There are four methods for fund companies to calculate the valuation of suspended stocks with heavy positions, namely, index return method, comparable company method, market price model method and valuation model method.

At present, the mainstream method is the exponential income method. Simply put, it is to calculate the increase of suspended stocks during the suspension period, rather than the increase of the corresponding industry index.

Where are the arbitrage opportunities in this case? That is, the compensatory increase of suspended stocks after resumption of trading exceeds the industry increase.

In order to achieve this arbitrage, it is necessary to have more room to make up for the increase after the resumption of trading, ahead of the industry index.

The resumption of North-South car trading at the end of last year is a good example. At that time, the total share of CNR of three funds reached more than 10% of the fund's net asset value, namely Great Wall Brand (200008), Harvest You Xuan (070027) and Jianxin Initiative (5300 12).

Let's look at the arbitrage space of suspended stocks: According to relevant statistics, during the suspension of China South Locomotive and China CNR (20141027 ~ 20141230), the average increase of high-speed rail concept stocks reached 40%, and the increase of high-speed rail line construction stocks was even greater. Although some funds have been valued according to the index income method, the index income method still tends to underestimate the valuation of China CSR and CNR. For example, the reference index adopted by Great Wall Brand Fund only rose by 1 1.80% during the period, which means that there is still some arbitrage space with related funds.

Next, compare the funds of three heavy-duty north-south cars, which one to choose? Among the three funds, the Great Wall brand has the highest proportion of heavy positions, with a large scale of more than 8 billion, which is not easy to be diluted by the new fund. In addition, the fund has suspended the subscription and conversion of more than 5 million yuan at that time, and there is no possibility that large institutional investors such as the insured will greatly dilute the income, which is the best fund choice for North-South car arbitrage.

Tips for food guides:

First, when choosing this kind of arbitrage fund, the higher the proportion of suspended stocks, the better. Of course, the first thing is to choose from the top ten stocks.

Second, if the growth rate of the industry index is low, or even lags behind the broader market, arbitrage is more likely to succeed.

Before using this arbitrage method, you must confirm whether to use the index income method to value the suspended stocks. You can check the announcement of the fund company or call customer service directly.

Fourth, the trend of the broader market must be considered in the arbitrage of stocks with heavy positions. This method is relatively safe in the big bull market, but the stock market is not cute at all recently, which is likely to cause the profits of arbitrage suspended stocks to be insufficient to make up for the losses of other stocks in the fund.

5. Finally, it is necessary to consider whether there are a lot of surging arbitrage funds to dilute the weight of the suspended shares, so there is no way.

One of the advanced skills: dealing with the suspension of the fund "Black Swan"

The black swan event is a very unpredictable and unconventional event, which usually causes negative reactions or even subversion in the market chain. The "black swan" has come, and the fund that bought the "black swan" can't run away. Do we have to run? When do you run?

The first thing we need to know is: what will the fund company do if there is a "black swan" in the suspended stock of the fund?

Take the Zhangzidao (002069, Guba) incident in June+10 last year as an example. At that time, the company found that the inventory of some scallops was abnormal, which affected the profit of 760 million yuan. The forecast profit of Zhangzidao in the first three quarters suddenly turned into a huge loss of 865.438+0.2 billion yuan.

A big change in performance means that the positive suddenly becomes negative. This black swan incident will inevitably lead to the collapse of Zhangzidao stock after the resumption of trading. What about the fund in Zhangzidao? They have adjusted the valuation of Zhangzidao. For example, Penghua Fund Company adopts the cash flow discount method (one of the valuation model methods) to adjust the valuation price to 1 1.27 yuan/share. At that time, the share price of Zhangzidao was 15.46 yuan, which means that Penghua Fund was lowered to the level of three daily limit boards in advance to prevent the possible daily limit after Zhangzidao resumed trading.

What happened later proved that Penghua Fund did have foresight. On February 8, 65438, Zhangzidao stock resumed trading, and was blocked without objection. The next day, it fell again, but the third daily limit was quite dramatic. Before the close, it was opened by a huge amount of funds and rose rapidly, only closing down by 1.44%, with a turnover of nearly 900 million yuan in 15 minutes. After some tossing, the stock price tends to be stable.

The advantage of this is that the loss will be deducted from the fund assets at one time, reducing the subsequent impact on the net value and reducing large-scale redemption. Once the fund company does this, it means that the potential loss of investors has become a fait accompli, and even if the fund is redeemed, the risk cannot be avoided.

Now let's talk about what we should do:

First, in the face of "black swan" stocks, we should look at the proportion of heavy positions, judge the impact of stock price decline on the net value of the fund, and then consider the next step. If the position is not too heavy, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being.

Second, if the impact is greater, then there are several ways:

1, spelling speed. Redeem the fund before the fund company reduces its valuation. The announcement of Penghua Fund in the above picture is 165438+ 10/month. The time for Zhangzidao to issue a bad announcement is 65438+1the evening of October 30th. It can be seen that the fund company responds quickly! Our humble citizens should not fight. ...

2. Convert funds. If the fund has not been redeemed before the fund company, it is also a good way to save the handling fee by changing the "poisoned" fund into a health fund without the "black swan" heavy position.

3. Redeem the fund. This is the last resort. If you think that the stock will continue to fall after the resumption of trading, which will have a subsequent impact on your foundation, then you must calculate before redemption: Can your fee loss offset the loss of the net value of the fund in the later period?

However, the food guide suggested not to redeem the fund easily. First of all, fund companies have reduced their net worth, and redemption can't save too much loss.

Secondly, investment funds are long-term transactions, and the investment ability of fund managers is the most important factor in considering funds. The "black swan" incident itself was unexpected. Who hasn't stepped on a few black swans when he was young?