The price of peanuts has continued its steady and strong trend since late February.
Compared with the third quarter of last year, the price of cattle has dropped by more than 2 yuan, and the price of a cow has been reduced by more than 2,000 yuan. The price of sheep has a good trend, with an increase of more than 1 yuan compared with the previous year.
In the last half month, the price of pigs is also ideal, and it continues to rise.
Urea has dropped.
In recent days, the urea market has continued to run weakly, and the prices of manufacturers in mainstream areas in China have been lowered 10-50 yuan/ton.
Specific to the changes in various regions, some enterprises in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the mainstream turnover of small and medium-sized particles was around 2750-2780 yuan/ton; Anhui enterprises cut 10 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of small particles is about 2750-2830 yuan/ton; The price of Guangdong enterprises is lowered by 30-40 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price of small and medium-sized particles is about 2,860-2,900 yuan/ton.
Recently, the price of urea has stopped falling, which I think is mainly related to the following logic:
1, although there is a demand for green manure in some areas, the demand is relatively scattered, and the support for urea price is weak.
2. Previously, the parking enterprises have gradually returned to normal, and the daily output of urea has rebounded to normal level.
3. The industry is still dominated by just-needed procurement, and enterprises are cautious in replenishing goods.
4. The price of coal, an important raw material of urea, dropped significantly, driving the price of urea down.
In the short term, the overall supply of urea is at a high level, and there is no effective positive information stimulation on demand. It is expected that the price will continue to run downwards.
Peanuts have gone up
Recently, the domestic peanut spot market price has continued to be stable and strong. After adjustment, the price of Henan Baisha Tongmi rose to about 5.8-5.9, Shandong Haihua Tongmi rose to about 5.5-5.6, Liaoning 308 Tongmi rose to about 5.85-6.0 and Jilin 308 Tongmi rose to about 5.9-6.0.
The recent increase in peanut prices mainly has the following logic:
1. With the consumption of peanuts in the early production areas, the level of surplus grain is low, which makes it more difficult for traders to replenish stocks, and they are more willing to bid, and at the same time, they actively raise the purchase price.
2. The price of imported peanuts has risen, and the price has risen with the domestic market, thus pushing the price of domestic peanuts.
3. The terminal catering consumption resumed, the demand for peanut oil increased, and the demand gap of oil plants widened, so it was forced to raise prices and collect grain.
Although the price of peanuts is rising, there are still unfavorable factors in the market, such as weak demand performance and slow consumption of surplus grain.
After the temperature rises, the storage difficulty of peanuts increases, and there is pressure for centralized shipment.
The supply of imported rice to Hong Kong will continue to increase, and the price of peanuts will be under pressure.
Need to remind everyone that with the increase in the spot price of peanuts, market risks are also accumulating, so don't chase after them forcibly.
Cattle prices have fallen deeply, while sheep prices have picked up.
Since the third quarter of last year, the price of cattle has been depressed. Compared with the price reduction of 2 yuan/kg in the third quarter of last year, the price of cattle with a weight of 1,000 kg sold is 2,000-3,000 yuan less, which further aggravates the losses of farmers.
At present, the cattle prices in East China 17.4- 18.7 yuan, Central China 17.3- 18.6 yuan, North China17.4-/8.6 yuan and Northeast China/Kloc-0.
The main reasons for the decrease in the price of beef are as follows: 1, the relatively high price of beef restricts the beef consumption demand in the market, and it is currently in the low season of meat demand.
2. The price of pork dropped significantly, which seized some beef markets.
3. Previously, the price of cattle was relatively ideal, the profit of raising cattle was relatively high, and the breeding amount of cattle was at a relatively high level.
In the short term, it is difficult to change the state of oversupply of cattle prices, but the production capacity of beef cattle in the market is declining. There is also good news that Brazilian beef imports are suspended, which is of great help to the subsequent improvement of cattle prices.
Compared with before the Spring Festival, the price of sheep is still ideal, with a kilo rising by more than one yuan. At present, the mainstream price of goats is around 14- 16 yuan/kg, and that of sheep is around 15- 17 yuan/kg.
On the one hand, the recovery of sheep price benefited from the improvement of epidemic situation, which led to the increase of mutton consumption demand.
On the other hand, thanks to the previous year's de-capacity, the production capacity of mutton sheep decreased significantly.
Although the price of sheep is picking up, it is generally believed in the industry that the real turning point of the price of sheep has not yet arrived, and the real rising cycle may need to wait until May and June.
Pig prices continue to rise.
In the last half month, the price of pigs continued to rise, and it got off to a good start on March 1 day, including Jiangsu, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jilin, Gansu and Southwest China, but the prices of pigs in North China, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Henan and Anhui are still decreasing.
After adjustment, the pig prices in East China are 7.8-8.5 yuan, Central China is 7.8-8.2 yuan, South China is 7.8-8.5 yuan, North China is 7.8-8.2 yuan, Northeast China is 7.8-8. 1 yuan, and Southwest China is 7.5-8 yuan.
The most important reason for the increase in pig price is that after the pig price has fallen to a low point, the willingness of the breeding end to stand at a high price has increased, and the increase in pig price has aroused the passion of the breeding end for secondary fattening, which has greatly reduced the supply of pigs in the market. Although the current consumption of pork is at a low point, the decline in supply exceeds the decline in pork.
In addition, due to the double influence of epidemic situation and high pork price, the amount of pork hoarded by residents was small, and the recovery of pork consumption after the holiday was earlier than in previous years, and the recovery of catering and tourism also led to an increase in pork demand.