat yield is lower than demand, corn yield is higher than demand, and rice production and demand are basically balanced; The ending inventory was 478 million tons, an increase of 3.32% over the previous year. This relationship between supply and demand in the grain market is conducive to maintaining price stability.
In the later period, international food prices should mainly focus on wheat. From the perspective of production and demand, the global wheat will be in a tight balance in 20112 years, but it is predicted that the wheat yield will decline in the new year, the output will be in short supply and the inventory will drop significantly.
USDA estimates that the global wheat output in 20 12/ 13 will be 672 million tons, which is 3. 19% lower than the previous year. The demand was 682 million t, down 2.0 1% from the previous year. The ending inventory was 65438+86 million t, down 5.0 1% from the previous year. At present, winter wheat in the northern hemisphere is in the harvest period. Due to the unsatisfactory weather conditions in the previous period, some institutions still have the possibility of lowering their expected output. In the future, spring wheat will enter a critical period of growth, and the market is likely to use the weather conditions for speculation. In addition, from the past, every time the food price rises, there is a variety that takes the lead in rising, with wheat leading the rise many times. 20 12 coincides with the tense relationship between wheat production and demand, and it has the conditions of rising, so it should be paid attention to.
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