Short-term uncertainty increases
USDA reduces global cotton production and increases consumption. According to the monthly report of cotton supply and demand in 10 of USDA, in 2020/202 1 year, the global output decreased by 900,000 bales, the consumption increased by1500,000 bales, the import increased by 500,000 bales, the inventory decreased by 2.7 million bales at the end of the period, and the inventory consumption ratio was 89%. Hurricanes continue to cause concerns about US cotton production. By the end of 2020 10/8, the cotton bolling progress in the United States was 92%, which was 5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year and 1 percentage point lower than the average of the past five years. The progress of cotton harvest in the United States was 34%, 4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, which was the same as the average of the past five years. In the United States, 40% of cotton grew well, which was the same as last week, increasing by 1 percentage point compared with the same period of last year, and the proportion of poor seedlings was 33%, which was 3 percentage points higher than last week.
1, three reasons for the post-holiday surge. The background of this round of increase lies in the macroeconomic recovery and the superposition of agricultural products. Since the cotton futures fell below the 10,000-yuan mark for the third time in the history of March 23rd, the macro-recovery logic boosted the commodity market, and the varieties rose in rotation. In particular, the agricultural products sector performed particularly well. In this rising atmosphere, the center of gravity of cotton prices keeps moving up. However, unlike other agricultural products, the recovery speed of downstream textile and garment industry is slow.
2. The fundamentals of cotton in 20 19/2020 showed a pattern of oversupply, which led to the slow rise of cotton prices. The start of this round of market lies in the high price of seed cotton. Due to the expansion of Xinjiang ginning factory, the cotton processing capacity in Xinjiang is much greater than the cotton output. This year, the output of seed cotton increased but the quality decreased, which caused concern about the quantity of deliverable goods. The purchase price of seed cotton keeps rising.
3. According to the survey data of the national cotton market monitoring system, by 20201October 23rd, the national new cotton picking progress was 7 1.9%, up by 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, of which Xinjiang picking progress was 72.6%; The national sales rate was 85.9%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, of which the sales rate in Xinjiang was 9 1.9%. According to a survey of 60 large and medium-sized cotton processing enterprises, as of1October 23rd, the national processing rate was 37.9%, up by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, of which Xinjiang processing accounted for 37.6%.